WI-GOV (Marquette): Evers +1/+5

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1580257901590953986
https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1580258143480991744

[wbrocks67]

Pretty shocking to see Evers jump from +1 last month among RV to +5 now. Michels only at 41% among RV is pretty bad for him. Once again, I doubt the LV screen should show this much of a disparity.

Also Beglinger somehow getting 4% of the LV vote still is just too much for me.

[Devils30]

Considering the Johnson numbers, this is a very good poll for Evers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Considering the Johnson numbers, this is a very good poll for Evers.

It's called incumbency Johnson and Evers have had very little scandal and Johnson wasn't called before insurrection Committee over his insurrection remarks because it was a H Select Committee not Jt Committee Johnson helped block the Jr Committee so he didn't have to testify

Beasley and Ryan and McMullin are outperforming Barnes we can wind up with PA, OH NC and UT Sen seats and losing WI Sen but Evers wins

[Hollywood]

Just look at the Internals that includes 68% of voters that live within the Milwaukee City Limits. The end result is just a +1 Evers advantage among Likely Voters, and the wider gap of +5 among registered voters is primarily individuals that pick the independent in protest against Biden or the Democrat Party.  This poll gives the Democrats a turnout model that is better than 2018, and shifts the 2020 Party ID away from Republican to Democrat by 7 points among likely voters.  Yet, Evers kills Barnes by 6 points, and Michaels is statistically tied with Michaels among Likely Voters.  Democrats are blessed with 46% (+1 point advantage including leaners) of the voter share, and have essentially been reduced to their base + Democrat-Voting/leaning Independents.  It's becoming increasingly noticeable from the issues across all state polls that Republicans have a nice coalition of economic, education, foreign policy, immigration, and anti-woke.  The Democrats are the party of abortion, and I can see from polls like Marquette that it's not enough to gain substantive advantages in the suburbs.  I think all this loose talk of nuclear war mixed with inflation that is happening throughout Democrat and Neocon circles is also a possible X-Factor, because I've been finding pro-abortion and AA Democrats that are voting for Republicans due to fear that Biden's dealings with Russia, China, Iran, and their allies like BRICS, etc. is revealing huge cracks among the publics.  It's bubbling under the surface, particularly when exposed things like that NY nuclear attack PSA.    

I think there are some huge warning signs for Democrats that feel confident in blue states, because the polling models their preferred D outlets have been utilizing some fundamentally flawed assumption that were noticeable from the 2021 NJ and VA polls.  I have looked at some Republican and Democrat internals indicating soft support in Democrat areas, and big-time under-estimations in Trump Country.  Those polls indicating Republican victories in the Oregon Senate, as well as Districts in NY, CT, PA, NJ, NH, and other states due to white small town, suburban, and rural voters.  They have major problems in some solid districts in Texas, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, etc., due to shifts in Hispanic Voter priorities.  They are also seeing problems with black voter turnout.  It's also not as if they don't have weak candidates whom lean voters could completely abandon such as Fetterman.  

Despite polls showing strength, Democrats need to use all their resources to defend the GA, AZ, NV, and PA Senate, because FL, OH, and WI are most likely fools gold.  Why?  Because some of the internal politics at the district level are going to push Republicans closer to 50%, and these third party candidates like the one in 2021 VA will probably fall by the waist-side where they aren't taking votes away from Democrats due to attitudes about protesting Biden, far-left, and Democrat over-reach.  In a state like Florida, I think its clear that Rubio would be in a much closer race, or maybe in deep S###, if DeSantis wasn't buoying the entire ticket.  Demmings is actually a decent candidate that has a lot of money-propping up her image.  Probably one of the better Black Democrat Candidates in the Country.
And Rubio is hated by many Republicans (Party Leaders have discussed anti-Rubio sentiments at  Meetings, because they realize it's a problem).  

[Sestak]

Wait, what?

[President Johnson]

Who are all the Evers/Johnson backers? Wisconsin is really a weird state. Their two senators are also very right-wing and left-wing by US standards. You would expect more moderate senators on both sides in a swing state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who are all the Evers/Johnson backers? Wisconsin is really a weird state. Their two senators are also very right-wing and left-wing by US standards. You would expect more moderate senators on both sides in a swing state.

Do you always take a poll literally you must take polls with a grain of salt Beasley and Ryan are outpolling Barnes Center Street Pac Ryan 49/38 and PPP Budd 46/45 and Fetterman 55/36and Kelly 54/36 and CCM 46/44  there is no way Barnes loses and we are competent in NC, OH and UT

Polls are flawed these are Pre Election polls not Exit polls they had Molinaro plus 8, Pat Ryan won by 3 and Palin was favored over Peltola
Biden Approvals are low but voters obviously like Ds better than Biden that's why Rs aren't plus 6 on GCB like they were in 2010

[Lief 🗽]

I think I’d rather be Evers than Michels here, but it’s obviously still a toss-up. Let’s just hope Barnes’s dumpster fire of a campaign doesn’t drag Evers down.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think I’d rather be Evers than Michels here, but it’s obviously still a toss-up. Let’s just hope Barnes’s dumpster fire of a campaign doesn’t drag Evers down.

Yeah, this is a great poll for Evers, but this is still Tossup.

[wbrocks67]

I think I’d rather be Evers than Michels here, but it’s obviously still a toss-up. Let’s just hope Barnes’s dumpster fire of a campaign doesn’t drag Evers down.

yes, the dumpster fire where they're tied in RV and Barnes has a better net favorable than Johnson does

[Calthrina950]

I think I’d rather be Evers than Michels here, but it’s obviously still a toss-up. Let’s just hope Barnes’s dumpster fire of a campaign doesn’t drag Evers down.

yes, the dumpster fire where they're tied in RV and Barnes has a better net favorable than Johnson does

This has been one of the most interesting things about this midterm cycle. Most polls have routinely shown Democrats with much higher favorability ratings than their Republican opponents, yet that hasn't necessarily translated into electoral success. Why is is that Johnson has been leading in most recent polls, when his approvals are lower than those of Barnes? Does this not suggest that many people who disapprove of Johnson are still voting for him because he aligns with them on policy more?

[Gass3268]

I think I’d rather be Evers than Michels here, but it’s obviously still a toss-up. Let’s just hope Barnes’s dumpster fire of a campaign doesn’t drag Evers down.

yes, the dumpster fire where they're tied in RV and Barnes has a better net favorable than Johnson does

This has been one of the most interesting things about this midterm cycle. Most polls have routinely shown Democrats with much higher favorability ratings than their Republican opponents, yet that hasn't necessarily translated into electoral success. Why is is that Johnson has been leading in most recent polls, when his approvals are lower than those of Barnes? Does this not suggest that many people who disapprove of Johnson are still voting for him because he aligns with them on policy more?

Folks love the idea of divided government.

[Alben Barkley]

I think I’d rather be Evers than Michels here, but it’s obviously still a toss-up. Let’s just hope Barnes’s dumpster fire of a campaign doesn’t drag Evers down.

yes, the dumpster fire where they're tied in RV and Barnes has a better net favorable than Johnson does

This has been one of the most interesting things about this midterm cycle. Most polls have routinely shown Democrats with much higher favorability ratings than their Republican opponents, yet that hasn't necessarily translated into electoral success. Why is is that Johnson has been leading in most recent polls, when his approvals are lower than those of Barnes? Does this not suggest that many people who disapprove of Johnson are still voting for him because he aligns with them on policy more?

Folks love the idea of divided government.

And they HATE the reality of it!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well, I'd rather see Evers up in a Marquette poll than Michels. Other than that I don't think I get much out of this poll in terms of either what it says new about this race or reassurances that Evers can pull off a win.

All I know for sure is that he will out-run Barnes. That's pretty damn obvious to say, naturally.

I think I’d rather be Evers than Michels here, but it’s obviously still a toss-up. Let’s just hope Barnes’s dumpster fire of a campaign doesn’t drag Evers down.

yes, the dumpster fire where they're tied in RV and Barnes has a better net favorable than Johnson does

This has been one of the most interesting things about this midterm cycle. Most polls have routinely shown Democrats with much higher favorability ratings than their Republican opponents, yet that hasn't necessarily translated into electoral success. Why is is that Johnson has been leading in most recent polls, when his approvals are lower than those of Barnes? Does this not suggest that many people who disapprove of Johnson are still voting for him because he aligns with them on policy more?

Folks love the idea of divided government.

And they HATE the reality of it!

Our populace is so dumb...

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

I have serious trust issues with Wisconsin polling these days.