Marquette: Johnson +6

[Unelectable Bystander]

This is amazing copium. Likely voter screen aside, having some kind of lead in Marquette is a necessary condition for democrats winning in Wisconsin.

[wbrocks67]

There is no way to reconcile stuff like the LV/RV difference here and say Dems won NY-19 because of higher propensity voters only.

Johnson is favored but pollsters really seem to be struggling badly in deciding what the electorate will look like.

apparently all those high propensity voters are just... sitting out a major November election

[Eraserhead]

Ugh, bummer. RV/LV split does seem a bit "dramatic".

[Brittain33]

Glad to see Wisconsin polling has improved enough since 2020 that we can go ahead and cancel the election on the basis of this poll.

[Devils30]

Let’s be honest. The attack ads worked against Barnes is because he took ridiculously far left positions in 2018-20. The DSCC never should have let this guy get the nomination.

There’s a reason Warnock, Kelly, CCM,Beasley, Ryan haven’t seen their standing fall much if at all over the past 6 weeks. It’s because none of them wanted to defund the police or abolish ICE.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1580259776264802305

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1580259776264802305

Yeah the Johnson +6 is the almost certain to vote. I would probably go with the very likely to vote Johnson +2

[wbrocks67]

Let’s be honest. The attack ads worked against Barnes is because he took ridiculously far left positions in 2018-20. The DSCC never should have let this guy get the nomination.

There’s a reason Warnock, Kelly, CCM,Beasley, Ryan haven’t seen their standing fall much if at all over the past 6 weeks. It’s because none of them wanted to defund the police or abolish ICE.

This seems a bit ridiculous imo. He's still at a better net fav than Johnson and tied in RV after *all* of that. That's not nothing.

[Senator Incitatus]

It's not quite over, but this is about as good a poll as Johnson could hope for.

[Calthrina950]

It's not quite over, but this is about as good a poll as Johnson could hope for.

Agreed. But what about the continuing debate over the RV/LV split? Which one is the more reliable metric?

[Brittain33]

Glad to see Wisconsin polling has improved enough since 2020 that we can go ahead and cancel the election on the basis of this poll.

And to be clear, I still have this as Lean R because of RoJo’s past two wins and the closeness of the state in 2020, and Barnes only has a chance because of Dobbs… but too much is unknown about the election for me to write it off.

[Hollywood]

One hell of a likely voter screen, race is tied among RV's.

I have said it before so this is not just unskewing a poll to fit my liking but I think RV polls give a better view of the state of the race. A bad LV screen makes for a bad poll.

I disagree.  A RV poll does not accurately portray the partisan demographics of voters, and polls would have been much better at representing some of the narrower leads Democrats held if they implemented a likely voter model.  Yes.  LV polls can be wrong when incorrect assumptions are built into the polls, but RV polls do not account for inactive voters, motivations, enthusiasm, or errors created by cell phone information.  A comparison of polls by Marquette in 2018 and 2020 demonstrate these issues, and naturally, demonstrate the need for pollsters to focus on 'likely' motivators that will drive voter results, as opposed to neglecting factors that they find inconvenient.  Trump was an issue in 2020, but there's almost no reason for voters to consider Trump.  Voters clearly don't care about Trump more than issues like the economy, illegal immigration, nuclear war with Ukraine, energy and food prices, education, extremist policies, and Biden's complete ineptitude.  I can prove it just by analyzing the Democrat numbers that point to a lack of enthusiasm and motivation to vote for their candidates, and the clear upward trend after they transitioned their entire campaign on Abortion.  Honestly, I've watched the pro-abortion argument melt at the bar when people point out that Biden could entangle us in a nuclear war with Russia and China.  I've never seen 30 people at Shenanigans come to an agreement that fast in my 10 years as a regular customer.  Most drinkers are pretty obstinate about politics and sports, but it doesn't take much fear-mongering to convince people that nuclear apocalypse takes priority.  Unlike the depictions mainstream media, calling someone a "Putin Puppet" is a sure fire way to get everyone in blue collar areas (black, white, gay, straight) to laugh at you until you finally start laughing at yourself.  

Republicans will almost surely have a partisan advantage in Wisconsin, and the keys to winning will come down to base turnout, as well as the margin of victory among Independents.  in the last three Marquette polls, Independents have trickled into the Republican camp.  Even Michels is winning them as Evers' advantage of 49%-38% (August) has reversed to a 44%-43% Disadvantage with the remainder consisting of voters protesting against Biden, Democrats, or both parties.  The numbers show third party voters going Republican when the third party is out of the equation. This an obvious trend that was taking place in 2021 that resulted in third party independent voters going Republican, and then there are only undecided Republicans left in play.  Can Democrats provide an argument explaining why 12% of Republicans won't go with Michels in the polling booth?  

[Old Man Willow]

Poll unskewing is so 2012.

[Yoda]

I'm going to be so very disappointed if/when Johnson is reelected. I thought Wisconsin voters had finally soured on this clown's utter nonsense and trumpism.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm going to be so very disappointed if/when Johnson is reelected. I thought Wisconsin voters had finally soured on this clown's utter nonsense and trumpism.

Have they really soured on Trumpism? After all, he just came ~20k votes short of winning the state in 2020, which was arguably a better year for national Dems than 2022 will be even with fairly optimistic outlook. Johnson is yet lucky again to run against a B-tier candidate and in a favorable national environment.

The RV/LV split is indeed staggering here and even I don't think a 6 pt. margin will happen. That said, Barnes' momentum from the summer has clearly faded.

Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm going to be so very disappointed if/when Johnson is reelected. I thought Wisconsin voters had finally soured on this clown's utter nonsense and trumpism.

Have they really soured on Trumpism? After all, he just came ~20k votes short of winning the state in 2020, which was arguably a better year for national Dems than 2022 will be even with fairly optimistic outlook. Johnson is yet lucky again to run against a B-tier candidate and in a favorable national environment.

The RV/LV split is indeed staggering here and even I don't think a 6 pt. margin will happen. That said, Barnes' momentum from the summer has clearly faded.

Tossup

Didn't Molinaro lead by 8 and Pat Ryan won by 3 MOE  is 5/6 pts, Rs don't come back from huge deficits but Ds can because Ds have black and Latino votes, Rs like Bailey is down 7 he doesn't have black or brown support to make up that deficit, what gave Pat Ryan the victory in MOE females vote, the Gender gap in GA is 51/42 with Females in that QU poll it's not an all male Eday

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm going to be so very disappointed if/when Johnson is reelected. I thought Wisconsin voters had finally soured on this clown's utter nonsense and trumpism.

Have they really soured on Trumpism? After all, he just came ~20k votes short of winning the state in 2020, which was arguably a better year for national Dems than 2022 will be even with fairly optimistic outlook. Johnson is yet lucky again to run against a B-tier candidate and in a favorable national environment.

The RV/LV split is indeed staggering here and even I don't think a 6 pt. margin will happen. That said, Barnes' momentum from the summer has clearly faded.

Tossup

Didn't Molinaro lead by 8 and Pat Ryan won by 3 MOE  is 5/6 pts, Rs don't come back from huge deficits but Ds can because Ds have black and Latino votes, Rs like Bailey is down 7 he doesn't have black or brown support to make up that deficit, what gave Pat Ryan the victory in MOE females vote, the Gender gap in GA is 51/42 with Females in that QU poll it's not an all male Eday

I'm really not sure whether Molinaro's election is a proper comparison. In 2016, basically no poll showed Johnson leading and he still won. In 2020, Biden underperformed polls and just barely edged out a win. That makes it likely WI polls don't underestimate R-support overall. The pciture definitely changed over recent weeks, which is why I moved this race back from Tossup to Lean R. Perhaps we're even closer to Likely as we speak.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Wooooooow
6 points difference ?

Odd given voter certainty is almost the same.

https://twitter.com/mulawpoll/status/1580258898984173570?s=46&t=2ea6TtzQlGJN...

democratic leaning independents probably explains it.

[Ferguson97]

6 point gap in RV/LV? I think Johnson wins, but that's a ridiculous gap.