AZ-Sen (Center Street) Kelly +22
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Author Topic: AZ-Sen (Center Street) Kelly +22  (Read 683 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« on: October 12, 2022, 10:02:27 AM »
« edited: October 12, 2022, 04:49:03 PM by Brittain33 »

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1580210629180559361?s=20&t=DmbtGsbAhV6D_XTXvNHcRA

SEN M.KELLY 54
Masters 32
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TheTide
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2022, 10:02:54 AM »

No.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2022, 10:03:53 AM »

Why are we getting so many polls in Arizona with Kelly leading by double digits? This also occurred in 2020. Kelly is in the driver's seat, but the final margin will be only a few percentage points.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2022, 10:04:22 AM »

Center Street PAC lol..

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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2022, 10:38:13 AM »

It's called Center Street PAC because putting stock in their polls is as hazardous as standing in the center of the street.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2022, 10:46:24 AM »

Yes, but I’m sure that NV Democrats will still outperform their polling this year and that those massive D leads in the Southwest (AZ-SEN, NM-GOV, etc.) tell us nothing about polling bias possibly reversing in a state like NV as well.
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Person Man
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2022, 10:47:21 AM »

I wish
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2022, 10:55:45 AM »

Yes, but I’m sure that NV Democrats will still outperform their polling this year and that those massive D leads in the Southwest (AZ-SEN, NM-GOV, etc.) tell us nothing about polling bias possibly reversing in a state like NV as well.

I mean, this is Center Street, which is one of the most egregious and consistent outliers of this entire cycle. Maybe not *entirely* fair to project their problems onto other pollsters.

That being said, agree on Nevada, I'm definitely not assuming any Democratic overperformance there this cycle.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2022, 11:04:55 AM »

Yes, but I’m sure that NV Democrats will still outperform their polling this year and that those massive D leads in the Southwest (AZ-SEN, NM-GOV, etc.) tell us nothing about polling bias possibly reversing in a state like NV as well.

It proves that partisan trends don't matter as much in Midterms as in Prez Kelly, Fetterman, Ryan, Shapiro, Barnes are gonna overperforning Biden 50 K leads in all these states and we can wind up with 65/60 M not 80/75 M votes and Warnock is up 7 in GA more than he won by 50 K votes
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2022, 01:41:51 PM »

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Can't wait to see his CO-03 poll. Lemme guess, is Boebert losing too?
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2022, 01:42:19 PM »

Joe Walsh has become too woke for polling.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2022, 01:44:43 PM »

Note that it's "only" +17 (55-38) among LV.

I think I've figured it out.  Joe Walsh decided to create a left-leaning version of Trafalgar. Wink
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2022, 02:43:03 PM »

Note that it's "only" +17 (55-38) among LV.

I think I've figured it out.  Joe Walsh decided to create a left-leaning version of Trafalgar. Wink

This is besides the point but imagine telling someone 10 years ago Joe Walsh would be creating a Dem hack polling company.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2022, 02:45:07 PM »

Note that it's "only" +17 (55-38) among LV.

I think I've figured it out.  Joe Walsh decided to create a left-leaning version of Trafalgar. Wink

This is besides the point but imagine telling someone 10 years ago Joe Walsh would be creating a Dem hack polling company.

And that Liz Cheney would be endorsing the Democratic candidate for Arizona governor.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2022, 02:46:44 PM »

Why are we getting so many polls in Arizona with Kelly leading by double digits? This also occurred in 2020. Kelly is in the driver's seat, but the final margin will be only a few percentage points.

I think all that suggests is that Masters struggles with Republican excitement. Still apparently does into October. Most of the base is still going to vote for him, and he'll definitely get 47% of the vote. As I said before, I think the result will be very similar to 2020.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2022, 04:10:19 PM »

Why are we getting so many polls in Arizona with Kelly leading by double digits? This also occurred in 2020. Kelly is in the driver's seat, but the final margin will be only a few percentage points.


Masters, Walker and OZ are DOA Masters won't get 47 percent
I think all that suggests is that Masters struggles with Republican excitement. Still apparently does into October. Most of the base is still going to vote for him, and he'll definitely get 47% of the vote. As I said before, I think the result will be very similar to 2020.
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