NV-Sen (Suffolk): Cortez Masto +2

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1580122508241424384?cxt=HHwWgMCi1ZTD3...

Pure tossup.

[wbrocks67]

Sounds about right. "Very likely to vote" has CCM +3, 47-44, basically the 2016 result, which I could see happening again here.

Note that the Hispanics sample has 90 people in it, too. Not much help there.

Undecided goes from 12% to 5%, no surprise that most of that goes to Laxalt since he was only at 38 last time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yep it's a 303 map, I told ya stop worrying about Barnes , Kotek and CCM and Sisolak Laxalt underpolled Sisolak on Eday

All the polls that have Johnson and LAXALT winning and Lombardo are flat wrong

[Devils30]

But the experts told me Laxalt had already won because Vegas is the Rio Grande Valley.

[HidingCommentary]

I'll note that the first poll in 2016 to show Cortez-Masto ahead after a month of Heck leading was the second week in October. Coincidence? Probably. Still fun to mention.

[Vern]

Well you can see Laxalt has the momentum from their last poll

[wbrocks67]

I have no idea if they're "right" but I also find it interesting that Suffolk has been finding realistic (to what you'd expect) approvals for Biden.

He's 42/53 approval here, -11. He's about -8 in LV/RV and -10 in adults right now, so you'd expect based on national performance in 2020 that he'd be about -10 to -12 in NV. And this lines up perfectly with that. The other polls in places like PA and AZ have seemed to line up with this as well.

That's what makes me a bit skeptical then when you get a result like in the CBS/YouGov polls where they have his approval like -22 in places like AZ, GA, MI, etc.

[wbrocks67]

Well you can see Laxalt has the momentum from their last poll

Much like the PA polls, wouldn't really say momentum rather than just consolidating the voters that he needs, especially the GOP. The last poll only had him at 38%, there was no way he was actually at 38%, and there's only up from there lol.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Sounds about right. "Very likely to vote" has CCM +3, 47-44, basically the 2016 result, which I could see happening again here.

Note that the Hispanics sample has 90 people in it, too. Not much help there.

Undecided goes from 12% to 5%, no surprise that most of that goes to Laxalt since he was only at 38 last time.

How do they only sample 90 Hispanics in a state like Nevada?

[xavier110]

Wow, CCM at 46 percent. Is that the highest she’s ever charted lol

[Sir Mohamed]

At least one NV poll showing her a lead again. Tossup remains tossup. I still tend to believe this seat flips and gets canceled out by PA. On the other hand, NV seems the GOP's FL. Hopes get up before the votes come in.