NC-SEN (PPP/Carolina Forward): Budd +1

[wbrocks67]

Budd (R) 46%
Beasley (D) 45%
Undecided 9%

https://twitter.com/ForwardCarolina/status/1579904518825062401

[kwabbit]

Last poll was Beasley 42 Budd 41 conducted in Late August. Continues to be an oddly sleepy race given how tight it is. Most people think Budd will win by a few points in the end and there hasn’t really been anything to contradict that position.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Poll done on behalf of a progressive Organization so you can probably add a couple points to Budd's margin, even more than PPP usual lean

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yeah, I doubt Beasley can close this out. Need a better national environment for this state to flip.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, I doubt Beasley can close this out. Need a better national environment for this state to flip.

That's why I never bothered getting my hopes up here. 51 seats (Democrats hold everything plus flipping Pennsylvania) is the best and most realistic that I personally think we should hope for.

[Skill and Chance]

NC polling should show the Democrat notably ahead to take a Democratic win seriously.

[Eraserhead]

There's definitely some upset potential here if Democrats have a surprisingly good night. Big if of course.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

NC polling should show the Democrat notably ahead to take a Democratic win seriously.

They were spot on in the 2016 gubernatorial race, but after the miss in 2020 skepticism is warranted here.

[Calthrina950]

Budd is in the driver's seat, but Beasley is mounting a respectable performance. The final margin will probably be within 5%.

[Devils30]

Basically the Ds need a national polling over performance like 2012 to flip this one. You never know but for a state that was close to 6% more R than the national vote in 2020, hard to see.

[Lief 🗽]

It’s funny because with zero context, the polls show a toss-up. The question is whether NC will have the same significant polling miss as in 2014, 2016, and 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s funny because with zero context, the polls show a toss-up. The question is whether NC will have the same significant polling miss as in 2014, 2016, and 2020.

We still won NC Gov so the polling miss was exaggerating , Hagen ran against Liddy Dole another Female but she ran against Tillis in 2014 and Beasley is running against Budd a conservative Liddy Dole was conservative but she lost in the R primary in 2000, Prez she wasn't conservative enough that's why some conservative in 2008 switched to Hagen and went to Tillis in 2014

[Devils30]

It’s funny because with zero context, the polls show a toss-up. The question is whether NC will have the same significant polling miss as in 2014, 2016, and 2020.

If the Dems win this one they’re well on the way to keeping the House and at least 52 in Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know users like to analogize Kay Hagen but Hagen won running against Liddy Dole it's 17 blk in NC and 12 percent blk in OH, the reason why Rs may win FL is that Rubio takes away the Latino vote that otherwise that would go to Ds that's why DeSantis almost lost with Rick Scott I. 2018 but safer now due to Rubio but we still won't know until Eday I'd we can win one of these red states

That's why in 24 even if DeSantis is the nominee for President and he is still losing to Biden 45/42 he can lose FL not this yr with Rubio but with Rick Scott, Biden may convince Gwen Graham to run against Scott so he can put FL in play, Gwen Graham should thank her lucky stars that she didn't take the LT Gov if DeSantis and Rubio wound up winning and it's still an if the October Surprise was Hurricane IAN that turned out to be Katrina not Ida