GA SEN TRAFALGAR R POLL Warnock +1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1579953350690283520?s=20&t=k2dqt28CIbLYFxmTs02Shg

SEN WARNOCK 46
Walker 45
Oliver 4

[Sestak]

The GOP polls are heeling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Warnock up in Trafalgar?  How interesting.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Their last poll had Walker up 48-47, for reference.

[Calthrina950]

Warnock has the advantage, although it will still be a close race.

[Cyrusman]

This is going to a runoff. I think Warnock will win the general but get under 50%. A runoff may be Walkers best bet at this point. His hope should be

- Force a runoff where the GOP already has a senate majority so the Dems aren't as motivated
- Allow more time to pass from the recent negative news he has received
- Hope the economy gets worse and worse and gas prices surge in the South

[7,052,770]

This is going to a runoff. I think Warnock will win the general but get under 50%. A runoff may be Walkers best bet at this point. His hope should be

- Force a runoff where the GOP already has a senate majority so the Dems aren't as motivated
- Allow more time to pass from the recent negative news he has received
- Hope the economy gets worse and worse and gas prices surge in the South

On the other hand, Warnock going to a runoff might mean Governor Abrams just like it meant Senator Ossoff 2 years ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs won't have the majority because if we lose NV we flip PA that still gives Ds 50 seats and Warnock would still be in the Lame Duck session of Congress it still would be 51/50 with Harris as the tie breaker AZ and PA are Gone for Rs

We still have wave insurance seats WI, NC, OH and UT the Rs aren't Guaranteed to win those, Ryan and Beasley have raised enough money to win them without Natl Ds the only thing Rs are Guaranteed is the H

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Warnock +1 in Trafalgar likely means he's up high single digits in reality.

[Calthrina950]

Warnock +1 in Trafalgar likely means he's up high single digits in reality.

Trafalgar also has Kemp up by 9. Does this mean that's he leading by only 2-3 points?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yep, the abortion revelations are doing Walker in.

The big question is now just whether Warnock wins outright or in the runoff, because I think it's fair to say that Walker winning on election night is out of the question.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Warnock +1 in Trafalgar likely means he's up high single digits in reality.

Trafalgar also has Kemp up by 9. Does this mean that's he leading by only 2-3 points?

No, I don't believe that Trafalgar "unskews" their polls in such a way that you can just apply a uniform swing like that.  I think they try to make races look closer than they really are, sometimes in both directions.

[7,052,770]

Warnock +1 in Trafalgar likely means he's up high single digits in reality.

Trafalgar also has Kemp up by 9. Does this mean that's he leading by only 2-3 points?

Probably not, though that result would probably be in the margin of error of the polling average.

[Minnesota Mike]

This is going to a runoff. I think Warnock will win the general but get under 50%. A runoff may be Walkers best bet at this point. His hope should be

- Force a runoff where the GOP already has a senate majority so the Dems aren't as motivated
- Allow more time to pass from the recent negative news he has received
- Hope the economy gets worse and worse and gas prices surge in the South

A runoff is not likely IMO.  The Libertarian will end up getting 1-2%, that makes it a mighty small window to hit for a runoff.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is going to a runoff. I think Warnock will win the general but get under 50%. A runoff may be Walkers best bet at this point. His hope should be

- Force a runoff where the GOP already has a senate majority so the Dems aren't as motivated
- Allow more time to pass from the recent negative news he has received
- Hope the economy gets worse and worse and gas prices surge in the South

LOL. If there is a runoff Warnock is more likely to win by double digits than lose. Have you seen the results of the special elections this year? Non college white Republicans are sitting out of Non November elections. Walker's only prayer is getting 50 % in November when those people will actually vote

[Vosem]

Their last poll had Walker up 48-47, for reference.

Yeah, Trafalgar has actually always been weirdly bearish on Walker. It looks like a polling consensus of the scandal costing Walker 2-4 points, though. Which I imagine are pretty illusory in any case.