FL 13 DAVID BINDER RESEARCH TIED RACE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1579889075833565184?s=20&t=L4WhMYJdAl0lAQf8Va3WVg

LYNN 47
Luna 47

[swf541]

Appears to not be an internal, is today weird house polling numbers day?

[2016]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

This seat could help decide who wins a majority.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

This seat could help decide who wins a majority.

Yes, in the sense that if Democrats are winning here then they've almost certainly held the House.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

This seat could help decide who wins a majority.

Yes, in the sense that if Democrats are winning here then they've almost certainly held the House.

Is the seat really that conservative and far off from the median CD?

[swf541]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

This seat could help decide who wins a majority.

Its Trump +6 (but trending Dem)

Yes, in the sense that if Democrats are winning here then they've almost certainly held the House.

Is the seat really that conservative and far off from the median CD?

[GeorgiaModerate]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

This seat could help decide who wins a majority.

Yes, in the sense that if Democrats are winning here then they've almost certainly held the House.

Is the seat really that conservative and far off from the median CD?

538 gives it a partisan lean of R+12.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

This seat could help decide who wins a majority.

Yes, in the sense that if Democrats are winning here then they've almost certainly held the House.

Is the seat really that conservative and far off from the median CD?

538 gives it a partisan lean of R+12.

Huh. I was thinking it was only like Trump+3 or something.

[Brittain33]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

This seat could help decide who wins a majority.

Yes, in the sense that if Democrats are winning here then they've almost certainly held the House.

Is the seat really that conservative and far off from the median CD?

538 gives it a partisan lean of R+12.

Huh. I was thinking it was only like Trump+3 or something.

It was seriously gerrymandered by DeSantis.

[swf541]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

This seat could help decide who wins a majority.

Yes, in the sense that if Democrats are winning here then they've almost certainly held the House.

Is the seat really that conservative and far off from the median CD?

538 gives it a partisan lean of R+12.

Huh. I was thinking it was only like Trump+3 or something.

It's Trump +6 in 2020, was higher in 2016, it had a small swing from 2016-2020.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

This seat could help decide who wins a majority.

Yes, in the sense that if Democrats are winning here then they've almost certainly held the House.

Is the seat really that conservative and far off from the median CD?

538 gives it a partisan lean of R+12.

Huh. I was thinking it was only like Trump+3 or something.

It was seriously gerrymandered by DeSantis.

Oh, I knew that. But I underestimated how much of an impact the R line-drawing had on the  topline numbers.

[2016]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

This seat could help decide who wins a majority.

Yes, in the sense that if Democrats are winning here then they've almost certainly held the House.

Is the seat really that conservative and far off from the median CD?

538 gives it a partisan lean of R+12.

Huh. I was thinking it was only like Trump+3 or something.

It was seriously gerrymandered by DeSantis.

Oh, I knew that. But I underestimated how much of an impact the R line-drawing had on the  topline numbers.

This Seat/Race has more to do with an overperformance of Charlie Crist then the Overall Political Environment. Crist is from St. Pete.

Democrats are struggling OR-6 and RI-2 tells me a lot where the House is trending at this Point in time.

[swf541]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

This seat could help decide who wins a majority.

Yes, in the sense that if Democrats are winning here then they've almost certainly held the House.

Is the seat really that conservative and far off from the median CD?

538 gives it a partisan lean of R+12.

Huh. I was thinking it was only like Trump+3 or something.

It was seriously gerrymandered by DeSantis.

Oh, I knew that. But I underestimated how much of an impact the R line-drawing had on the  topline numbers.

This Seat/Race has more to do with an overperformance of Charlie Crist then the Overall Political Environment. Crist is from St. Pete.

Democrats are struggling OR-6 and RI-2 tells me a lot where the House is trending at this Point in time.

...and the GOP struggling in Ohio house seats doesnt?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This District Race will be a tight one. Crist is from St. Pete. Still expect Luna to win here.

This seat could help decide who wins a majority.

Yes, in the sense that if Democrats are winning here then they've almost certainly held the House.

Is the seat really that conservative and far off from the median CD?

538 gives it a partisan lean of R+12.

Huh. I was thinking it was only like Trump+3 or something.

It was seriously gerrymandered by DeSantis.

Oh, I knew that. But I underestimated how much of an impact the R line-drawing had on the  topline numbers.

This Seat/Race has more to do with an overperformance of Charlie Crist then the Overall Political Environment. Crist is from St. Pete.

Democrats are struggling OR-6 and RI-2 tells me a lot where the House is trending at this Point in time.

More generally, does Charlie Crist have a history of causing Dem overperformances in the  St. Pete area for other Dem candidates?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Nah. This is a safe R race. If it's even this close it might as well be a win.