SD-GOV (SDSU): Noem +4

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Noem: 45%
Smith: 41%

The one posted earlier in the forum by OC on the 8th is the same poll but was unpublished. These are the final results of the survey.

https://t.co/JIth2YJKkO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, we win the Gov race

[Senator Incitatus]

Think Noem will consistently underpoll because there are a number of reluctant Republicans who will come home for her on election night.

[President Johnson]

Smith may end up at 41%, I can buy that. What I'm not buying is the margin here. This race is Safe Republican.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I could maybe see Noem only winning by like 10 or so on a bad night for Republicans, but I have major doubts that it could be any closer than that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Smith may end up at 41%, I can buy that. What I'm not buying is the margin here. This race is Safe Republican.

Lol we have been thru this many times it's called wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I could maybe see Noem only winning by like 10 or so on a bad night for Republicans, but I have major doubts that it could be any closer than that.

If Noem wins you won't be able to update your R nut map and get it wrong

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I could maybe see Noem only winning by like 10 or so on a bad night for Republicans, but I have major doubts that it could be any closer than that.

If Noem wins you won't be able to update your R nut map and get it wrong

"If Noem wins you won't be able to change the fact that you have Noem winning"

Never change, no matter how much anyone else here tells you otherwise.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I could maybe see Noem only winning by like 10 or so on a bad night for Republicans, but I have major doubts that it could be any closer than that.

If Noem wins you won't be able to update your R nut map and get it wrong

"If Noem wins you won't be able to change the fact that you have Noem winning"

Never change, no matter how much anyone else here tells you otherwise.

Let me give a list of upsets

2008 Chambliss went a runoff
2010 Bennet beat Ken Buck
2012 Baldwin beats Tommy Thompson
2014 Bill Walker wins AK
2018 Kelly wins KS
2019  KY Beshear wins
2020 GA goes blue
2022 we won red AK you do realize AK was supposed to go to Palin not Peltola

I rest my case , I have been doing this since 20o4 and never make exact maps Kerry was supposed to win FL, Ford was supposed to win TN in 2006 and many users had George Allen winning in 2006

The only yr there was no upsets was 2016 when Hillary underperforming

[Progressive Pessimist]

Her, Pillen, and Stitt may under-perform, which is kind of sad, really; but let's get it out of our heads that upsets can happen to them, please.

[TDAS04]

Noem will win, but I’d be very surprised if she doesn’t underperform Trump in South Dakota.  In her 2012 reelection bid for House, she undperformed Romney. 

[Adam Griffin]

Still amazes me that so many people continue to be shocked cycle-after-cycle about this region tending to be far more open to statewide Democrats than federal ones:

4-STATE GOV, 2014-2018: R+10.41
4-STATE PRS, 2016-2020: R+25.73
4-STATE SEN, 2014-2020: R+29.01

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Carol Blood, James Smith and Joy Hofmeister may indeed be Govs and Barnes, Fetterman, Ryan, McMillan, Beasley may indeed be Senators 303 map with wave insurance

[TDAS04]

Still amazes me that so many people continue to be shocked cycle-after-cycle about this region tending to be far more open to statewide Democrats than federal ones:

I’m not questioning that regional data, but historically, South Dakota has been a lot more open to sending Democrats to Washington than electing them to state offices.  North Dakota is similar, except they’ve elected more Democrats.

Kansas, of course, is the opposite. 

[Hope For A New Era]

(To be clear, this is not going to happen, but)
just imagine if there's a sudden mass exodus from the Republican Party in the plains in this election that no one saw coming lol

I mean, historically Plains Republicans have always been moderate. I guess Dobbs and the extreme R candidates across the country this cycle could have been a "straw that broke the camel's back," but really, if it was going to happen, it would have happened already, in 2018 or 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

(To be clear, this is not going to happen, but)
just imagine if there's a sudden mass exodus from the Republican Party in the plains in this election that no one saw coming lol

I mean, historically Plains Republicans have always been moderate. I guess Dobbs and the extreme R candidates across the country this cycle could have been a "straw that broke the camel's back," but really, if it was going to happen, it would have happened already, in 2018 or 2020.

Don't be too sure Heidi Heidikamper win in 2012 and James Smith and Bengs can pull it off as we won AK which also have Native Americans

[citizenZ]

There always seems to be this shy Republican effect in polling. Being embarrassed to admit it until the voting booth seems like the obvious answer...but I don't feel that Republicans are ever embarrassed. So that tells me it's systematic in the polling industry.