AZ-SEN (OHPI) - Kelly +13, Libertarian at 15(!?)

[swf541]

Well I applaud them for not herding, but uh gonna need to see some other pollster showing the libertarian remotely near that.

[wbrocks67]

Surprised no one ever hypothesizes a correlation between NV & AZ polling when there’s a strong case to be made in favor of it. I largely expect polling miss to favor the same party in NV and AZ (and undecideds to generally break the same way in both states, even if not in the same ratio), which makes it all the more remarkable that Laxalt has consistently managed to lead in NV polls even as AZ polls have consistently shown Kelly romping (with the caveat that Kelly's % is closer to Cortez Masto's here than in previous surveys and that margin is of course more deceptive than vote share).

The bottom line is that there’s little reason to expect NV Democrats to magically outperform their pre-election polling on a night when AZ Republicans significantly exceed theirs, which makes an already dire and grim situation for NV Democrats even direr and grimmer.

The Arizona and Nevada populations are completely different, so I have no idea why they would be compared? Nevada's biggest population works weird hours and many don't even speak English. Arizona is a generally more "normal" state to poll. They both have a Latino-heavy population, that's literally the only thing that they have in common?

Didn't realize Arizona has a Las Vegas-style working force who is not easy to poll.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wow, Masters sure got a debate bump! Kelly is done for!

In all seriousness, I guess it wasn't such a hot-take that Victor was the real beneficiary of the debate. I at least buy that he could see his support increase, but his number here is absurd. I can't see him getting more than 4% on his best night. It's hilarious that he's taking more from Masters though, and if that ends up remaining the case, I'm fine with it. Usually I shake my fist at third parties taking from Democrats, but the reverse could be true here. And in spite of that, Kelly probably doesn't need a spoiler to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Rs don't win AZ, GA and PA their chances are gone in the Senate and we certainly gonna win NV and WI if we win those 3 reaffirm the 303 blue wall

[Vosem]

Gary Johnson's highest national poll was 13%. Gary Johnson did not talk about changing the age of consent. And the mood on third-party voting has soured since 2016 except for occasional special cases like Rainwater. I don't believe this at all.

AZ third-party U.S. Senate candidates actually consistently do quite well when they make the ballot; in 2010/2012/2016 they consistently got 5-6% for whatever reason.

(I agree that this poll is hot garbage, but the idea that Victor might really be at 6% or something, and a janky but honestly conducted poll would then find him at 15%, feels not necessarily insane. It goes to show how hard and unreliable honest polling is, though).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Marc Victor got 5% of the vote in a very close Senate race in 2012, and I can’t recall him getting nearly the attention that year that he just got from the debate.  So I don’t think this result is necessarily complete trash.  

He won’t get near 15% in the actual election, but I don’t see why high single digits are implausible, especially considering how personally disliked Masters is.  Obviously he at least merits inclusion in future polls.