AZ-SEN (OHPI) - Kelly +13, Libertarian at 15(!?)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1579819599985790985

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Doesn't MT Treasure has this Lean R, Lol

[Person Man]

Womp womp

[wbrocks67]

Not sure how Victor would play "spoiler" when Masters is only down 2 from the last poll.

[Sir Mohamed]

Garbage poll, do I really need to say more?

Reminds me of the 2020 poll with Kelly +17 weeks before the election. I'm expecting a similar result to 2 years ago.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Imagine polling worse than Dr Oz even after puppy gate lol

[soundchaser]

X to doubt, etc. Although OHPI has been pretty good in the past, I can't imagine this being anywhere near the final margin outside of a Democratic tsunami. Kelly's favorables look good, though.

Imagine polling worse than Dr Oz even after puppy gate lol

We haven't gotten any post-puppy polls (PPP).

[xavier110]

Well, it will be a victory for the Dems if Victor hits even 2-3 percent since most of those would be anti-Kelly voters who dislike Masters.

[kwabbit]

Haha did Victor get a huge debate bump? The huge number for him makes this poll not too useful but Kelly would be up big anyway.

[Spectator]

What trash is this

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Suffice to say I don't buy the Libertarian at 15, but I'm definitely not mad about this poll.

[MT Treasurer]

Surprised no one ever hypothesizes a correlation between NV & AZ polling when there’s a strong case to be made in favor of it. I largely expect polling miss to favor the same party in NV and AZ (and undecideds to generally break the same way in both states, even if not in the same ratio), which makes it all the more remarkable that Laxalt has consistently managed to lead in NV polls even as AZ polls have consistently shown Kelly romping (with the caveat that Kelly's % is closer to Cortez Masto's here than in previous surveys and that margin is of course more deceptive than vote share).

The bottom line is that there’s little reason to expect NV Democrats to magically outperform their pre-election polling on a night when AZ Republicans significantly exceed theirs, which makes an already dire and grim situation for NV Democrats even direr and grimmer.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Surprised no one ever hypothesizes a correlation between NV & AZ polling when there’s a strong case to be made in favor of it. I largely expect polling miss to favor the same party in NV and AZ (and undecideds to generally break the same way in both states, even if not in the same ratio), which makes it all the more remarkable that Laxalt has consistently managed to lead in NV polls even as AZ polls have consistently shown Kelly romping (with the caveat that Kelly's % is closer to Cortez Masto's here than in previous surveys and that margin is of course more deceptive than vote share).

The bottom line is that there’s little reason to expect NV Democrats to magically outperform their pre-election polling on a night when AZ Republicans significantly exceed theirs, which makes an already dire and grim situation for NV Democrats even direr and grimmer.

AZ, GA, PA are GONE

[Skye]

Surprised no one ever hypothesizes a correlation between NV & AZ polling when there’s a strong case to be made in favor of it. I largely expect polling miss to favor the same party in NV and AZ (and undecideds to generally break the same way in both states, even if not in the same ratio), which makes it all the more remarkable that Laxalt has consistently managed to lead in NV polls even as AZ polls have consistently shown Kelly romping (with the caveat that Kelly's % is closer to Cortez Masto's here than in previous surveys and that margin is of course more deceptive than vote share).

The bottom line is that there’s little reason to expect NV Democrats to magically outperform their pre-election polling on a night when AZ Republicans significantly exceed theirs, which makes an already dire and grim situation for NV Democrats even direr and grimmer.

You really wrote a thesis for a poll that has a random Libertarian getting 15% of the vote?

[Senator Incitatus]

He has gripped the third rail of age-of-consent politics with both hands (consensually, of course). Marc Victor will be the next Senator from Arizona.

[MT Treasurer]

You really wrote a thesis for a poll that has a random Libertarian getting 15% of the vote?

No — this is not the first poll to show Kelly with a substantial or even double-digit lead.

[Person Man]

If Democrats lose the senate, they have serious branding and organization issues that should force progressives into the long game.

[Spectator]

If Democrats lose the senate, they have serious branding and organization issues that should force progressives into the long game.

That much has been clear for a while Defund the Police and Abolish Ice aren’t positions that can win much outside Brooklyn and Portland.

[Person Man]

If Democrats lose the senate, they have serious branding and organization issues that should force progressives into the long game.

That much has been clear for a while Defund the Police and Abolish Ice aren’t positions that can win much outside Brooklyn and Portland.

I mean, if they stopped talking about those things and perhaps tried a new direction on Gun Violence/Gun Ownership, they can probably be competitive again provided they can find a new issue or double down on some old issue to produce excitement without making undecideds vote Republican by default.

[Aurelius]

Gary Johnson's highest national poll was 13%. Gary Johnson did not talk about changing the age of consent. And the mood on third-party voting has soured since 2016 except for occasional special cases like Rainwater. I don't believe this at all.

[Person Man]

Gary Johnson's highest national poll was 13%. Gary Johnson did not talk about changing the age of consent. And the mood on third-party voting has soured since 2016 except for occasional special cases like Rainwater. I don't believe this at all.

I mean, people are full of sh**t right now in general with these sorts of things.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I don't think the actual result will look much like this, but Masters is a uniquely awful candidate in a race where it's very hard to make the Dem into a boogeyman, which is a recipe for a third-party overperformance.

[President Johnson]

Why even bother to release a poll that's obviously such a dumpster fire?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why even bother to release a poll that's obviously such a dumpster fire?

Because it's the honest thing to do unless they found some methodology problem with it?  Polls are not exact (I like Pollster's term "stubbornly inexact") and they're going to vary, possibly wildly!  Withholding polls with odd-looking results would only feed the narrative that polls are better than they actually are.

[Skill and Chance]

This is just ridiculous.