RI-02 (Suffolk): Fung +8

[wbrocks67]

Fung (R) 45%
Magaziner (D) 37%
Gilbert (I) 5%
Undecided 13%

Dems: Magaziner 75, Fung 9, Gilbert 6, Undecided 9
Reps: Fung 93, Magaziner 1, Gilbert 3, Undecided 3
Independent: Fung 57, Magaziner 21, Gilbert 5, Undecided 18

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2022/10_4_2022_rhode_island_tables.pdf?la=en&hash=9F1D2E2BC7F493B614C82B4703782A67EB57E709

[wbrocks67]

Fung leading here, but he's also pretty much maxed out, which only gets him to 45. He's consolidated all the Rs and is already dominating the Indies.

Magaziner only at 75% among Ds, so a huge opening there to consolidate more.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m moving this to tossup/tilt R. Fung appears to be the personification of a strong New England republican candidate created in a lab.

[Devils30]

Fung leading here, but he's also pretty much maxed out, which only gets him to 45. He's consolidated all the Rs and is already dominating the Indies.

Magaziner only at 75% among Ds, so a huge opening there to consolidate more.

They need to push leaners. I have my doubts Fung will win independents by 36. It’s easy to see how Rs collapse in October here and OR-6 while Ds collapse in Ohio.

[Sir Mohamed]

All the polls from RI-02 showed a Fung lead now, didn't they? Seems like this one may actually flip. Lean R.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's concerning for Fung that he's maxing out at 45 or 46 in recent polls, but since he consistently leads in them I think it's reasonable to call this Tilt R for now.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's concerning for Fung that he's maxing out at 45 or 46 in recent polls, but since he consistently leads in them I think it's reasonable to call this Tilt R for now.

One was before Dobbs, one was an unambiguous junk poll, and then there’s this one.  This race is still no worse than Tilt D, arguably even Lean D.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Fung appears to be the personification of a strong New England republican candidate created in a lab.

only an atlas poster could say this specific combination of words

also let us not forget that he lost a clown car gubernatorial race in 2014

it is still lean d until something actually happens

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Will yall stop the denial? I mean, do you seriously expect polls to underestimate democrats with our current partt coalitions?? Jesus christ!

[Vosem]

Swing right here compared to the July Suffolk poll, right?

(Also it's hard for me to see this kind of thing in Rhode Island and not believe the Dobbs bump has mostly or entirely dissipated).

Will yall stop the denial? I mean, do you seriously expect polls to underestimate democrats with our current partt coalitions?? Jesus christ!

There are some fairly compelling reasons to think such a thing is possible, though I agree that I would not bet on it.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The GOP Ads in this district are very good and quite humorous. Clearly, they're paying dividends.

https://youtu.be/rM9DKLKQQT8
https://youtu.be/TOJL_NQDJnY

[smoltchanov]

Fung, while generally conservative, isn't MAGA-style. And district (and state in general) is more economically liberal, then socially liberal. Even mildly pro-life position will not seriously hurt Fung. Few percentages will decide in the end.....

[MT Treasurer]

Will yall stop the denial? I mean, do you seriously expect polls to underestimate democrats with our current partt coalitions?? Jesus christ!

There are some fairly compelling reasons to think such a thing is possible, though I agree that I would not bet on it.

What would those be, though? Unless you’re assuming a substantial drop-off in turnout among non-college-educated, less engaged Republican-leaning voters, I don’t see why such a thing would happen.