CO-SEN (Marist): Bennett +7

[wbrocks67]

RV:
Bennet (D) 48%
O’Dea (R) 41%
Someone else 2%
Undecided 9%

Bennet fav: 41/33 (+8)
O’Dea fav: 29/35 (-6)

“Definitely voting”:
Bennet (D) 49%
O’Dea (R) 43%
Someone else 2%
Undecided 7%

Bennet fav: 43/35 (+8)
O’Dea fav: 32/37 (-5)

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Marist-Poll-Colorado-NOS-and-Tables_202210071602.pdf

[Calthrina950]

Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean. This is pretty close to the margin I think Bennet will win by, and he's running behind Polis substantially in yet another poll.

[Senator Incitatus]

Interesting that O’Dea has terrible favorability. I assume this will lead to wailing about how the Republican Party has nominated yet another dismal candidate, costing them the race.

[MT Treasurer]

Interesting that O’Dea has terrible favorability. I assume this will lead to wailing about how the Republican Party has nominated yet another dismal candidate, costing them the race.

A major reason why O'Dea is hyped up as this uniquely "strong candidate" is because people want to avoid looking like complete hacks when they label every other Republican in races that are actually competitive (i.e. not CO and WA) "weak" or "overrated."

Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s just fine, but I don’t see what makes him more formidable than generic R. More importantly, however, none of this matters because no Republican was going to win this race.

Given that this is Marist, it’s a very underwhelming result for Bennet, though.

[Senator Incitatus]

Interesting that O’Dea has terrible favorability. I assume this will lead to wailing about how the Republican Party has nominated yet another dismal candidate, costing them the race.

A major reason why O'Dea is hyped up as this uniquely "strong candidate" is because people want to avoid looking like complete hacks when they label every other Republican in races that are actually competitive (i.e. not CO and WA) "weak" or "overrated."

Are you sure O'Dea isn't just "creepy" and has "weird vibes"? How could Republicans have blundered this so badly?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I know I'm cynical about the whole neutral year thing but these polls are not indicating that. Given that this is Marist, O'Dea is likely not trailing by that much. That would be indicative of something going on nationally. O'Dea is certainly stronger than Generic R unlike Masters/Oz/Walker but that alone would not get him to low single digits imo. It would take something else to do that

[GeorgiaModerate]

I know I'm cynical about the whole neutral year thing but these polls are not indicating that. Given that this is Marist, O'Dea is likely not trailing by that much. That would be indicative of something going on nationally. O'Dea is certainly stronger than Generic R unlike Masters/Oz/Walker but that alone would not get him to low single digits imo. It would take something else to do that

Margin of error, for one.  Never seek to find a narrative in any one single poll.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Interesting that O’Dea has terrible favorability. I assume this will lead to wailing about how the Republican Party has nominated yet another dismal candidate, costing them the race.

Yet he is probably, objectively the GOP's best Senate recruit to take on an incumbent this cycle, maybe Smiley too. If he is unpopular it is probably just because he is a Republican in a state that is growing increasingly hostile to the party.

[jamestroll]

Interesting that O’Dea has terrible favorability. I assume this will lead to wailing about how the Republican Party has nominated yet another dismal candidate, costing them the race.

A major reason why O'Dea is hyped up as this uniquely "strong candidate" is because people want to avoid looking like complete hacks when they label every other Republican in races that are actually competitive (i.e. not CO and WA) "weak" or "overrated."

Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s just fine, but I don’t see what makes him more formidable than generic R. More importantly, however, none of this matters because no Republican was going to win this race.

Given that this is Marist, it’s a very underwhelming result for Bennet, though.

The Colorado Senate race will more accurately reflect the states partisanship and national environment. Contrary to popular belief, candidate quality does matter.

if Colorado were an actual swing state, a Polis/O'Dea split could even be likely!

Before people say,"virginia 2021', it should be noted both tickets their campaigned very closely. And I barely knew there was a Herring or Ayala campaign and they campaigned on toxic issues for a pro business Dem leaning state.

But otherwise CO and VA are not comparable!

[Calthrina950]

Interesting that O’Dea has terrible favorability. I assume this will lead to wailing about how the Republican Party has nominated yet another dismal candidate, costing them the race.

Yet he is probably, objectively the GOP's best Senate recruit to take on an incumbent this cycle, maybe Smiley too. If he is unpopular it is probably just because he is a Republican in a state that is growing increasingly hostile to the party.

O'Dea has been subjected to an onslaught of negative advertising over the last few months, attacking him for his positions on abortion, Social Security, and the Inflation Reduction Act, among other issues. These ads have tied him to Mitch McConnell and have painted him as out of touch with Colorado. Bennet has far out-raised and outspent O'Dea. In fact, across the board in Colorado, the Democrats are heavily out-raising and outspending their Republican opponents, and are beating them decisively with regards to advertisements. Polis is running over Ganahl; Griswold is running over Anderson; Weiser is running over Kellner. This also helps to explain why Ganahl's negatives are also negative.

[Senator Incitatus]

Interesting that O’Dea has terrible favorability. I assume this will lead to wailing about how the Republican Party has nominated yet another dismal candidate, costing them the race.

Yet he is probably, objectively the GOP's best Senate recruit to take on an incumbent this cycle, maybe Smiley too. If he is unpopular it is probably just because he is a Republican in a state that is growing increasingly hostile to the party.

But consider this counterpoint! Here is a picture of O'Dea where he looks "slightly off":

[Calthrina950]

Interesting that O’Dea has terrible favorability. I assume this will lead to wailing about how the Republican Party has nominated yet another dismal candidate, costing them the race.

Yet he is probably, objectively the GOP's best Senate recruit to take on an incumbent this cycle, maybe Smiley too. If he is unpopular it is probably just because he is a Republican in a state that is growing increasingly hostile to the party.

But consider this counterpoint! Here is a picture of O'Dea where he looks "slightly off":

I didn't know until seeing her in an advertisement that O'Dea's wife is Hispanic. On a somewhat related note, I wonder what the Hispanic vote will look like in Colorado this year. I expect for it to swing Republican, as it did in 2020, but to a more appreciable extent. If we do see a Republican trend among Hispanics, that would further guarantee Boebert's victory in CO-03 and give Republicans a good chance at winning CO-08. I also imagine that Southern Colorado will swing further to the right, and it's possible that O'Dea wins Pueblo County while still losing statewide.

[Yoda]

It'd be funny if republicans ended up losing this race by like 1-2% after triaging it. Nothing stings more than a missed opportunity.

[Vosem]

The really notable thing about this poll is the tied GCB. That strongly implies, what, something like R+9-10 nationally? Unless you think that CO has an unusually strong swing towards the House GOP, and if anything there are more reasons to think the reverse. (Bennett at +7 -- or even CO as a whole at GCB D+7 -- is probably compatible with comfortable GOP victories in AZ/GA/NV/PA, for that matter).

(Another alternative is that this is a janky poll, but I think once you dig into it, or stop to think about how far left CO was in 2020, it's a very good one for the GOP).