UT-SEN: Deseret News/Dan Jones & Assoc - Lee +4 RV, +5 LV

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/10/10/23396679/evan-mcmullin-mike-lee-locked-utah-senate-race-poll-attack-ads

Oct. 3-6

801 RV:

Lee 41
McMullin 37

773 LV:

Lee 42
McMullin 37

[jamestroll]

Enjoy running out of water Utah. You get what deserve!!!

[Calthrina950]

Lee will win by much more than this, although it's clear that he will do significantly worse than in 2016 (when he received 68% of the vote). I think a result similar to that of 2020 is very plausible here.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Lee will win by much more than this, although it's clear that he will do significantly worse than in 2016 (when he received 68% of the vote). I think a result similar to that of 2020 is very plausible here.

Yeah, this is basically my impression of the race as well - I expect Lee will fall below 60% but will still win comfortably.

[Hope For A New Era]

Utah voters are pretty indecisive in recent years, it seems.

I think McMullin may surprise with his performance, but he won't win.

[7,052,770]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

[Calthrina950]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin is not going to win, but if he did, I believe he would caucus with the Democrats.

[Utah Neolib]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin is not going to win, but if he did, I believe he would caucus with the Democrats.

McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin would caucus with and vote like a moderate Democrat, based on his site platform.

McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.

That would definitely change if he were to win, which isn't what this campaign intends on doing.

Any senator that refuses to caucus with a party would be powerless off the floor because that is how committee assignments are determined.

[Calthrina950]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin is not going to win, but if he did, I believe he would caucus with the Democrats.

McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.

That's interesting, although he will probably align with the Democrats more on votes.

[Utah Neolib]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin is not going to win, but if he did, I believe he would caucus with the Democrats.

McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.

That's interesting, although he will probably align with the Democrats more on votes.

Eh if he somehow won he’d vote like Murkowski or Collins overall (which is fine as both are the most moderate republicans, take what you can in Utah I guess)

[NewYorkExpress]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin would caucus with and vote like a moderate Democrat, based on his site platform.

McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.

That would definitely change if he were to win, which isn't what this campaign intends on doing.

Any senator that refuses to caucus with a party would be powerless off the floor because that is how committee assignments are determined.

I guess McMullin, Murkowski, Sinema and Manchin (and maybe Collins) could form their own caucus? Is that what he's thinking here?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin is not going to win, but if he did, I believe he would caucus with the Democrats.

McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.

I do wonder if he would actually be able to make that happen in practice. Would he even get any committee assignments if he weren't a member of either caucus?

[Calthrina950]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin is not going to win, but if he did, I believe he would caucus with the Democrats.

McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.

That's interesting, although he will probably align with the Democrats more on votes.

Eh if he somehow won he’d vote like Murkowski or Collins overall (which is fine as both are the most moderate republicans, take what you can in Utah I guess)

That's not entirely different from what I was saying, though. At any rate, he would certainly be much more moderate than Lee, who has been one of the most conservative Republicans in the Senate throughout his tenure. But I will ask you, since you are a Utahn. Why has Lee's popularity diminished so much? And why is he set to do much worse than in 2016? Is it due to overall partisan trends in Utah? Or something more?

[Roll Roons]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin is not going to win, but if he did, I believe he would caucus with the Democrats.

McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.

I do wonder if he would actually be able to make that happen in practice. Would he even get any committee assignments if he weren't a member of either caucus?

I don't think so. He'd probably just end up caucusing with the Democrats.

[Utah Neolib]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin is not going to win, but if he did, I believe he would caucus with the Democrats.

McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.

That's interesting, although he will probably align with the Democrats more on votes.

Eh if he somehow won he’d vote like Murkowski or Collins overall (which is fine as both are the most moderate republicans, take what you can in Utah I guess)

That's not entirely different from what I was saying, though. At any rate, he would certainly be much more moderate than Lee, who has been one of the most conservative Republicans in the Senate throughout his tenure. But I will ask you, since you are a Utahn. Why has Lee's popularity diminished so much? And why is he set to do much worse than in 2016? Is it due to overall partisan trends in Utah? Or something more?

Partisan trends in Utah have made it more diverse and less Mormon. McMullin is a far stronger candidate than the Walmart cashier nominated by the democrats for the senate race in 2016. (Seriously, she was!)

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin is not going to win, but if he did, I believe he would caucus with the Democrats.

McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.

I do wonder if he would actually be able to make that happen in practice. Would he even get any committee assignments if he weren't a member of either caucus?

I don't think so. He'd probably just end up caucusing with the Democrats.

I don’t think he’d be able to do much but might eventually end up becoming an independent caucusing Republican ala Leahy/Sanders reversed.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin would caucus with and vote like a moderate Democrat, based on his site platform.

McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.

That would definitely change if he were to win, which isn't what this campaign intends on doing.

Any senator that refuses to caucus with a party would be powerless off the floor because that is how committee assignments are determined.

I guess McMullin, Murkowski, Sinema and Manchin (and maybe Collins) could form their own caucus? Is that what he's thinking here?

If the rules require proportionate partisan representation on all the committees, then it would still be very unlikely but I'm not entirely sure. That would never happen though.

Angus King said he'd caucus with whichever party made him a more effective senator and we saw where that went. McMullin's platform is that of a moderate Democrat, so it's pretty obvious he'd "think about it" after winning and then right before swearing-in announce that he's caucusing with the Democrats. Don't forget he got the endorsement of the UTDP, so he'd owe them that much.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

McMullin would caucus with the Democrats but on issues they don't agree with, he will not vote with the Dems, esp. if they're non critical for getting to a majority. He will be like a "Manchin" in the senate i guess in some ways. He'd definitely be free to vote for whatever he wants when it comes to indicting & convicting Trump for example where he easily would vote with the Dems.

McMullin would also have to pretend that he's an independent above all, but if he's honest about what he stands for, i think Democrats in the state will continue to support him. McAdams was also a moderate Democrat and in Wyoming, a neighbouring state, Democrats massively supported Liz Cheney. In Alaska, Democrats are also helping Liz Murkowski, even tho RCV makes that easier, but I assume Democrats will continue to support McMullin, the ones who are willing to, knowing that the alternative is far more likelier to be more conservative or at least from the Trump wing of the party.

The challenge is to unite never-Trump Republicans with Democrats and to balance between those very different voting groups. He certainly on an ideological level is very conservative anyways. In some ways, his independent presidential campaign in 2016 was to the right of Trump, but that was no different from Liz Cheney who did a similar thing.

Today in polls, Cheney's approval continues to be higher among Democrats than among Republicans. It's just, if there's a place where it is possible, it is Utah, not Wyoming (and Alaska perhaps as well), but it's still an uphill battle because the supply of never Trump voters is small, it's higher in Utah than elsewhere but it might not still be enough and there are also some Democrats that will not vote for him because of ideological issues, but a majority will. Those two combined still likely won't be enough to get him over the line.

And the ability to campaign and to finance his campaign are also relatively limited compared to Lee's resources (unless he underestimates the race, assuming it to be a walkover).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His vote will only matter if it's a 51/49 or 50/50 Senate and Ds still kept the H in 22/24 if it's 52 Ds his vote won't matter on the Filibuster which Ds are aiming for by winning OH and or NC

[Tintrlvr]

What party does McMullin caucus with if he pulls the upset? Still the Republicans? Is there any issue he'd vote with the Democrats on, or is just replacing a lunatic with a Romney type?

McMullin is not going to win, but if he did, I believe he would caucus with the Democrats.

McMullin has said that he will refuse to caucus with either party if he wins. My current prediction is almost exactly like the 2020 percentages with Lee possibly winning Grand County due to weird rural turnout in midterms.

I believe this, too. I think he'd sit as a true Independent, which we haven't had in the Senate in a long time. I think the last one was Wayne Morse, who sat on the crossbenches in 1952-1955 after leaving the Republican caucus and before joining the Democrats. Interestingly, all independents in the Senate since then have caucused with the Democrats (Harry Byrd, Jr., Jim Jeffords, Joe Lieberman and of course the two current independents).

He could in theory either now or after 2024 be a key swing vote, so he might manage to get committee assignments, etc. on that basis.