OH-SEN: Cygnal (R) - Vance +2

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://amgreatness.com/2022/10/10/republicans-poised-to-run-the-table-in-ohio-vance-dewine-yost-and-larose-all-lead-in-new-poll/

Vance 46
Ryan 44

Oct. 6-8, 640 LV

[windjammer]

Any previous polls from them?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any previous polls from them?

Not for this race that I can find.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

On the one hand, that's a pretty narrow lead from a Republican pollster.

On the other hand, this is Ohio.

I don't know what to make of this race.

[soundchaser]

That this poll also has DeWine +22 is...interesting.

[wbrocks67]

"Always vote" is Vance +1, 48-47.

"Mostly vote" is tied, 39-39.

Vance only +3 with Whites (47-44)

and this is an R internal!

[swf541]

The GCB is GOP +6, horrific for Ohio, OH-01 flips and Kaptur def holds with that number if not the other competitive district.

[Calthrina950]

Vance has been an awful candidate, and he's going to win simply because of the R next to his name.

[MillennialModerate]

Ok yeah, polling is broke

[Person Man]

Why are we only getting Republican internals?

[wbrocks67]

Why are we only getting Republican internals?

We've gotten a few Ryan/IMPACT polls but people ignore them because the last two showed Ryan+3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll is within MOE, so and it proves that if Ryan is only down by 2 he can still win

[Devils30]

R+6 generic ballot in Ohio would be 2% less than Trump and mean a Dem House and Senate.

[Yoda]

Why are we only getting Republican internals?

We've gotten a few Ryan/IMPACT polls but people ignore them because the last two showed Ryan+3

At this point I'd kill to be able to magically see the Ryan campaign's internal daily polling.

[MT Treasurer]

Surprisingly bad poll for Ryan — he’ll need to outperform the GCB by a lot more than that to have a shot. FTR, Republicans won the House popular vote in 2020 by 14 points, and that was with no uncontested races. Vance +2 with a R+6 GCB is problematic for Ryan, to say the least.

I’d also caution people against reading too much into Vance underperforming DeWine's numbers by this much. DeWine is precisely the type of candidate who’d poll well with high-propensity, high-engagement voters who are easier to reach, whereas the underperformance would presumably be a lot less pronounced among lower-propensity voters who actually have some affinity for Trump but who are harder to reach. This is also not the first poll showing 'more Trumpy' candidates undeperforming generic Republicans by an unusual amount.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Surprisingly bad poll for Ryan — he’ll need to outperform the GCB by a lot more than that to have a shot. FTR, Republicans won the House popular vote in 2020 by 14 points, and that was with no uncontested races. Vance +2 with a R+6 GCB is problematic for Ryan, to say the least.

I’d also caution people against reading too much into Vance underperforming DeWine's numbers by this much. DeWine is precisely the type of candidate who’d poll well with high-propensity, high-engagement voters who are easier to reach, whereas the underperformance would presumably be a lot less pronounced among lower-propensity voters who actually have some affinity for Trump but who are harder to reach. This is also not the first poll showing 'more Trumpy' candidates undeperforming generic Republicans by an unusual amount.

It’s a Vance internal

[Comrade Funk]

Vance should be ashamed its even this close!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Surprisingly bad poll for Ryan — he’ll need to outperform the GCB by a lot more than that to have a shot. FTR, Republicans won the House popular vote in 2020 by 14 points, and that was with no uncontested races. Vance +2 with a R+6 GCB is problematic for Ryan, to say the least.

I’d also caution people against reading too much into Vance underperforming DeWine's numbers by this much. DeWine is precisely the type of candidate who’d poll well with high-propensity, high-engagement voters who are easier to reach, whereas the underperformance would presumably be a lot less pronounced among lower-propensity voters who actually have some affinity for Trump but who are harder to reach. This is also not the first poll showing 'more Trumpy' candidates undeperforming generic Republicans by an unusual amount.

It’s a Vance internal

It's a Republican pollster, but I don't know whether it's actually an internal.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Surprisingly bad poll for Ryan — he’ll need to outperform the GCB by a lot more than that to have a shot. FTR, Republicans won the House popular vote in 2020 by 14 points, and that was with no uncontested races. Vance +2 with a R+6 GCB is problematic for Ryan, to say the least.

I’d also caution people against reading too much into Vance underperforming DeWine's numbers by this much. DeWine is precisely the type of candidate who’d poll well with high-propensity, high-engagement voters who are easier to reach, whereas the underperformance would presumably be a lot less pronounced among lower-propensity voters who actually have some affinity for Trump but who are harder to reach. This is also not the first poll showing 'more Trumpy' candidates undeperforming generic Republicans by an unusual amount.

It’s a Vance internal

It's a Republican pollster, but I don't know whether it's actually an internal.

Either way, the point stands

[Orwell]

Vance should just stream Hillbilly Elegy on TV

[Progressive Pessimist]

Vance should just stream Hillbilly Elegy on TV

Don't you mean that Ryan should? That would help Vance lose support.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Surprisingly bad poll for Ryan — he’ll need to outperform the GCB by a lot more than that to have a shot. FTR, Republicans won the House popular vote in 2020 by 14 points, and that was with no uncontested races. Vance +2 with a R+6 GCB is problematic for Ryan, to say the least.

I’d also caution people against reading too much into Vance underperforming DeWine's numbers by this much. DeWine is precisely the type of candidate who’d poll well with high-propensity, high-engagement voters who are easier to reach, whereas the underperformance would presumably be a lot less pronounced among lower-propensity voters who actually have some affinity for Trump but who are harder to reach. This is also not the first poll showing 'more Trumpy' candidates undeperforming generic Republicans by an unusual amount.

1) Thank you for the point about DeWine. This should be obvious but instead is apparently evidence that the poll is too right leaning according to atlas lol

2) Is there any evidence for Cygnal specifically overestimating republicans? Their North Carolina polling this cycle has been in the mainstream the entire cycle, and I’m pretty sure 2020 way overestimated D’s.

3) The point about the GCB is pretty strong evidence that there will be a meltdown of some sort. It might be about the house, it might be about a specific senate seat, it might be about the entire senate, or it could be about a republican governor surviving a blue wave. But there will most likely be somewhere where reality doesn’t conform to expectations.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Surprisingly bad poll for Ryan — he’ll need to outperform the GCB by a lot more than that to have a shot. FTR, Republicans won the House popular vote in 2020 by 14 points, and that was with no uncontested races. Vance +2 with a R+6 GCB is problematic for Ryan, to say the least.

I’d also caution people against reading too much into Vance underperforming DeWine's numbers by this much. DeWine is precisely the type of candidate who’d poll well with high-propensity, high-engagement voters who are easier to reach, whereas the underperformance would presumably be a lot less pronounced among lower-propensity voters who actually have some affinity for Trump but who are harder to reach. This is also not the first poll showing 'more Trumpy' candidates undeperforming generic Republicans by an unusual amount.

1) Thank you for the point about DeWine. This should be obvious but instead is apparently evidence that the poll is too right leaning according to atlas lol

2) Is there any evidence for Cygnal specifically overestimating republicans? Their North Carolina polling this cycle has been in the mainstream the entire cycle, and I’m pretty sure 2020 way overestimated D’s.

3) The point about the GCB is pretty strong evidence that there will be a meltdown of some sort. It might be about the house, it might be about a specific senate seat, it might be about the entire senate, or it could be about a republican governor surviving a blue wave. But there will most likely be somewhere where reality doesn’t conform to expectations.

This happens in pretty much every election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

2) Is there any evidence for Cygnal specifically overestimating republicans? Their North Carolina polling this cycle has been in the mainstream the entire cycle, and I’m pretty sure 2020 way overestimated D’s.

This is the list of Cygnal polls since July 1 at 538, in order of survey end date:

7/7 GA-GOV: Kemp (R)+5 (Kemp internal)
7/14 IA-SEN: Grassley (R)+9
7/14 IA-GOV: Reynolds (R)+15
7/19 MN-GOV: Walz (D)+4 (Jensen internal)
7/20 GCB: Tied
7/28 OR-06: Erickson (R)+7 (Erickson internal)
8/15 NC-SEN: Tied
8/18 WI-03: Van Orden (R)+12
8/21 GCB: Tied
9/8 PA-08: Tied (Bognet (R) internal)
9/16 GCB: Tied
9/26 MN-GOV: Walz (D)+4 (Jensen internal)
9/26 NC-SEN: Tied
9/29 NM-GOV: Lujan Grisham (D)+2 (Ronchetti internal?)
9/30 MI-08: Junge (R)+1 (Junge internal)
9/30 OR-06: Erickson (R)+5 (Erickson internal)
10/4 IA-GOV: Reynolds (R)+21
10/4 IA-SEN: Grassley (R)+14
10/8 OH-GOV: DeWine (R)+22
10/8 OH-SEN: Vance (R)+2

Some of those look reasonable while others seem quite R-favorable.  I don't see any that look particularly D-favorable.  For a neutral pollster, I'd expect a distribution with some that were more favorable to both parties.

[Orwell]

Vance should just stream Hillbilly Elegy on TV

Don't you mean that Ryan should? That would help Vance lose support.

Why? You have to admit a lot of Vance's biography mostly the stuff covered in the movie is pretty inspiring. Didn't know his dad, his mom was a drug addict and he grew up surrounded by abuse and addiction. Grew up poor in Ohio, worked his ass off and joined the Marines and served in Iraq, graduated with high honors from Ohio State, went to Law school, and worked multiple jobs to put himself through school.

   The book would make Vance look much worse, but the movie makes him pretty sympathetic.