Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[Joseph Cao]

The Palace extends the 2pm deadline for PM candidates to collect and demonstrate their support by 24 hours.

Also whispers out on the street that BN, who is absolutely much more spooked about PN's incursion in Pahang, reaching out to PH there for support in cobbling a majority in the state assembly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PH and UMNO are talking, would be a pretty strange alliance but UMNO and PN would probably see UMNO struggling to differenate itself from it's partner.

PN+BN feels like the old UMNO party united again. PH+BN is much more unprecedented...best analogy I can think of at the moment is the Socialist-LDP coalition in 1994 Japan, but that's still far from perfect.

https://twitter.com/fmtoday/status/1594535766549372930
Well it's happening on a state-level at least. Malasiya realy does have something for weird political alliances that bring old enemies together.

Guess at this point the DAP is just happy to be in government again?

If by "again" you mean "preserve the existing arrangement" then yes.

Ah. My brain was conflating Perak and the nation more generally. I was not aware of the situation re: Perak and UMNO bailing out PH...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fair to say that at this point BN is probably trying to extract the highest price for its support?

[Logical]

Fair to say that at this point BN is probably trying to extract the highest price for its support?

They probably want immunity from certain investigations, continued access to pork, and DAP having a minimal influence in government. Anwar is desperate to become PM and will likely accept. DAP is spooked enough by PAS that they'll choose take the bitter pill over another PN-BN government. In the end, everyone will either be mad or forced to lick their own spit which is a perfect encapsulation of Malaysia.

[Novelty]

They probably want immunity from certain investigations

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2022/11/21/no-conditions-in-pakatan-bn-discussions-including-zahids-court-cases-says-anwar/41051

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/645151

Well, it seems existing court cases are off the table?

[jaichind]

PN claims to have sent list of 112 MPs to the monarch. Since PH+BN = 112 then this list must include some BN MPs.   Note now the anti defection law is in effect. 

Also I would not rule out a split in GPS where the Christian tribal parties like PDP and PRS might bolt at the prospect of backing a PN government with heavy PAS influence without BN being in it to counterbalance PAS.   

[jaichind]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-ge15-pakatan-harapan-barisan-nasional-talks-king-deadline-government-3089101

"‘Very pleased’ with PH-BN talks, corruption cases not part of negotiation, says Anwar"

Main problem here is the Johor BN which views PH as the bigger threat than PN might rebel against this. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nicknames I've found for Malay politicians online:
Rina Mohd Harun > Rina Doraemon (Her ministry released some posters that got social media criticism)
Najib Rajak > Bijan
Anwar Ibrahim > Numbers man (claims on his part he's got the numbers to form government)
Mahathir Muhammad > Tun M (Tun being a traditional Malay term of respect)
Muhyiddin Yassin > MooMoo (least sure about this one)

[jaichind]

For the first time ever Anwar's claims of "having the numbers" might actually be true. 

[jaichind]

https://www.malaysianow.com/news/2022/11/21/pahang-ph-agrees-to-form-state-govt-with-bn

"Pahang PH agrees to form state govt with BN"

[jaichind]

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/11/21/sng-explains-presence-at-bn-ph-meeting/

"Sng explains presence at BN-PH meeting"

PBM MP was elected with de facto PH support.   That is why I counted him as part of Sawawak PH

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PN claims to have sent list of 112 MPs to the monarch. Since PH+BN = 112 then this list must include some BN MPs.   Note now the anti defection law is in effect. 

Also I would not rule out a split in GPS where the Christian tribal parties like PDP and PRS might bolt at the prospect of backing a PN government with heavy PAS influence without BN being in it to counterbalance PAS.   

It feels like things are narrowing down to either BN+PH(+Sarawak?) or BN+PN+Sarawak, with Zahid's sense of self-preservation making the former likelier.

[jaichind]

I wonder where the KDM bloc stands (1 KDM and 2 pro-KDM PPMB rebels).  The anti-defection law forbids neither pro-KDM PPBM rebel from joining another party without losing their seats.  I have to assume this bloc will just wait and see and then join up with the winning side.  That is slightly good news for a PH-BN government since PH-BN is slightly larger than PN-GPS.  I would surmise the KDM bloc position would be similar to the Sarawak Christian parties (PDP PRS) where they have no problem backing a PN government as long as BN is in there to counterbalance the influence of PAS which I am sure the KDM bloc would view negatively.

[jaichind]

https://www.malaysianow.com/news/2022/11/21/it-wont-be-a-ph-govt-if-we-join-forces-with-bn-anwar-admits

"It won't be a 'PH govt' if we join forces with BN, Anwar admits"

Anwar is already thinking of how to help UMNO Prez Zahid calm anti-PH rebels within BN by positioning a possible PH-BN government as "not PH" and more importantly "no DAP" government.  It seems Ahmad Zahid Hamidi's reformist enemies within the UMNO area are also against as PH-BN deal primarily due to their fears that this is some scheme by Zahid to stay in power within UMNO.

[jaichind]

PH and UMNO are talking, would be a pretty strange alliance but UMNO and PN would probably see UMNO struggling to differenate itself from it's partner.

PN+BN feels like the old UMNO party united again. PH+BN is much more unprecedented...best analogy I can think of at the moment is the Socialist-LDP coalition in 1994 Japan, but that's still far from perfect.

So now  Zahid turns from 2017 Theresa May into 2010 Nick Clegg. 
This is more like the PRI-PAN alliance after the 2018 MORENA landslide in Mexico with the difference being PRI-PAN did not join forces to form a government but merely to try to stop more MORENA landslides to come.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/644735

"In Muar, Muhyiddin warns 'Jewish and Christian' agenda"

Muhyiddin says that the 'Jewish and Christian' agendas are behind PH.

The Jewish part is not a big deal since being against global Jewish power is a consensus across the Malaysian political spectrum.  Anwar also railed against Jewish power in the past and claimed in the past that Jewish power was behind BN going after him.  It is the Christian part that is causing a firestorm.  This could cost BN-PN votes in Sabah Christian tribal areas.  I guess Muhyiddin is doing this very late in the campaign to do a last-minute consolidation of conservative Malays in Peninsular Malaysia and hope that the news cycle moves slower in Sabah.

On the global level given the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is clear that PRC-Russia prefers BN-PN while the collective West prefers PH which would be the same for the 2018 elections.  Muhyiddin campaigning against the collective West is too abstract so he is dumbing it down by saying that 'Jewish and Christian' agendas are behind PH.  

Could this end up helping cost Muhyiddin the top job? He needs Sarawak MPs if he wants government...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Found this on reddit, had to share. LOL.

(r/Rasora on Reddit)

[jaichind]

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/644735

"In Muar, Muhyiddin warns 'Jewish and Christian' agenda"

Muhyiddin says that the 'Jewish and Christian' agendas are behind PH.

The Jewish part is not a big deal since being against global Jewish power is a consensus across the Malaysian political spectrum.  Anwar also railed against Jewish power in the past and claimed in the past that Jewish power was behind BN going after him.  It is the Christian part that is causing a firestorm.  This could cost BN-PN votes in Sabah Christian tribal areas.  I guess Muhyiddin is doing this very late in the campaign to do a last-minute consolidation of conservative Malays in Peninsular Malaysia and hope that the news cycle moves slower in Sabah.

On the global level given the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is clear that PRC-Russia prefers BN-PN while the collective West prefers PH which would be the same for the 2018 elections.  Muhyiddin campaigning against the collective West is too abstract so he is dumbing it down by saying that 'Jewish and Christian' agendas are behind PH.  

Could this end up helping cost Muhyiddin the top job? He needs Sarawak MPs if he wants government...

Perhaps.  Only if there is a sense that PAS will have a lot of power within a PN government and then eat up the UMNO and PPBM base.  In that situation, I can see some of the Sabah and Sarawak Christian parties bolting a PN government if one is setup with Sabah and Sarawak parties support.

[jaichind]

Another problem for a possible PH-BN alliance in addition to objections for Johor BN MPs would be Sabah BN MPs.  There are 7 BN MPs in Sabah and in Sabah, there is a PN-BN government.  If a PH-BN federal government is formed that puts a lot of pressure on the 7 Sabah BN MPs.  Since the anti-defection law does not apply to Sabah MLAs perhaps after a PH-BN government is formed it acts to get PN defections to BN in Sabah in preparation for a mid-term election or just a BN-PH government.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looking at the breakdown of BN MPs per state and territory:

Johor 9
Sabah 7
Negeri Sembilan 5
Pahang 5
Perak 3
Kuala Lampur 1
Labuan 1

What is the least inconvenient/troublesome coalition option for a majority of BN MPs?

[jaichind]

Gaming and acohol stocks fall over 10% on PAS becoming the largest party in monday trading

[Novelty]

https://aliran.com/thinking-allowed-online/nurul-izzahs-permatang-pauh-defeat-shocking-but-understandable

Nurul Izzah’s Permatang Pauh defeat – shocking but understandable

There you go Jaichind.

[jaichind]

https://aliran.com/thinking-allowed-online/nurul-izzahs-permatang-pauh-defeat-shocking-but-understandable

Nurul Izzah’s Permatang Pauh defeat – shocking but understandable

There you go Jaichind.

Thanks a bunch for this very useful info

[jaichind]

Looking at the breakdown of BN MPs per state and territory:

Johor 9
Sabah 7
Negeri Sembilan 5
Pahang 5
Perak 3
Kuala Lampur 1
Labuan 1

What is the least inconvenient/troublesome coalition option for a majority of BN MPs?

For the Peninsular Malaysia seats, I think they are split 50/50 in terms of which of PH or PN is the main enemy.  For Sabah clearly, BN MPs will lean toward PN since they own their seats to PN backing.  So from a re-elect game theory point of view if there was no anti-defection law PN would have won by now by getting 10-15 BN MPs to jump ship and that would be the end of it.  With the anti-defection law power now flows to UMNO Prez   Zahid although.  He now has to get a good enough deal from PH to sell to BN and UMNO leaders to back him in this move.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looking at the breakdown of BN MPs per state and territory:

Johor 9
Sabah 7
Negeri Sembilan 5
Pahang 5
Perak 3
Kuala Lampur 1
Labuan 1

What is the least inconvenient/troublesome coalition option for a majority of BN MPs?

For the Peninsular Malaysia seats, I think they are split 50/50 in terms of which of PH or PN is the main enemy.  For Sabah clearly, BN MPs will lean toward PN since they own their seats to PN backing.  So from a re-elect game theory point of view if there was no anti-defection law PN would have won by now by getting 10-15 BN MPs to jump ship and that would be the end of it.  With the anti-defection law power now flows to UMNO Prez   Zahid although.  He now has to get a good enough deal from PH to sell to BN and UMNO leaders to back him in this move.

This kind of balance would help explain all the indecision from BN and the mixed signals we are seeing from the BN camp, taken together.