WI-SEN (CBS/YouGov): Johnson +1

[wbrocks67]

Johnson (R) 50%
Barnes (D) 49%

Would their policies…?
Barnes: 45% help middle class, 42% hurt middle class
Johnson: 46% hurt middle class, 40% help middle class

Do you like how they handle themselves?
Barnes: 49% yes, 51% no
Johnson: 43% yes, 57% no

Johnson job approval: 45/55 (-10)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wisconsin-senate-ron-johnson-mandela-barnes-opinion-poll-2022-10-09/

[wbrocks67]

Barnes consistently wins Indies, here he's winning 53-46. If he can keep that up, he definitely still has a chance.

A good poll for him, especially on the back of a good debate night last Friday. If he can put that $20M to good use, he has a good chance.

Despite the negative onslaught, his favorables are still better than Johnsons and he's still winning Indies.

[Gass3268]

This is Barnes best poll in over a month.

[Pollster]

For what it's worth, I've yet to talk to a single Democratic strategist who thinks this race is lost.

[wbrocks67]

For what it's worth, I've yet to talk to a single Democratic strategist who thinks this race is lost.

If Barnes can come out of the last month with the race still nearly tied, I think that's an objectively good place to be for him now that he has the cash to properly fight back. We'll see if his team executes it though.

They also have this is a bit more R-leaning than 2020, at R+8 in party ID. 2020 was R+5.

[Devils30]

News at 11…close race is a close race!

[MT Treasurer]

For what it's worth, I've yet to talk to a single Democratic strategist who thinks this race is lost.

What kind of overall result/House PV are those strategists expecting? I’m assuming a fairly D-leaning one, no?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Ryan and Beasley are outperforming CCM and Barnes just a note and Ryan is up 49/38 and Beasley is down 43/42 in all 4 states the minority vote is gonna look large Ds will win 4 states IA is 3 percent black and IAN hit FL so the other 4 states Ds are favorites

We still have SD, IN and UT as well as FL, FL is not gonna be called when the polls close

[MillennialModerate]

Not a chance.

Johnson wins by AT WORST 2 points. More likely between 4-8

[wbrocks67]

Not a chance.

Johnson wins by AT WORST 2 points. More likely between 4-8

weren't you supposed to leave the forum after the runoffs or something

[MillennialModerate]

Not a chance.

Johnson wins by AT WORST 2 points. More likely between 4-8

weren't you supposed to leave the forum after the runoffs or something

I think you’re thinking of Woodbury lol

I was vocal in my skepticism of Dem chances in Georgia and was very wrong. But most of the time I’m right on my predictions (in fact other than NV-SEN ‘18 and GA-POTUS & GA-SEN) I’ve been right on every single race

[Pollster]

For what it's worth, I've yet to talk to a single Democratic strategist who thinks this race is lost.

What kind of overall result/House PV are those strategists expecting? I’m assuming a fairly D-leaning one, no?

I don't know anybody expecting a D-leaning year, most of the Dem strategists I talk to are more pessimistic about Democrats' chances than the Republican ones.

[Gass3268]

Not a chance.

Johnson wins by AT WORST 2 points. More likely between 4-8

Lol

[OneJ]

Idk, in a state Biden won by less than a percentage point this was always going to be competitive barring some sort of major scandal. Tossup remains a tossup.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

How are Democrats going to overperform the polls in Wisconsin of all states? Lean R>Likely R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How are Democrats going to overperform the polls in Wisconsin of all states? Lean R>Likely R

Lol it's called Early Voting VBM just like we won AK and NY 19 it's not Lean R

These are pre Election polls not exit polls I keep telling users this

[soundchaser]

How are Democrats going to overperform the polls in Wisconsin of all states? Lean R>Likely R

All it takes is for YouGov’s LV screen to be slightly off. Not hard to see how it could happen. This is consistent with the race being a tossup.

[MasterJedi]

Sad to say but the west would be more competitive if it wasn’t Barnes at the top. Someone white would play a lot better in the burbs and rural. It’s bad out there for anyone with a darker complexion.

[SnowLabrador]

Sad to say but the west would be more competitive if it wasn’t Barnes at the top. Someone white would play a lot better in the burbs and rural. It’s bad out there for anyone with a darker complexion.

I'm not 100% convinced that's true. The only presidential candidate to win Wisconsin in a general election by more than 1% this century was a black man. Obviously coalitions have changed since then. Barnes isn't losing because he's black, he's losing because he's a Democrat in a red-leaning state in a red-leaning year.

[Brittain33]

Lean R race is Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R race is Lean R.

Lol do you remember in AK and NY 19 VBM Early vote over performed the polls, have faith we Ds are all voting now, have faith in the 303 blue wall

If Ryan, DEMINGS whom are overperforning polls Ryan 49/38 and Beasley has been tied then we are in good shape to win WI and PA were not gonna to win WI by 6 pts like PA and MI

[President Johnson]

Tilt/Lean Republican.

It's still kind of surprising Johnson leads in this poll given the crosstabs (favorabilities and issues).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt/Lean Republican.

It's still kind of surprising Johnson leads in this poll given the crosstabs (favorabilities and issues).

He's not going win, Johnson is the incumbent and we still have 8 percent inflation the Rs we're supposed to have 245 RH and 54 S when they were plus 7 in Fox polls in May, they're the ones underperforming

Also, Hunter Biden is about to get indicted for tax fraud

[wbrocks67]

Tilt/Lean Republican.

It's still kind of surprising Johnson leads in this poll given the crosstabs (favorabilities and issues).

Barnes leads by 7 among Independents and Johnson is still winning. It's an R+8 sample

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It amazes me how users forgot about AK and NY 19 and go back to the same Approval ratings we are just gonna have to prove them wrong again, but how many times are we gonna have to say we are Early voting, the blue wall favors Ds