Voting trends if the GOP went libertarian?

[MyLifeIsYours]

If the Republican Party started to get more libertarian in their platform, how would this alter their voting base? Does it worth the risk for the backlash among traditional Republican voters? What about the MEGA crowd? Do they stick with the party or will they form a separate third party that is mire explicitly tied to Trump policies?

[TML]

How would you define “libertarian”? Would that include supporting abortion rights and/or LGBTQ rights?

[GregTheGreat657]

The Sun Belt would trend right, with the Rust Belt trending left, however, the demographic changes in the Sun Belt, as well as doing worse with Rust Belt voters would make this an overall negative as far as official party policy goes.

[MyLifeIsYours]

How would you define “libertarian”? Would that include supporting abortion rights and/or LGBTQ rights?

More socially liberal but less lenient on pushing an agenda. Can go either way for abortion, with a stance that the states should decide and not the Supreme Court.

The economic policies would be further to the right, embracing larger spending cuts to balance the budget, including the military.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Depends on how you define "libertarian", but it's honestly really hard to see that happening - and even if it does, the general trend would be an overall decline in Republican support. Libertarians are loud online, but do not reflect the opinion of most Americans. The GOP has been a party dominated by the religious right for decades now - many (myself included) thought that Trump's election was a sign of this influence decreasing, but to the contrary, the religious right seems to have grown in influence. While there is certainly common ground between evangelicals and libertarians in some areas (see: Reagan's three-legged stool), they ultimately have vastly different worldviews. A Republican Party that embraces libertarianism beyond fairly empty platitudes about "freedom" will alienate the largest part of its base.

And beyond the religious right, it's not at all clear to me that libertarianism has an increasing presence in the GOP. Take the issue of police, for example, where most Republicans take a very pro-police stance, while civic libertarians have every reason to oppose that. As drug decriminalization, the legalization of sex work, etc become a more prominent battleground, it's hard to see how the GOP can reconcile with libertarians without angering most Republican voters.

Anyway, sorry for going off-topic a bit. A libertarian GOP would likely increase its support among more "techy" young people (YangGang types, for example), which mostly helps them in states like California which are already so blue that it's hard to see flipping under any circumstances for decades. It would probably also help them more generally with college-educated voters which could help in the suburbs (although suburbanites don't tend to be particularly libertarian, so the gains will be marginal). So in some sense, a more libertarian GOP would make inroads in places where they haven't been doing very well, but at the expense of alienating the vast, vast majority of conservatives.

[Skill and Chance]

Depends on how you define "libertarian", but it's honestly really hard to see that happening - and even if it does, the general trend would be an overall decline in Republican support. Libertarians are loud online, but do not reflect the opinion of most Americans. The GOP has been a party dominated by the religious right for decades now - many (myself included) thought that Trump's election was a sign of this influence decreasing, but to the contrary, the religious right seems to have grown in influence. While there is certainly common ground between evangelicals and libertarians in some areas (see: Reagan's three-legged stool), they ultimately have vastly different worldviews. A Republican Party that embraces libertarianism beyond fairly empty platitudes about "freedom" will alienate the largest part of its base.

And beyond the religious right, it's not at all clear to me that libertarianism has an increasing presence in the GOP. Take the issue of police, for example, where most Republicans take a very pro-police stance, while civic libertarians have every reason to oppose that. As drug decriminalization, the legalization of sex work, etc become a more prominent battleground, it's hard to see how the GOP can reconcile with libertarians without angering most Republican voters.

Anyway, sorry for going off-topic a bit. A libertarian GOP would likely increase its support among more "techy" young people (YangGang types, for example), which mostly helps them in states like California which are already so blue that it's hard to see flipping under any circumstances for decades. It would probably also help them more generally with college-educated voters which could help in the suburbs (although suburbanites don't tend to be particularly libertarian, so the gains will be marginal). So in some sense, a more libertarian GOP would make inroads in places where they haven't been doing very well, but at the expense of alienating the vast, vast majority of conservatives.

If anything, it's more likely the Dems go libertarian assuming SCOTUS continues down the road of crippling the federal administrative state while also letting state governments generally do whatever they want.

[Agonized-Statism]

As in Paulbot libertarianism? Free trade and eliminating the welfare state aren't winning positions right now, and all that libertarian enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies and Web 3.0 echoes "just learn to code" to their new and vitally important Rust Belt constituents. As others have said, Republicans would improve in the Sun Belt but struggle as much as ever with POC there, and Democrats might jump on the opportunity to retake some white working class voters.

A decade on from the Great Recession, it's clear that libertarianism lost out on the fight for the post-neoliberal soul of America. Most of us no longer believe that pushing the envelope of new digital technologies far enough will fix everything (compare what people were saying about Musk and Zuckerberg and social media as a force for democratization in the Arab Spring with what they're saying now), and with geopolitics going the way they are, there's more want for a stronger state than ever before IMO.

[If my soul was made of stone]

As in Paulbot libertarianism? Free trade and eliminating the welfare state aren't winning positions right now, and all that libertarian enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies and Web 3.0 echoes "just learn to code" to their new and vitally important Rust Belt constituents. As others have said, Republicans would improve in the Sun Belt but struggle as much as ever with POC there, and Democrats might jump on the opportunity to retake some white working class voters.

A decade on from the Great Recession, it's clear that libertarianism lost out on the fight for the post-neoliberal soul of America. Most of us no longer believe that pushing the envelope of new digital technologies far enough will fix everything (compare what people were saying about Musk and Zuckerberg and social media as a force for democratization in the Arab Spring with what they're saying now), and with geopolitics going the way they are, there's more want for a stronger state than ever before IMO.

silly goose, andrew yang and tulsi gabbard will overthrow (((the establishment))) and establish fully automated tiktok blockchain privately funded austerity autarky lindberghianism america first any minute now, with Anime

[Reactionary Libertarian]

GOP has gotten more libertarian since the Tea Party. More isolationist (especially Ukraine), anti lockdown/vax mandate, anti green initiatives like banning gas, massive deregulation under Trump, very pro-gun rights, skepticism of "experts" and administrative state (Schedule F, West Virginia vs EPA and SCOTUS more generally, anti FBI sentiment), parental rights/school choice, anti-college requirements (especially for teachers and civil servants), VERY pro-religious liberty, ambivalent on gay marriage and marijuana, probably going to start moving to the center on abortion over the next decade, more skeptical of environmental and Civil Rights legislation than ever, and of course still generally anti welfare spending, unions, taxes, and regulation- the GOP seems quite libertarian to me, especially compared to just about any other Western political party. Trump was our most libertarian president in years.

Of course if you define "libertarianism" as appealing to the Cato/Reason crowd by basically doing nothing other than tax cuts while the progressive administrative state and its subsidiaries get to run the country and push things ever leftward, in the name of "principles" and "small government" then you probably think the GOP has gotten more authoritarian relative to the Bush years (a preposterous suggestion). But there is no constituency for that kind of libertarianism other than pundits and corporate lobbyists.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

They would collapse among working class voters, maybe do a bit better in wealthy suburbs? Though there's probably a hard limit with that group because suburbanites have very neocon tendencies and the urban vote would remain just as D as it is now. Every presidential election would be lost by McCain/Obama 2008 margins or slightly worse. Libertarianism in the strict traditional sense pretty much has no core constituency. I happen to take their view against fiat currency and anti-interventionism but I find the concept of being a slave to corporations just as disgusting as being a slave to government. For example, can you really have free speech when corporations have nearly unregulated control over the modern day public square? (social media)... Is capitalist competition really effective if corporations are allowed to become monopolies or engage in price fixing? Libertarian border policy and policing policies are more lax than the most progressive of Democrats. The crime wave would be insane and of course, every citizen would be charged with taking these matters into their own hands to a much greater extent than they do now. Nobody wants that.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

As in Paulbot libertarianism? Free trade and eliminating the welfare state aren't winning positions right now, and all that libertarian enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies and Web 3.0 echoes "just learn to code" to their new and vitally important Rust Belt constituents. As others have said, Republicans would improve in the Sun Belt but struggle as much as ever with POC there, and Democrats might jump on the opportunity to retake some white working class voters.

A decade on from the Great Recession, it's clear that libertarianism lost out on the fight for the post-neoliberal soul of America. Most of us no longer believe that pushing the envelope of new digital technologies far enough will fix everything (compare what people were saying about Musk and Zuckerberg and social media as a force for democratization in the Arab Spring with what they're saying now), and with geopolitics going the way they are, there's more want for a stronger state than ever before IMO.

This, honestly Libertarianism was (aside from a small core of true believers) a waystation for a lot of people who supported Ron Paul for different reasons and then later drifted to the left and became Bernie supporters or to the far-right and became Trumpites or worse.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

How libertariqn are we talking? It doesn't have to be pure libertarian, which I agree would be toxic

[Person Man]

As in Paulbot libertarianism? Free trade and eliminating the welfare state aren't winning positions right now, and all that libertarian enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies and Web 3.0 echoes "just learn to code" to their new and vitally important Rust Belt constituents. As others have said, Republicans would improve in the Sun Belt but struggle as much as ever with POC there, and Democrats might jump on the opportunity to retake some white working class voters.

A decade on from the Great Recession, it's clear that libertarianism lost out on the fight for the post-neoliberal soul of America. Most of us no longer believe that pushing the envelope of new digital technologies far enough will fix everything (compare what people were saying about Musk and Zuckerberg and social media as a force for democratization in the Arab Spring with what they're saying now), and with geopolitics going the way they are, there's more want for a stronger state than ever before IMO.

silly goose, andrew yang and tulsi gabbard will overthrow (((the establishment))) and establish fully automated tiktok blockchain privately funded austerity autarky lindberghianism america first any minute now, with Anime

I prefer those who follow the "T", as in the Model-T. Fordism.

[Vosem]

I think the answer is "the ones you're seeing". Compared to 20 years ago, the GOP is much more inflexibly against financial regulation (and under Trump indeed the raw number of federal regulations was actually just barely cut), while things like interventionism, opposition to gay marriage, and the Drug War have largely fallen by the wayside.

A decade on from the Great Recession, it's clear that libertarianism lost out on the fight for the post-neoliberal soul of America. Most of us no longer believe that pushing the envelope of new digital technologies far enough will fix everything (compare what people were saying about Musk and Zuckerberg and social media as a force for democratization in the Arab Spring with what they're saying now), and with geopolitics going the way they are, there's more want for a stronger state than ever before IMO.

The largest non-woke political movement among the youth is cryptocurrency adoption, which is one that has very little resistance in the GOP and is quite active in the right-wing of the Democratic Party, and which suggests that our problems can be solved by more accurately measuring the correct monetary value of things and weakening central banks! This seems totally divorced from what's going on.

Anyway, the answer here is that popular libertarianism is usually provoked by having low trust in institutions, which is more common the more lower-class an American is. As the GOP has abandoned social conservatism and embraced more hostility to federal programs, it's support has grown among poorer and working-class voters, which is exactly what you would naively expect.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Anyway, the answer here is that popular libertarianism is usually provoked by having low trust in institutions, which is more common the more lower-class an American is. As the GOP has abandoned social conservatism and embraced more hostility to federal programs, it's support has grown among poorer and working-class voters, which is exactly what you would naively expect.

This reminds me of RI’s 2019 thread on mapping the political compass onto precinct-level data. It showed that, at least on the West Coast, left-liberalism is more disproportionately prevalent among affluent areas than in non-affluent downscale urbanized areas where libertarianism was most disproportionately common.

The following map shows which of the four quadrants has the highest z-score in each PUMA, that is, which quadrant is most prevalent relative to their overall average and standard deviation. The scale is no longer in percent of the population, but a relative scale:

Image Link

The methodology doesn't work perfectly everywhere, but we do see some interesting patterns: the large divide among rural areas between the conservative west and communitarian east, the eastern conservative suburbs and exurbs, and, of course, liberal cities and college towns.

Here, libertarianism shows up, predominately in suburbs (especially DC, Chicago, the PNW) and in urban cores across the Sunbelt and West. Liberalism is far more constrained to the Acela Corridor, majority black urban PUMAs, and wealthy parts of the West. Communitarianism dominates in the Rust Belt, rural Northeast, and across the lowland rural South (both black and white areas), but conservativism reigns in ancestrally Republican parts of upland Appalachia, southern suburbs, retirement locales in Florida, and beyond the 100th Meridian.

The contrast between Left-Liberal and Libertarian strongholds in the Western US is pretty striking. You'd think areas with higher concentrations of wealthier, highly educated whites would be more receptive to Libertarianism than less well off, less educated, and/or less white urban areas.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I think the answer is "the ones you're seeing". Compared to 20 years ago, the GOP is much more inflexibly against financial regulation (and under Trump indeed the raw number of federal regulations was actually just barely cut), while things like interventionism, opposition to gay marriage, and the Drug War have largely fallen by the wayside.

did you just not hear anything about all the wishcasting footnotes in the dobbs opinion or what