Who wins the war? October edition

[SnowLabrador]

I still think Russia.

[HillGoose]

Ukraine, they will push the armies of Vlad the Demon from all of their territory

Unless the Russkies use a WMD, then the combined forces of NATO and Ukraine will see that Putin meets the same end as Saddam did and the Coalition of the Willing will reach and liberate Moscow within days, if not hours

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

At this point, it's Ukraine or nobody. Russia doesn't have the army or the weapons to win the war in a way that allows Ukraine to continue existing as a region, and that would mean World War III if they go for that.

[Aurelius]

Ukraine. The only question is whether Belgorod Oblast will be Belhorod Oblast a year from now.

[MATTROSE94]

I still think Russia.

I agree. I think Russia will launch a decapitation nuclear strike against Ukraine in a few weeks.

[HillGoose]

I still think Russia.

I agree. I think Russia will launch a decapitation nuclear strike against Ukraine in a few weeks.

Russia still won't win tho even then, if they do that surely a Coalition of the Willing will form including NATO and the remnants of the Ukrainian Army to disarm Russia and free its people.

[dead0man]

I still think Russia.

I agree. I think Russia will launch a decapitation nuclear strike against Ukraine in a few weeks.

like with a tactical nuke aimed at wherever they think Zelenski is at that moment?  And then what?  How would that change the battlefield?  It would certainly increase the Ukrainian Army's resolve.  Maybe if they had done this in the first couple of days it might have done something, it's too late for that kind of things at this point.  The Ukrainians are all in now, giving them a perfect martyr won't change that.

and that's ignoring whatever the west would do (well, what the US would do with the UK, Poland and Ukraine, I still doubt the resolve of most of our western Euro allies) to Russia for making such a grave mistake.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

People need to remember the United States probably has the capability to eliminate Putin even in Moscow.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ukraine.

[CumbrianLefty]

I still think Russia.

Of course you do, I would seriously be disappointed in anything else.

[MABA 2020]

Third option should be nobody, this all ends in nuclear armageddon which I think is underrated possibility as Ukraine continues to humiliate Russia and Putin shows no signs of backing down.

[Torie]

I still think Russia.

I agree. I think Russia will launch a decapitation nuclear strike against Ukraine in a few weeks.

like with a tactical nuke aimed at wherever they think Zelenski is at that moment?  And then what?  How would that change the battlefield?  It would certainly increase the Ukrainian Army's resolve.  Maybe if they had done this in the first couple of days it might have done something, it's too late for that kind of things at this point.  The Ukrainians are all in now, giving them a perfect martyr won't change that.

and that's ignoring whatever the west would do (well, what the US would do with the UK, Poland and Ukraine, I still doubt the resolve of most of our western Euro allies) to Russia for making such a grave mistake.

The MATT poster's doomer prediction was the functional equivalent of saying Putin would be dead in a few weeks.

[MATTROSE94]

I still think Russia.

I agree. I think Russia will launch a decapitation nuclear strike against Ukraine in a few weeks.

Russia still won't win tho even then, if they do that surely a Coalition of the Willing will form including NATO and the remnants of the Ukrainian Army to disarm Russia and free its people.

I think NATO will be too cowardly to do anything if Putin launches a nuclear strike against Ukraine due to fears of widespread nuclear armageddon.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I still think Russia.

I agree. I think Russia will launch a decapitation nuclear strike against Ukraine in a few weeks.

Russia still won't win tho even then, if they do that surely a Coalition of the Willing will form including NATO and the remnants of the Ukrainian Army to disarm Russia and free its people.

I think NATO will be too cowardly to do anything if Putin launches a nuclear strike against Ukraine due to fears of widespread nuclear armageddon.

Vladimir Putin doesn't seem to agree with you, otherwise he probably would have used nukes in Ukraine six months ago.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Russia launches a tactical nuclear weapon, NATO would probably not respond exactly in kind (partially because NATO doesn't really have many tactical nukes and it's not part of American military planning), but it would respond through other means: open season on both the Baltic and Black Sea fleets, a no fly zone being imposed over Ukraine and an unprecedented use of cyberattacks would all be on the table. Don't forget that a nuclear weapon would make Russia truly a pariah, with even the fence sitters of the world signalling that they could not work with a state that uses WMDs.

[CumbrianLefty]

Third option should be nobody, this all ends in nuclear armageddon which I think is underrated possibility as Ukraine continues to humiliate Russia and Putin shows no signs of backing down.

The chances of Putin launching "nuclear armageddon" because of his hurt pride is so near to zero as to not be worth worrying about in practical terms. If he tries a "small" or tactical nuke, the West will have killed him within a day or two at most. If he decides he wants to bring the whole world down with him, his own side (most of whom still want to exist) will bump him off in even shorter order.

[SnowLabrador]

Third option should be nobody, this all ends in nuclear armageddon which I think is underrated possibility as Ukraine continues to humiliate Russia and Putin shows no signs of backing down.

The chances of Putin launching "nuclear armageddon" because of his hurt pride is so near to zero as to not be worth worrying about in practical terms. If he tries a "small" or tactical nuke, the West will have killed him within a day or two at most. If he decides he wants to bring the whole world down with him, his own side (most of whom still want to exist) will bump him off in even shorter order.

If Putin were a rational actor, this war would never have happened. He's not above using nukes in Ukraine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Third option should be nobody, this all ends in nuclear armageddon which I think is underrated possibility as Ukraine continues to humiliate Russia and Putin shows no signs of backing down.

The chances of Putin launching "nuclear armageddon" because of his hurt pride is so near to zero as to not be worth worrying about in practical terms. If he tries a "small" or tactical nuke, the West will have killed him within a day or two at most. If he decides he wants to bring the whole world down with him, his own side (most of whom still want to exist) will bump him off in even shorter order.

If Putin were a rational actor, this war would never have happened. He's not above using nukes in Ukraine.

I'm not sure he's above using nuclear weapons in Ukraine either, but the long tables and the incessant masking of everyone near him should be enough to prove that the man still wants to live.

If he starts a chain of events leading to mass nuclear war, I think the most likely cause will not be some kind of nihilistic madness, but mundane stupidity. He has revealed a lot of intellectual blindspots over the last few months.

[Mehmentum]

Either Ukraine wins or everyone loses (nuclear option).  There is no scenario in which Russia wins.