IA SEN Emerson Grassley +11

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2022-republican-candidates-grassley-and-reynolds-hold-double-digit-leads-in-us-senate-and-gubernatorial-elections/

Sen Grassley 49
FRANKEN 38
Someone else 4
Undecided 9

[Person Man]

If Iowa hasn't drifted more Republican in the last two years and the national topline vote is Democratic +1, both giant IFs, this is what you would reasonably expect.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Grassley is going to win, but the margin will be underwhelming.

[Calthrina950]

Grassley is going to win, but the margin will be underwhelming.

Agreed. As I said the other day, the age factor seems to be weighing him down, and the sexual assault allegation against Franken seems to have had little impact. This race is very reminiscent of Strom Thurmond's last reelection in 1996, when he underperformed due to similar concerns over his age.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Interesting, Iowa and Ohio usually have the reputation of “undecided = republican”. This seems to have been the case in Emerson’s Ohio poll but that’s not actually the case here. These undecideds look like genuine swing voters: plurality Biden disapprovers, plurality Grassley disapprovers, plurality undecided in governor but way more likely to back Reynolds at this time, voted comfortably for Biden in 2020, evenly split on 2024 vote/geography/party affiliation, overwhelmingly female. I’ll take this at face value and say Grassley wins by low double digits.

[Sir Mohamed]

Grassley is going to win, but the margin will be underwhelming.

Depends what underwhelming means. He'll do better than Trump 2020, but worse than he did in his 2016 reelection. My expectation is Grassley +15.

[kwabbit]

Grassley is going to win, but the margin will be underwhelming.

Agreed. As I said the other day, the age factor seems to be weighing him down, and the sexual assault allegation against Franken seems to have had little impact. This race is very reminiscent of Strom Thurmond's last reelection in 1996, when he underperformed due to similar concerns over his age.

I think it's less that Grassley is old and more that he chaired the judiciary and was involved in the shepherding of Kavanaugh, ACB, and other controversial judicial nominees. He's always been conservative, but he hadn't been viewed as such a partisan figure before then.

[Calthrina950]

Grassley is going to win, but the margin will be underwhelming.

Agreed. As I said the other day, the age factor seems to be weighing him down, and the sexual assault allegation against Franken seems to have had little impact. This race is very reminiscent of Strom Thurmond's last reelection in 1996, when he underperformed due to similar concerns over his age.

I think it's less that Grassley is old and more that he chaired the judiciary and was involved in the shepherding of Kavanaugh, ACB, and other controversial judicial nominees. He's always been conservative, but he hadn't been viewed as such a partisan figure before then.

This is probably part of it, but I still think the age factor is probably the more significant one.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Reminder that Patty Judge won the precinct containing the Windsor Heights Dairy Queen in 2016. Trends are real

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Grassley will win easily but it wouldn't surprise me if he won by less than he did in the past. Polarization affects every state in the country and it trickles down slowly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA is one of the only swing states aside from OR and WA that isn't Black and Brown that's why Reynolds is easily winning because she takes away the Gender gap, but users think WI, NV, NC, OH and FL are all Lean R and it has significant Blk and Brown, of course OH, PA, WI have Arabs and blks and NC, FL and TX and NV of course have Blks and Latino population


Grassley is a legend in iA that's why he will be one of the only swing state Rs next to Abbott that will win but Beto only lost by 2 we will see in TX

MO is Republicans because all the blks are concentrated in St Louis and moved to neighbors states

[MT Treasurer]

Grassley will win by a lot more than that, obviously. IA polling is among the worst in the country, and that’s saying a lot given the current state of the industry.

I think it's less that Grassley is old and more that he chaired the judiciary and was involved in the shepherding of Kavanaugh, ACB, and other controversial judicial nominees. He's always been conservative, but he hadn't been viewed as such a partisan figure before then.

Except that Democrats already tried this line of attack against him in 2016 after the whole Garland episode — it didn’t work.

[Calthrina950]

Grassley will win by a lot more than that, obviously. IA polling is among the worst in the country, and that’s saying a lot given the current state of the industry.

You think Grassley is going to break 60% again? I wouldn't be surprised if he wins by more than this, but I doubt he does as well as he did in 2016. Franken has generally been polling around 40%.

[MT Treasurer]

Grassley will win by a lot more than that, obviously. IA polling is among the worst in the country, and that’s saying a lot given the current state of the industry.

You think Grassley is going to break 60% again?

Even if he doesn’t, he’ll end up pretty close to that mark, esp. without third-party candidates on the ballot.

[Holmes]

If he does get his worst showing in decades during a Democratic midterm against an opponent with sexual assault allegations, that’s sad.

[2016]

There is only one Poll that I personally trust over everything else in this State and that's the DES MOINES REGISTER/IOWA POLL!

And generally speaking Pres Biden falling Job Approval Numbers will be a huge drag on Democrats everywhere in the Country.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Big Village and GCB has Ds up 51/46 and lol did you know where Rs were on GCB in 2010 with Obama Apparently 48/42 even in Rassy Rs are plus 2 on GCB not nearly where they need to be where they were in the Summer when gas prices were high Fox news had Rs plus 7

IA is a white populated state whereas the other blk and Brown states like PA and MI we are doing well in do you know the percentage of blks in IA 3 percent even in KY has 11 percent blk

IA has been gone since 2014 when Tom Harkin left the Sen it's just as gone for Ds as CO is gone for Rs, why do you think we are losing VT, NH Govs it's more White populated

We don't need Iowa anymore OH is more competitive than IA it's 12 percent blk

[2016]

Just for Starters here are the recent Elections in IOWA and the Final DM Register/Iowa Poll

2012 Obama vs Romney
Final DM Register IA Poll: Obama 47 / Romney 42
Actual Result: Obama 52,0 % / Romney 46,2 %

2014 Ernst vs Braley
Final DM Register IA Poll: Ernst 51 / Braley 44
Actual Result: Ernst 52,2 % / Braley 43,7 %

2016 Trump vs Clinton
Final DM Register IA Poll: Trump 46 / Clinton 39
Actual Result: Trump 51,2 % / Clinton 41,7 %

2018 Reynolds vs Hubbel
Final DM Register IA Poll: Reynolds 44 / Hubbel 46
Actual Result: Reynolds 50,4 % / Hubbel 47,4 %
It's the only Poll they missed in a decade. However the Race was within the MOE.

2020 Trump vs Biden
Final DM Register IA Poll: Trump 48 / Biden 41
Actual Result: Trump 53,2 % / Biden 45,0 %

2020 Ernst vs Greenfield
Final DM Register IA Poll: Ernst 46 / Greenfield 42
Actual Result: Ernst 51,8 % / Greenfield 45,2 %