Can the GOP regain Trump 2016 margins in the suburbs?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Forget 2012 let alone 2004 margins in the suburbs. I think Trump's 2016 performance was still pretty good in many suburban places and should be what Republicans are aiming for. There was a big shift from 2012 to 2020, can they get to that middle ground at least?

[Ferguson97]

The only went from R+4 to D+2 from 2016 to 2020. That's only a 6 point shift.

[TodayJunior]

Not as long as he’s the main focus of the Republican Party. The shift will only increase by 2024; however, the reverse is also true in the exurban and rural areas in pretty much every state - see Texas (DFW vs Rio Grande valley) and Minnesota (twin cities Vs iron range);

I only use those two states as examples of how they are static in their trends overall but the coalitions are changing.

Of course I’m painting a broad picture here; I’m aware of nuances within states (like Miami dade), just to clarify.

[Tekken_Guy]

Probably not in 2024 if he's the nominee again, unless Biden is really unpopular or someone far more toxic is the D nominee.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I have a working theory about 2022 that Southern suburbs will look like 2016, while other suburbs will look closer to 2020.  My theory about that is that Southern suburbs are significantly more religious than non-Southern suburbs (often having church attendance rates that tower over surrounding rural areas).  Because of that, Democratic messaging on abortion won't be as effective in Montgomery County, TX or Cherokee County, GA as it would be in Chester County, PA or Orange County, CA.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Probably not at the national level in the foreseeable future, unless the GOP dumps Don Giovanni and makes larger than expected gains with nonwhite voters of all races and younger voters of all educational levels.

[Spectator]

I have a working theory about 2022 that Southern suburbs will look like 2016, while other suburbs will look closer to 2020.  My theory about that is that Southern suburbs are significantly more religious than non-Southern suburbs (often having church attendance rates that tower over surrounding rural areas).  Because of that, Democratic messaging on abortion won't be as effective in Montgomery County, TX or Cherokee County, GA as it would be in Chester County, PA or Orange County, CA.

Southern suburbs are the exact place where I wouldn’t expect any reversion to the mean. The GOP is already winning the religious voters in these suburbs, aside from religious blacks of course. Southern suburbs have shifted largely due to transplants of liberal whites to places like there Atlanta metro and Texas metros. I find it unlikely that a place like Williamson County, Texas is going to suddenly revert back to 2016 margins. Very unlikely.

[MATTROSE94]

Ron DeSantis I think can hit Donald Trump 2020 levels in rural areas, Ronald Reagan 1984 levels with suburban voters, Richard Nixon 1972 levels with Hispanic voters, and Richard Nixon 1960 levels with African American voters.

[Spectator]

Ron DeSantis I think can hit Donald Trump 2020 levels in rural areas, Ronald Reagan 1984 levels with suburban voters, Richard Nixon 1972 levels with Hispanic voters, and Richard Nixon 1960 levels with African American voters.

Yes, Ron DeSantis will win New York and California.

[MATTROSE94]

Ron DeSantis I think can hit Donald Trump 2020 levels in rural areas, Ronald Reagan 1984 levels with suburban voters, Richard Nixon 1972 levels with Hispanic voters, and Richard Nixon 1960 levels with African American voters.

Yes, Ron DeSantis will win New York and California.

I think Ron DeSantis could win every state except Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, and DC.

[TodayJunior]

Ron will also win the territories of Puerto Rico, Guam, Virgin Islands, Greenland, Mexico, AND Canada...basically the North American continental shelf, which will have no choice but to agree to be annexed by the USA bc of Ron's superb leadership that is second to none. His total EV will be 999 with 1 protest elector for Bernie Sanders....bc no one bats 1000, not even King Ron

...SPEAKING OF...

After Ron's coronation, the Dominion of North America will ascend like a Phoenix to take on the powers that be - NATO, George Soros, Klaus Schawb, (et al) and plunge them into the fiery pit!!! You heard it here first! Q told me to trust the plan.

[MarkD]

Of course they CAN. But whether or not they will, and how soon that will happen is a question that's harder to answer. And don't forget that Trump failed to clear 47% of the NPV twice.