RI-2 Independent Roger Williams Poll: Fung + 6

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Fung could win here. From what I know about him, he is a sensible Republican. Whether he votes that way in Congress is another matter.

[Figueira]

This could be like the California districts in 2020 where the Republican is able to overperform a lot, but the partisanship of this district makes it hard for them to win.

New England, famously averse to parochialism and strange downballot Republicans.

I'm not betting on the third time being the charm for Fungmentum either, but people and places are not statistics. Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI

At the US House level? New England very rarely elects Republicans nowadays.

I agree that Cook PVI is stupid though.

[7,052,770]

Fung could win here. From what I know about him, he is a sensible Republican. Whether he votes that way in Congress is another matter.

He's going to vote for Kevin McCarthy to be Speaker, so that rules out him voting sensibly.

[Calthrina950]

Fung could win here. From what I know about him, he is a sensible Republican. Whether he votes that way in Congress is another matter.

He's going to vote for Kevin McCarthy to be Speaker, so that rules out him voting sensibly.

Not necessarily. I could see Fung becoming another Katko or Fitzpatrick. And why would you expect a Republican to vote against their Party Leader as Speaker?

[Sir Mohamed]

Fung could win here. From what I know about him, he is a sensible Republican. Whether he votes that way in Congress is another matter.

He's going to vote for Kevin McCarthy to be Speaker, so that rules out him voting sensibly.

Not necessarily. I could see Fung becoming another Katko or Fitzpatrick. And why would you expect a Republican to vote against their Party Leader as Speaker?

Agree with Calthrina here, this seat may flip. The poll may be flawed, but didn't we have at least another showing a right race? Not saying it will, but it could. It's common tactic though for both sides to scare voters with the (usually unpopular) party leadership of the other side.

May have been a good move by fung after his 2 failed gov bids to finally get a win under his belt. If 2026 is another D-midterm and McKee retires, he may actually win the governorship this time around.

[kwabbit]

Fung could win here. From what I know about him, he is a sensible Republican. Whether he votes that way in Congress is another matter.

He's going to vote for Kevin McCarthy to be Speaker, so that rules out him voting sensibly.

Not necessarily. I could see Fung becoming another Katko or Fitzpatrick. And why would you expect a Republican to vote against their Party Leader as Speaker?

Agree with Calthrina here, this seat may flip. The poll may be flawed, but didn't we have at least another showing a right race? Not saying it will, but it could. It's common tactic though for both sides to scare voters with the (usually unpopular) party leadership of the other side.

May have been a good move by fung after his 2 failed gov bids to finally get a win under his belt. If 2026 is another D-midterm and McKee retires, he may actually win the governorship this time around.

It would take some political wizardry for Fung to hold this seat in 2024. New England loves its moderate Republicans, but maintaining that image is a lot harder as a Congressman than a Governor. If he is able to win, he'd set be up well for the governorship.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Polarization Intensity
State Legislature < Governor < US House < US Senate < President

Polarization makes it tricky for Fung to win, but it isn't as intense as it would be for US Senate. RI-02 is pretty blue, but it doesn't mean it can't flip. In 2018 Dems flipped OK-05 and SC-01 both double digit Trump seats.

[7,052,770]

Fung could win here. From what I know about him, he is a sensible Republican. Whether he votes that way in Congress is another matter.

He's going to vote for Kevin McCarthy to be Speaker, so that rules out him voting sensibly.

Not necessarily. I could see Fung becoming another Katko or Fitzpatrick. And why would you expect a Republican to vote against their Party Leader as Speaker?

I don't, obviously. That's why it would be very silly for anyone left of center in RI-2 to vote Fung, regardless of how they like him personally, because he's guaranteed to cast the unreasonable, unjustifiable vote to make Kevin McCarthy the Speaker of the House.

And similarly, people who want that outcome should vote FOR Fung. But I think that the majority of RI-2 voters would prefer Pelosi as speaker to McCarthy.

[Senator Incitatus]

Fung could win here. From what I know about him, he is a sensible Republican. Whether he votes that way in Congress is another matter.

He's going to vote for Kevin McCarthy to be Speaker, so that rules out him voting sensibly.

Not necessarily. I could see Fung becoming another Katko or Fitzpatrick. And why would you expect a Republican to vote against their Party Leader as Speaker?

Agree with Calthrina here, this seat may flip. The poll may be flawed, but didn't we have at least another showing a right race? Not saying it will, but it could. It's common tactic though for both sides to scare voters with the (usually unpopular) party leadership of the other side.

May have been a good move by fung after his 2 failed gov bids to finally get a win under his belt. If 2026 is another D-midterm and McKee retires, he may actually win the governorship this time around.

It would take some political wizardry for Fung to hold this seat in 2024. New England loves its moderate Republicans, but maintaining that image is a lot harder as a Congressman than a Governor. If he is able to win, he'd set be up well for the governorship.

I don't think it would be very difficult at all, frankly. He'll have a harder time winning 2022. New Englanders love to see themselves as judicious, wise voters and salivate over any Republican (or Democrat) who breaks with his party once in a while. Rhode Island is also a state where trends may potentially accelerate away from the Democratic ticket quickly if Biden isn't on it to keep white Catholics on board.

[MT Treasurer]

those golden and fung leads are surely a sign of intense 'polarization' amirite

#pvimatters

[kwabbit]

those golden and fung leads are surely a sign of intense 'polarization' amirite

#pvimatters

Worth noting that Golden underperformed most polling drastically in 2020. Had Golden +9, +25, +28, +18 in the last month. I think ME-2 had the worst polling misses out of any oft-polled jurisdiction in 2020. Missed Trump's margin by 10 pts and Collin's humungous margin in ME-02 as well. Even if Poliquin wins, I doubt any poll will have him up. I think the 538 model has that race nailed pretty well with Golden having a 63% chance and a +2.8 margin.

[It’s so Joever]

We have been getting some rather...illogical polls when they come together. I think someone predicted 2022 would be a strange election with little true pattern, depolarization, and a bunch of divergences in both directions. If so the takes on election night will be amazing to see.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

We have been getting some rather...illogical polls when they come together. I think someone predicted 2022 would be a strange election with little true pattern, depolarization, and a bunch of divergences in both directions. If so the takes on election night will be amazing to see.

I just can't see Fung winning in a neutral environment. I still expect a Red wave that is diluted by candidate quality on both sides.. we could see bizarre results like Republicans winning districts that are Biden +10 or more(GA 02, NM 03, OR 06, RI 02) and Democrats winning Biden +<5 districts(think GA Sen NC 13, MI 07, KS-3) or even Trump districts(AK AL, ME 02, OH 09)

[MATTROSE94]

Fung could win here. From what I know about him, he is a sensible Republican. Whether he votes that way in Congress is another matter.

I agree. Allen Fung seems like a Susan Collins style Republican based on the interviews I’ve seen with him. I think he will be a lifer if he ends up (likely) winning in November.