RI-2 Independent Roger Williams Poll: Fung + 6

[2016]

There is no two ways about it. If Republicans are winning RI-2 there is no way that Democrats will be in the Majority come January.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Press X to doubt

[Lief 🗽]

Oh, a poll that sampled only 250 people? Let me show you where those go:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's already an RH anyways, but it's only 6 pts

[Senator Incitatus]

Still a toss-up. Would like to see more polling, maybe.

[kwabbit]

Odd that Magaziner has not released any internals to counter the narrative that Fung is leading by a healthy margin.

It would be odd for Fung to be leading by so much, especially when he barely won it in 2014 and lost it in 2018. Maybe this district has truly shifted right, which wouldn't be that surprising given its demographics, but I think this will be within a few points either way.

[Real Texan Politics]

Fung still wins in my opinion, but that’s a horrible sample size. Probably won’t even win by that much anyways.

[BenjiG98]

Extremely small sample size with a 6.2% MOE? Horrible poll.

[Pericles]

This could be like the California districts in 2020 where the Republican is able to overperform a lot, but the partisanship of this district makes it hard for them to win.

[swf541]

Sample size of less then 300, junk it

[2016]

Fung still wins in my opinion, but that’s a horrible sample size. Probably won’t even win by that much anyways.

Let's be honest here: This Race shouldn't be even close and IF it is come E-Day/Night it either contradicts the notion that Democrats were leading the GCB or the ABC/WaPo Poll was right all along.

[wbrocks67]

Odd that Magaziner has not released any internals to counter the narrative that Fung is leading by a healthy margin.

It would be odd for Fung to be leading by so much, especially when he barely won it in 2014 and lost it in 2018. Maybe this district has truly shifted right, which wouldn't be that surprising given its demographics, but I think this will be within a few points either way.

who is saying that narrative? i don't think anyone is.

250 people sample with a MOE of 6% is... yikes

[kwabbit]

Odd that Magaziner has not released any internals to counter the narrative that Fung is leading by a healthy margin.

It would be odd for Fung to be leading by so much, especially when he barely won it in 2014 and lost it in 2018. Maybe this district has truly shifted right, which wouldn't be that surprising given its demographics, but I think this will be within a few points either way.

who is saying that narrative? i don't think anyone is.

250 people sample with a MOE of 6% is... yikes

We've gotten two Fung +6 independent polls and one Fung +15 internal. On each poll, the narrative was that Fung seems to be leading but it's unlikely to last/poll is weird. Certainly, all these results are odd but they are agreeing with each other.

Magaziner hasn't released anything to dispel that notion. Cook has it as a tossup. What are your thoughts?

[wbrocks67]

Odd that Magaziner has not released any internals to counter the narrative that Fung is leading by a healthy margin.

It would be odd for Fung to be leading by so much, especially when he barely won it in 2014 and lost it in 2018. Maybe this district has truly shifted right, which wouldn't be that surprising given its demographics, but I think this will be within a few points either way.

who is saying that narrative? i don't think anyone is.

250 people sample with a MOE of 6% is... yikes

We've gotten two Fung +6 independent polls and one Fung +15 internal. On each poll, the narrative was that Fung seems to be leading but it's unlikely to last/poll is weird. Certainly, all these results are odd but they are agreeing with each other.

Magaziner hasn't released anything to dispel that notion. Cook has it as a tossup. What are your thoughts?

Sis i have no idea but I think it'd be best for a poll that's not an internal or one that has a 250 sample

[7,052,770]

Man, remember how we celebrated when Rhode Island unexpectedly kept 2 House seats? Are we about to be fools?

[kwabbit]

Odd that Magaziner has not released any internals to counter the narrative that Fung is leading by a healthy margin.

It would be odd for Fung to be leading by so much, especially when he barely won it in 2014 and lost it in 2018. Maybe this district has truly shifted right, which wouldn't be that surprising given its demographics, but I think this will be within a few points either way.

who is saying that narrative? i don't think anyone is.

250 people sample with a MOE of 6% is... yikes

We've gotten two Fung +6 independent polls and one Fung +15 internal. On each poll, the narrative was that Fung seems to be leading but it's unlikely to last/poll is weird. Certainly, all these results are odd but they are agreeing with each other.

Magaziner hasn't released anything to dispel that notion. Cook has it as a tossup. What are your thoughts?

Sis i have no idea but I think it'd be best for a poll that's not an internal or one that has a 250 sample

The Suffolk was 423. The internal was Public Opinion Strategies, which uses 400 typically. 254 is unusually low, must be a cheapo sponsor.

[kwabbit]

Man, remember how we celebrated when Rhode Island unexpectedly kept 2 House seats? Are we about to be fools?

RI had a heroic effort to beat the system lol. Had the biggest Census overcount after Census Director/Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo really prioritized it. I find it really funny that Rhode Island was projected to lose the seat, massively overperformed expectations, then a year later the Census Bureau says Rhode Island was overcounted.

It would be a beautiful thing to have an RI-2, a MT-2, and a DE-2 at the same time. Unlikely to happen sadly. Interestingly, Delaware has never had a second house district. When they had more than one rep, they used an At Large district as well.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like Fung gets 24% of Democrats here; Magaziner only getting 63% support.

Can't imagine that actually holds up on Election Day.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I might have believed this earlier in the year, but I'm pretty certain Magaziner will still win. Fung might over-perform and come close, but it'll be yet another defeat for him.

[Mr.Phips]

Dems just need to make it clear that a vote for Fung is a vote for McCarthy as speaker.

[If my soul was made of stone]

This could be like the California districts in 2020 where the Republican is able to overperform a lot, but the partisanship of this district makes it hard for them to win.

New England, famously averse to parochialism and strange downballot Republicans.

I'm not betting on the third time being the charm for Fungmentum either, but people and places are not statistics. Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI

[Pericles]

This could be like the California districts in 2020 where the Republican is able to overperform a lot, but the partisanship of this district makes it hard for them to win.

New England, famously averse to parochialism and strange downballot Republicans.

I'm not betting on the third time being the charm for Fungmentum either, but people and places are not statistics. Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI Abolish Cook PVI

I just said that he could win, and it might not even mean there's a red wave, but even then we it isn't dumb to assume that a Republican is the underdog when they're up against a Biden +13% margin. Even more than other predictions though, there's quite a wide range of possibilities.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

While if this is anywhere close to true, of which I am also highly skeptical, Democrats should be ecstatic

Fung wining a Biden +13 district shows voters value candidate quality above all else, above silly partisan concerns. Democrats will sweep the Senate. /s

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The sooner we lower our expectations, the less disappointed we will be in November.
Fung has a good shot, and imo in New England, it's one of the only two seats that has a strong chance of electing a republican, the other being CT 05

[bilaps]

Odd that Magaziner has not released any internals to counter the narrative that Fung is leading by a healthy margin.

It would be odd for Fung to be leading by so much, especially when he barely won it in 2014 and lost it in 2018. Maybe this district has truly shifted right, which wouldn't be that surprising given its demographics, but I think this will be within a few points either way.

who is saying that narrative? i don't think anyone is.

250 people sample with a MOE of 6% is... yikes

We've gotten two Fung +6 independent polls and one Fung +15 internal. On each poll, the narrative was that Fung seems to be leading but it's unlikely to last/poll is weird. Certainly, all these results are odd but they are agreeing with each other.

Magaziner hasn't released anything to dispel that notion. Cook has it as a tossup. What are your thoughts?

 i have no idea

Understatement of the decade