NV-SEN (CNN): Masto +3 (RV) / Laxalt +2 (LV)

[Pericles]

This is not a guaranteed Republican pickup in a neutral national environment, especially because the Dobbs effect could hit harder here.

There are a lot of factors that can save Democrats in Nevada this year, but they're not really being reflected in the polls or in news from the race since both major statewide races are garnering such little attention. For that reason I still have both as tossups, and most prognosticators seem to also for that reason. But, in the Senate at least, it is undeniably the GOP's best chance at a pickup now.

I'd agree with that, but it looks like the other seats are at least Tilt or Lean D so 51 seats is pretty plausible. Wisconsin and North Carolina aren't unwinnable but are looking like narrow losses at this stage.

[Progressive Pessimist]

How many women get abortions? Very few.
The idea that Dobbs is some powerhouse is a joke at this point

Oh come on now, you know better than this.

 Reproductive freedom isn't entirely an interest of those who want to get an abortion, threats to it are a middle finger to the very concepts of autonomy and privacy which most women value. The Dobbs decision is an affront to all women, and one doesn't have to have had an abortion to care about others' access to it. Why are so many men upset about it then? I'm a man. I'm never going to be pregnant. But the very idea that underage girls can now be forced to have a rapists' baby or have to bring an already deceased fetus to term with some state laws pisses me the f*** off! And I will factor it into my vote. I am very clearly not alone on this. So just imagine how many women around the country feel.

[wbrocks67]

How many women get abortions? Very few.
The idea that Dobbs is some powerhouse is a joke at this point

Oh come on now, you know better than this.

 Reproductive freedom isn't entirely an interest of those who want to get an abortion, threats to it are a middle finger to the very concepts of autonomy and privacy which most women value. The Dobbs decision is an affront to all women, and one doesn't have to have had an abortion to care about others' access to it. Why are so many men upset about it then? I'm a man. I'm never going to be pregnant. But the very idea that underage girls can now be forced to have a rapists' baby or have to bring an already deceased fetus to term with some state laws pisses me the f*** off! And I will factor it into my vote. I am very clearly not alone on this. So just imagine how many women around the country feel.

I wouldn't even have bothered responding to this. He's either trolling or being purposely obtuse.

[Хahar 🤔]

How many women get abortions? Very few.
The idea that Dobbs is some powerhouse is a joke at this point

Oh come on now, you know better than this.

I see no evidence that this poster does in fact "know better than this"

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Always trust the RVs, especially in hard to poll states.

[Calthrina950]

Always trust the RVs, especially in hard to poll states.

Why so? I thought likely voters was the better mechanism to adjudge by. Does this mean that Masto is going to win again?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Always trust the RVs, especially in hard to poll states.

Why so? I thought likely voters was the better mechanism to adjudge by. Does this mean that Masto is going to win again?

I don’t have a study but I have noticed that when polling ‘misses’ it’s usually just he likely voter models missing and the RV numbers being fairly accurate.
I think on the whole the RV and LV samples tend to have similar accuracy, but LV screens are usually ‘have you voted in the past x elections’ and ‘how likely are you to vote’ and everyone that doesn’t say ‘very likely’ or ‘certain’ gets thrown out. As sampling bias (people avoiding pollsters unless they are already very engaged by and large) becomes a bigger issue these screens become less useful. And especially in a place like Nevada where infrequent voters and recent arrivals are a substantial portion of the electorate.
I’m not saying Matso should be happy about this poll but given the choice I’d rather be up in the RV sample and down in the LV sample than vis versa.

[wbrocks67]

Always trust the RVs, especially in hard to poll states.

Why so? I thought likely voters was the better mechanism to adjudge by. Does this mean that Masto is going to win again?

I would also argue that Nevada being an all-mail state this year makes the LV screen discrepancy more untrustworthy.

I would also imagine LV models in this type of midterm could really be wonky.

[MT Treasurer]

These are the guys who had Kelly up by 10 (RV) and 6 (LV), and above 50% in both cases. Very telling that this is the best they can do for Cortez Masto.

[jamestroll]

These are the guys who had Kelly up by 10 (RV) and 6 (LV), respectively. Very telling that this is the best they can do for Cortez Masto.

nevada will  be punished when it completely runs of water for electing the GOP to all major offices