NV-SEN (CNN): Masto +3 (RV) / Laxalt +2 (LV)

[wbrocks67]

RV:
Masto (D) 47%
Laxalt (R) 44%
None of these 5%
Other 3%
Undecided 1%

Masto fav: 45/42 (+3)
Laxalt fav: 35/46 (-11)

LV:
Laxalt (R) 48%
Masto (D) 46%
None of these 2%
Other 3%

Masto fav: 45/44 (+1)
Laxalt fav: 39/46 (-7)

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23126491-cnn-poll-nevada-october-2022

[soundchaser]

It’s pretty clear now that NV is the most likely R flip this cycle. I still think this race is up in the air, especially given the LV/RV split here.

[HidingCommentary]

Always skeptical of a large voter screen difference.

[politicallefty]

This race is concerning. Is there a Democratic turnout machine without Harry Reid?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I knew Trafalgar was trying to pump up LAXALT

[Devils30]

This RV/LV thing reeks of every bad past Nevada poll. I don’t think this a good poll for Laxalt at all to be honest.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This feels like a good poll for Masto.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23126492-cnn-poll-arizona-october-2022

This is a link to an Arizona Poll

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This race is concerning. Is there a Democratic turnout machine without Harry Reid?

Doesn't a big gap between RVs and LVs suggest a very effective turnout machine?  I.e. Dems usually win in NV because they get the non-LVs to turnout?

[politicallefty]

This race is concerning. Is there a Democratic turnout machine without Harry Reid?

Doesn't a big gap between RVs and LVs suggest a very effective turnout machine?  I.e. Dems usually win in NV because they get the non-LVs to turnout?

Yeah, that was my point. The NV turnout machine was a creation of Harry Reid. This is the first general election in decades without Harry Reid at the helm of the turnout machine he created. It remains to be seen if it can survive without and beyond him.

[kwabbit]

This race is concerning. Is there a Democratic turnout machine without Harry Reid?

Doesn't a big gap between RVs and LVs suggest a very effective turnout machine?  I.e. Dems usually win in NV because they get the non-LVs to turnout?

Yeah, that was my point. The NV turnout machine was a creation of Harry Reid. This is the first general election in decades without Harry Reid at the helm of the turnout machine he created. It remains to be seen if it can survive without and beyond him.

I don’t think Harry has been at the helm for a while. However, the NV Dem party was taken over by anti establishment DemSoc types. The relationship between the unions and the new party leadership may be fractured, which could weaken Dem turnout. Not that the unions would endorse Laxalt or endorse no one, but it might not put as much effort in to shepherd its voters to CCM.

[Minnesota Mike]

I'm not saying which number is correct but the RV/LV difference is absurd IMO, especially in a vote by mail state.

[Minnesota Mike]

I don’t think Harry has been at the helm for a while. However, the NV Dem party was taken over by anti establishment DemSoc types. The relationship between the unions and the new party leadership may be fractured, which could weaken Dem turnout. Not that the unions would endorse Laxalt or endorse no one, but it might not put as much effort in to shepherd its voters to CCM.

You don't know Unions very well.

[kwabbit]

I don’t think Harry has been at the helm for a while. However, the NV Dem party was taken over by anti establishment DemSoc types. The relationship between the unions and the new party leadership may be fractured, which could weaken Dem turnout. Not that the unions would endorse Laxalt or endorse no one, but it might not put as much effort in to shepherd its voters to CCM.

You don't know Unions very well.

You’re right, I don’t. Just providing a thought, lol. All I know is that unions can sometimes influence their members a lot and sometimes a little. What are your thoughts on the relationship between unions and their members’ voting patterns, specifically in regards to the Culinary and Casino unions in Las Vegas?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Oof, that is a painful RV/LV split.

Definitely feeling pessimistic here.

[KaiserDave]

Just curious was there a Spanish language option?

[Lief 🗽]

Let's just pray that the DSA lunatics who hijacked the NV state party have kept our big, beautiful Reid turnout machine in good working order.

[wbrocks67]

The LV screen seems to be cycling out more younger voters, likely because they may not have put "extremely motivated" to vote, which isn't surprising.

For example, among 18-49 year olds, Masto leads by 5 in the RV sample (46-41). It then totally goes the other way to Laxalt +7 (49-42) among LV. Likely cycled out a ton of younger voters it didn't deem "likely", I guess.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not saying which number is correct but the RV/LV difference is absurd IMO, especially in a vote by mail state.

Also one where every voter is getting a mail-in ballot this year, I believe. A la CA.

[soundchaser]

The LV screen seems to be cycling out more younger voters, likely because they may not have put "extremely motivated" to vote, which isn't surprising.

For example, among 18-49 year olds, Masto leads by 5 in the RV sample (46-41). It then totally goes the other way to Laxalt +7 (49-42) among LV. Likely cycled out a ton of younger voters it didn't deem "likely", I guess.

This cycle's polling is going to live or die by its LV models - and I suspect it's the latter for a lot of outfits.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm glad to see Cortez Masto leading in a poll at all, but it's still not all that reassuring. Thankfully, with the Georgia and Pennsylvania revelations it's looking like Nevada might not matter at all. Obviously it would be nice to have 51 seats instead of 50, so there are still stakes here pertaining to that and Democrats' future in Nevada in general.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Given that we will very likely lose WV and possibly MT in 2024, I think we need to win every Senate seat we can.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Given that we will very likely lose WV and possibly MT in 2024, I think we need to win every Senate seat we can.

Absolutely, but we can only be so lucky this year. The fact that Arizona and Georgia look like they're going to be held while Pennsylvania flips is incredible luck based on how past Senate cycles have been for Democrats.

[Pericles]

This is not a guaranteed Republican pickup in a neutral national environment, especially because the Dobbs effect could hit harder here.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is not a guaranteed Republican pickup in a neutral national environment, especially because the Dobbs effect could hit harder here.

There are a lot of factors that can save Democrats in Nevada this year, but they're not really being reflected in the polls or in news from the race since both major statewide races are garnering such little attention. For that reason I still have both as tossups, and most prognosticators seem to also for that reason. But, in the Senate at least, it is undeniably the GOP's best chance at a pickup now.