AZ-SEN (CNN): Kelly +10 (RV) / +6 (LV)

[wbrocks67]

RV:
Kelly (D) 52%
Masters (R) 42%
Neither 5%
Other 2%

Kelly fav: 49/39 (+10)
Masters fav: 32/48 (-16)

LV:
Kelly (D) 51%
Masters (R) 45%
Neither 3%
Other 1%

Kelly fav: 48/42 (+6)
Masters fav: 35/51 (-16)

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23126492-cnn-poll-arizona-october-2022

[Senator Incitatus]

Tracks with my impression that Masters supporters will be significantly more motivated to get out and vote, given his third-rail stances. Looks like this is CNN's first poll in the race, so not much to say here other than consistency with the conventional wisdom.

[kwabbit]

Tracks with my impression that Masters supporters will be significantly more motivated to get out, given his "extreme" views. Looks like this is CNN's first poll in the race.

Is Masters’ inspiring? I get the impression that he really only excites the online right. He’s extreme, but in a unique way that doesn’t resonate with the generic Trumpy exurban foot soldier.

I might be biased though. I dislike Masters more than basically any GOP candidate. It does feel like he’s trying to dupe people into thinking he’s a conservative family man when he really wants to enter the Senate and promote his Thielite techno-fascist fixations.

[politicallefty]

Both margins are identical to Kelly's fav/unfav numbers. Holding above 50% also isn't a bad sign.

[Senator Incitatus]

Tracks with my impression that Masters supporters will be significantly more motivated to get out, given his "extreme" views. Looks like this is CNN's first poll in the race.

Is Masters’ inspiring? I get the impression that he really only excites the online right. He’s extreme, but in a unique way that doesn’t resonate with the generic Trumpy exurban foot soldier.

I might be biased though. I dislike Masters more than basically any GOP candidate. It does feel like he’s trying to dupe people into thinking he’s a conservative family man when he really wants to enter the Senate and promote his Thielite techno-fascist fixations.

Masters takes a hard line on immigration and crime; I have no idea why anyone would think this is something that appeals only to the "online right." Obviously, his style is rooted there, but style isn't what won him the nomination. Maybe this forum misses bronz more than I realized.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

LOL, what garbage. Looks like pollsters are looking to embarrass themselves when it comes to AZ once again.

[kwabbit]

Tracks with my impression that Masters supporters will be significantly more motivated to get out, given his "extreme" views. Looks like this is CNN's first poll in the race.

Is Masters’ inspiring? I get the impression that he really only excites the online right. He’s extreme, but in a unique way that doesn’t resonate with the generic Trumpy exurban foot soldier.

I might be biased though. I dislike Masters more than basically any GOP candidate. It does feel like he’s trying to dupe people into thinking he’s a conservative family man when he really wants to enter the Senate and promote his Thielite techno-fascist fixations.

Masters takes a hard line on immigration and crime; I have no idea why anyone would think this is something that appeals only to the "online right." Obviously, his style is rooted there, but style isn't what won him the nomination. Maybe this forum misses bronz more than I realized.

The ideological basis for a position does influence resonance IMO. Trumpian opposition to immigration and crime stemmed from a more innate nativism, where it felt like Trump was channeling the “heart” of the base on the issue. Masters is certainly coming from a more erudite position where his opposition to immigration has a formal ideological basis, derived from a conception of how he thinks society should function.

Maybe that didn’t make too much sense, but I think Trump was so good at capturing the base because Trump thinks like an uneducated person. Trump is just against immigration because he is; there’s no grand theory of Trumpism underlying it. While Masters does have that underlying grand theory. But a normal person doesn’t have a theory, they are just against immigration because they are.

[BenjiG98]

LOL, what garbage. Looks like pollsters are looking to embarrass themselves when it comes to AZ once again.

It's not hard to believe Kelly is up. Will he win by 10? Likely not. Will he will by low single digits? Probably. I think it's a bit hackish to call this "embarrassing" or garbage.

[Unelectable Bystander]

LOL, what garbage. Looks like pollsters are looking to embarrass themselves when it comes to AZ once again.

It's not hard to believe Kelly is up. Will he win by 10? Likely not. Will he will by low single digits? Probably. I think it's a bit hackish to call this "embarrassing" or garbage.

It sounds like you are proving the point by agreeing that the poll is not anywhere close to what most would consider a reasonably good result for Kelly.

[Holmes]

LOL, what garbage. Looks like pollsters are looking to embarrass themselves when it comes to AZ once again.

It's not hard to believe Kelly is up. Will he win by 10? Likely not. Will he will by low single digits? Probably. I think it's a bit hackish to call this "embarrassing" or garbage.

It sounds like you are proving the point by agreeing that the poll is not anywhere close to what most would consider a reasonably good result for Kelly.

It actually sounds like we don’t know what the final result will be and judging a poll based on what we think will be the final result is stupid.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How the f*** is the Republican winning the SoS race in this poll while Dems are winning the Sen and Gov races?  Finchem might be the single most deranged person running for statewide office this year.

[xavier110]

How the f*** is the Republican winning the SoS race in this poll while Dems are winning the Sen and Gov races?  Finchem might be the single most deranged person running for statewide office this year.

People are defaulting to their generic R ways down ballot. They don’t know anything about Finchem, but they’ve seen ads about Masters and/or heard crazy stuff Lake has said. That would be the reason.

I would not be surprised by any combo of wins for Rs/ Ds here statewide, since we have this squishy slice of voters who seem to despise the kooks but also reflexively vote R normally.

[Unelectable Bystander]

LOL, what garbage. Looks like pollsters are looking to embarrass themselves when it comes to AZ once again.

It's not hard to believe Kelly is up. Will he win by 10? Likely not. Will he will by low single digits? Probably. I think it's a bit hackish to call this "embarrassing" or garbage.

It sounds like you are proving the point by agreeing that the poll is not anywhere close to what most would consider a reasonably good result for Kelly.

It actually sounds like we don’t know what the final result will be and judging a poll based on what we think will be the final result is stupid.

My comment was only directed at the fact that he or she called the comment hackish and then proceeded to come to the same conclusion that it’s extremely unlikely for Kelly to win by that margin.

But yes that does happen to be my opinion as well. It’s not based on my priors but the surrounding context. Arizona is to the right of the country and has not in recent history elected a democrat by more than a tight margin. The first time that it is supposed to happen is in a federal election for a democrat midterm, in an unstable economy, where the president is unpopular (super unpopular per their own poll), and republicans lead the GCB in every Arizona poll (including apparently this one by a large amount)? That sounds much more complicated than that the poll could be underestimating the vote share of specific candidates.

I’m pretty confident in that so I’ll go on the record and call it. Masters (unless he has a breaking scandal) will either win or lose while keeping it within 5 points.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Lean D, as expected

[wbrocks67]

How the f*** is the Republican winning the SoS race in this poll while Dems are winning the Sen and Gov races?  Finchem might be the single most deranged person running for statewide office this year.

To be fair, the LV screen is a bit whacky here. Fontes is actually up 1 among RV, but Finchem goes to +4 among the LV screen. The LV model being this favorable to GOP is a bit much imo - same as NV.

[Person Man]

I guess they think that more Democrats than Republicans will forget to vote.

[DaleCooper]

I think Kelly can probably win very narrowly, maybe about on par with 2020, which dramatically overestimated him.

[wbrocks67]

What's pretty crazy here is just the fact that people do not like Masters. Even in a more favorable LV screen, his net fav stays the exact same, at -16.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What's pretty crazy here is just the fact that people do not like Masters. Even in a more favorable LV screen, his net fav stays the exact same, at -16.

Well, Masters is very unlikable, so it's not too crazy.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Tracks with my impression that Masters supporters will be significantly more motivated to get out and vote, given his third-rail stances. Looks like this is CNN's first poll in the race, so not much to say here other than consistency with the conventional wisdom.

With all due respect, if your betting on democrats being less likely to show up being the thing that puts Masters over the top, you are going to be very disappointed. Democrats are the high propensity party now

[President Johnson]

I don't think senate and governor will end up that far apart. Kelly getting 52% of the vote is very much possible.

[Spectator]

I don't think senate and governor will end up that far apart. Kelly getting 52% of the vote is very much possible.

This poll only shows a 2% spread between Gov and Sen which I think is much more believable than a few of the 6+% ones.

[sg0508]

If Kelly is >50%, this one may be just about over.