OR-06: Cygnal/Erickson (R) internal - Erickson +5

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1578004673365245952

[BenjiG98]

OR-06 is definitely a dark horse pickup opportunity. Wasn't it 1994 when Republicans last held more than one seat in Oregon?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I really have no idea what's going to happen in Oregon this year.

[S019]

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this district is going to swing 18 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 7, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Oregon while holding up well elsewhere.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this district is going to swing 18 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 7, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Oregon while holding up well elsewhere.

this poll is clearly junk for categorical reasons but also like

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this county is going to swing 55 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 60, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Starr County while holding up well elsewhere.

stop reading rachel bitecofer

[S019]

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this district is going to swing 18 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 7, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Oregon while holding up well elsewhere.

this poll is clearly junk for categorical reasons but also like

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this county is going to swing 55 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 60, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Starr County while holding up well elsewhere.

stop reading rachel bitecofer

Starr County is very, very different from suburban Oregon, and in hindsight, there were good reasons to think Democrats would collapse there. (It's clear that the Democratic Party brand was increasingly at odds with the socially conservative beliefs of border Hispanics and it's also clear that "Defund the Police" rhetoric was especially damaging in a place where law enforcement (either as local law enforcement or as border patrol) is a major source of employment.) This district is literally Salem and the suburbs of Portland. Unless Oregon voters are single issue crime voters I don't see why they'd collapse specifically there and hold up well in similar suburbs/small cities across the country.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This race is Lean/Likely D until proven otherwise.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this district is going to swing 18 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 7, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Oregon while holding up well elsewhere.

Not being Snarky but I totally agree with your last statement. The idea dems can even come close to losing this district in a neutral year is laughable at best

[Spectator]

I really have no idea what's going to happen in Oregon this year.

I don’t think the House races are in serious jeopardy aside from maybe OR-05, and that would just be a rental. The Governor’s race seems weird since yes, it looks like a Republican is narrowly favored there, but if she wins that race, it doesn’t seem like she’ll get close to 50%. I don’t see Drazan coattails in the House races as a result.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I really have no idea what's going to happen in Oregon this year.

I don’t think the House races are in serious jeopardy aside from maybe OR-05, and that would just be a rental. The Governor’s race seems weird since yes, it looks like a Republican is narrowly favored there, but if she wins that race, it doesn’t seem like she’ll get close to 50%. I don’t see Drazan coattails in the House races as a result.

Even OR-5 should be a hold at the end of the day imo

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't believe OR numbers

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I really have no idea what's going to happen in Oregon this year.

I don’t think the House races are in serious jeopardy aside from maybe OR-05, and that would just be a rental. The Governor’s race seems weird since yes, it looks like a Republican is narrowly favored there, but if she wins that race, it doesn’t seem like she’ll get close to 50%. I don’t see Drazan coattails in the House races as a result.

Even OR-5 should be a hold at the end of the day imo

In a neutral year of course it should be a hold. Neutral year and an open OR 5 voting republican are not compatible. Skinner is not great as a candidate but she's not even close to being bad enough to lose in a neutral year

[kwabbit]

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this district is going to swing 18 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 7, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Oregon while holding up well elsewhere.

this poll is clearly junk for categorical reasons but also like

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this county is going to swing 55 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 60, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Starr County while holding up well elsewhere.

stop reading rachel bitecofer

Starr County is very, very different from suburban Oregon, and in hindsight, there were good reasons to think Democrats would collapse there. (It's clear that the Democratic Party brand was increasingly at odds with the socially conservative beliefs of border Hispanics and it's also clear that "Defund the Police" rhetoric was especially damaging in a place where law enforcement (either as local law enforcement or as border patrol) is a major source of employment.) This district is literally Salem and the suburbs of Portland. Unless Oregon voters are single issue crime voters I don't see why they'd collapse specifically there and hold up well in similar suburbs/small cities across the country.

If OR-6 and OR-5 flip it will be extremely easy to explain why. Oregonians clearly have a lot of dissatisfaction with the Democratic party. Kate Brown is the least popular governor in the country; that will affect every Democrat running for the office in the state, regardless of their relationship with her. Kotek is only going to get 42% or so at the top of the ticket. The party line will be broken for so many swing voters. If they're voting for Johnson, they'll take a closer look at congressional Republicans than they might have otherwise.

These two districts aren't that Democratic in the first place either. OR-5 is Clinton +3/Biden +9. OR-6 is Clinton +7/Biden+13. The West Coast is also more favorable to the GOP down ballot. When Oregonians are upset about progressive excesses and you nominate progressive candidates that will be easy to paint as soft on crime, inflationary over spenders, you can get a situation like this. I don't think the GOP wins these unless they have a good night, but these are the type of districts that flip regularly in midterm years.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this district is going to swing 18 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 7, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Oregon while holding up well elsewhere.

this poll is clearly junk for categorical reasons but also like

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this county is going to swing 55 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 60, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Starr County while holding up well elsewhere.

stop reading rachel bitecofer

Starr County is very, very different from suburban Oregon, and in hindsight, there were good reasons to think Democrats would collapse there. (It's clear that the Democratic Party brand was increasingly at odds with the socially conservative beliefs of border Hispanics and it's also clear that "Defund the Police" rhetoric was especially damaging in a place where law enforcement (either as local law enforcement or as border patrol) is a major source of employment.) This district is literally Salem and the suburbs of Portland. Unless Oregon voters are single issue crime voters I don't see why they'd collapse specifically there and hold up well in similar suburbs/small cities across the country.

If OR-6 and OR-5 flip it will be extremely easy to explain why. Oregonians clearly have a lot of dissatisfaction with the Democratic party. Kate Brown is the least popular governor in the country; that will affect every Democrat running for the office in the state, regardless of their relationship with her. Kotek is only going to get 42% or so at the top of the ticket. The party line will be broken for so many swing voters. If they're voting for Johnson, they'll take a closer look at congressional Republicans than they might have otherwise.

These two districts aren't that Democratic in the first place either. OR-5 is Clinton +3/Biden +9. OR-6 is Clinton +7/Biden+13. The West Coast is also more favorable to the GOP down ballot. When Oregonians are upset about progressive excesses and you nominate progressive candidates that will be easy to paint as soft on crime, inflationary over spenders, you can get a situation like this. I don't think the GOP wins these unless they have a good night, but these are the type of districts that flip regularly in midterm years.

The Republican candidates are dumpster fire-tier awful though

[Spectator]

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this district is going to swing 18 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 7, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Oregon while holding up well elsewhere.

this poll is clearly junk for categorical reasons but also like

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this county is going to swing 55 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 60, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Starr County while holding up well elsewhere.

stop reading rachel bitecofer

Starr County is very, very different from suburban Oregon, and in hindsight, there were good reasons to think Democrats would collapse there. (It's clear that the Democratic Party brand was increasingly at odds with the socially conservative beliefs of border Hispanics and it's also clear that "Defund the Police" rhetoric was especially damaging in a place where law enforcement (either as local law enforcement or as border patrol) is a major source of employment.) This district is literally Salem and the suburbs of Portland. Unless Oregon voters are single issue crime voters I don't see why they'd collapse specifically there and hold up well in similar suburbs/small cities across the country.

If OR-6 and OR-5 flip it will be extremely easy to explain why. Oregonians clearly have a lot of dissatisfaction with the Democratic party. Kate Brown is the least popular governor in the country; that will affect every Democrat running for the office in the state, regardless of their relationship with her. Kotek is only going to get 42% or so at the top of the ticket. The party line will be broken for so many swing voters. If they're voting for Johnson, they'll take a closer look at congressional Republicans than they might have otherwise.

These two districts aren't that Democratic in the first place either. OR-5 is Clinton +3/Biden +9. OR-6 is Clinton +7/Biden+13. The West Coast is also more favorable to the GOP down ballot. When Oregonians are upset about progressive excesses and you nominate progressive candidates that will be easy to paint as soft on crime, inflationary over spenders, you can get a situation like this. I don't think the GOP wins these unless they have a good night, but these are the type of districts that flip regularly in midterm years.

Yeah, but Drazan, while leading, isn’t doing that well in her own right. She’s often leading with less than 40% of the vote, and that’s not enough to drag OR-5 and OR-6 across the line downballot.

[kwabbit]

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this district is going to swing 18 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 7, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Oregon while holding up well elsewhere.

this poll is clearly junk for categorical reasons but also like

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this county is going to swing 55 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 60, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Starr County while holding up well elsewhere.

stop reading rachel bitecofer

Starr County is very, very different from suburban Oregon, and in hindsight, there were good reasons to think Democrats would collapse there. (It's clear that the Democratic Party brand was increasingly at odds with the socially conservative beliefs of border Hispanics and it's also clear that "Defund the Police" rhetoric was especially damaging in a place where law enforcement (either as local law enforcement or as border patrol) is a major source of employment.) This district is literally Salem and the suburbs of Portland. Unless Oregon voters are single issue crime voters I don't see why they'd collapse specifically there and hold up well in similar suburbs/small cities across the country.

If OR-6 and OR-5 flip it will be extremely easy to explain why. Oregonians clearly have a lot of dissatisfaction with the Democratic party. Kate Brown is the least popular governor in the country; that will affect every Democrat running for the office in the state, regardless of their relationship with her. Kotek is only going to get 42% or so at the top of the ticket. The party line will be broken for so many swing voters. If they're voting for Johnson, they'll take a closer look at congressional Republicans than they might have otherwise.

These two districts aren't that Democratic in the first place either. OR-5 is Clinton +3/Biden +9. OR-6 is Clinton +7/Biden+13. The West Coast is also more favorable to the GOP down ballot. When Oregonians are upset about progressive excesses and you nominate progressive candidates that will be easy to paint as soft on crime, inflationary over spenders, you can get a situation like this. I don't think the GOP wins these unless they have a good night, but these are the type of districts that flip regularly in midterm years.

Yeah, but Drazan, while leading, isn’t doing that well in her own right. She’s often leading with less than 40% of the vote, and that’s not enough to drag OR-5 and OR-6 across the line downballot.

Drazan won’t have coattails. It’s more that Kotek won’t have any. The critical factor will be how Johnson voters go in the house races. These voters are obviously not particularly loyal to the Democratic Party. If you’re a Johnson voter, even if you voted for Biden, voting D down the ticket isn’t a forgone conclusion. That doesn’t add up to Erickson being a favorite, but it definitely adds to the uncertainty and makes a GOP win more likely despite the districts partisanship.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this district is going to swing 18 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 7, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Oregon while holding up well elsewhere.

this poll is clearly junk for categorical reasons but also like

Sorry, I just don't believe this flipping until it actually does. The idea is that this county is going to swing 55 points and for what exact reason? Even Clinton won here by 60, it just seems strange that Democrats would randomly collapse in Starr County while holding up well elsewhere.

stop reading rachel bitecofer

Starr County is very, very different from suburban Oregon, and in hindsight, there were good reasons to think Democrats would collapse there. (It's clear that the Democratic Party brand was increasingly at odds with the socially conservative beliefs of border Hispanics and it's also clear that "Defund the Police" rhetoric was especially damaging in a place where law enforcement (either as local law enforcement or as border patrol) is a major source of employment.) This district is literally Salem and the suburbs of Portland. Unless Oregon voters are single issue crime voters I don't see why they'd collapse specifically there and hold up well in similar suburbs/small cities across the country.

If OR-6 and OR-5 flip it will be extremely easy to explain why. Oregonians clearly have a lot of dissatisfaction with the Democratic party. Kate Brown is the least popular governor in the country; that will affect every Democrat running for the office in the state, regardless of their relationship with her. Kotek is only going to get 42% or so at the top of the ticket. The party line will be broken for so many swing voters. If they're voting for Johnson, they'll take a closer look at congressional Republicans than they might have otherwise.

These two districts aren't that Democratic in the first place either. OR-5 is Clinton +3/Biden +9. OR-6 is Clinton +7/Biden+13. The West Coast is also more favorable to the GOP down ballot. When Oregonians are upset about progressive excesses and you nominate progressive candidates that will be easy to paint as soft on crime, inflationary over spenders, you can get a situation like this. I don't think the GOP wins these unless they have a good night, but these are the type of districts that flip regularly in midterm years.

Yeah, but Drazan, while leading, isn’t doing that well in her own right. She’s often leading with less than 40% of the vote, and that’s not enough to drag OR-5 and OR-6 across the line downballot.

Drazan won’t have coattails. It’s more that Kotek won’t have any. The critical factor will be how Johnson voters go in the house races. These voters are obviously not particularly loyal to the Democratic Party. If you’re a Johnson voter, even if you voted for Biden, voting D down the ticket isn’t a forgone conclusion. That doesn’t add up to Erickson being a favorite, but it definitely adds to the uncertainty and makes a GOP win more likely despite the districts partisanship.

Also OR-5 isnt that Democratic to begin with. The New OR-5 voted around 4.5 points more Democratic than the Nation in the 2020 Presidential Election but keep in mind Schrader underperformed Biden by 3 points and the old OR-5 was more Democratic than the current one. So a district that you can say is around 3-4 more points Democratic doesnt require a very pro GOP environment as thats not really much.

I would say its not even that much of a stretch to say which every party wins the House NPV will have the edge in this seat. Now OR-6 is a different scenario and yah winning that would require a very pro GOP environment. So I disagree with the idea that OR-5 and OR-6 should be lumped together as OR-5 is clearly less Democratic




https://www.politico.com/interactives/2022/congressional-redistricting-maps-by-state-and-district/oregon/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections#Oregon