Estonian general election: March 5, 2023

[DavidB.]

Estonia holds a general election on March 5th, electing the 101 members of the Riigikogu. The last one was in 2019 already.

Since then, there have been three governments. Free-market liberal, right-wing Reform had been the election winner in 2019, but the big surprise was the formation of a government consisting of the (centrist) Center Party popular with ethnic Russians, hard-right Estonian nationalist EKRE and the more moderate, liberal-conservative Isamaa. That government collapsed over a corruption scandal within Center in early 2021, following which a government between Reform and Center was formed - which then collapsed a year later following Russia's invasion in Ukraine, with Reform PM Kaja Kallas considering Center to be too close for comfort to the Kremlin line. Reform, who have surged in the polls due to the Kallas' government's strong support for Ukraine, now govern together with Isamaa and social democratic SDE.

Latest polls indicate a good result for Reform, around or slightly above their previous 28.8%, and again strong gains for EKRE, who are very pro-Ukrainian:

Reform: 28-31% (28.8% in 2019)
EKRE: 23-28% (17.8%)
Center: 14-20% (23.1%)
Estonia 200: 9-11% (new liberal party, 4.4% in 2019, below 5% threshold)
SDE: 6-11% (9.8%)
Isamaa: 6-8% (11.4%)

I would think the most probable coalition based on this result would be an expanded version of the current coalition, i.e. Reform-Estonia 200-SDE-Isamaa, but I've been surprised more often by the flexibility of Estonian parties to forge alliances.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So I guess this is the new thread...

I wanted to mention that there's now a new party called Parempoolsed (meaning "right-wingers") caused by a split within Isamaa, with one member of the Riigikogu. However it's literally polling below the perpetually hopeless Estonian Greens, so we can safely assume it will be a non-factor. EKRE is also probably past its peak and has declined in the polls since.

[Logical]

Bump. Early voting has begun. EKRE has indeed fallen from their polling highs back into the the 18-22% range once more. Coalition wise it appears that the gap between Reform + E200 + SDE and EKRE + Center + Isamaa remain small. Polling average from wiki.

[Mike88]

Record early voting:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1632083115609923589

Election is tomorrow.

[Mike88]

Voting is underway.

There are 966,025 registered voters and until 12pm local time, 52.4% of voters had cast a ballot, which includes early voting.

Polls close at 8pm, in about 6 hours.

[Diouf]

ERR says the e-vote will be announced in around three hours. It seems like that vote normally skews towards Reform Party

[DavidB.]

This is a bit more than 10% in and almost half of all the polling stations, which makes me think this part of the vote is probably overwhelmingly from rural areas. And probably also all "offline" e-day votes.

The last time, EKRE and Center overperformed on e-day while Reform won around 40% of the online vote.

EKRE: 29.2% (+11.4)
Reform: 18.7% (-10.2)
Center: 16.4% (-6.7)
E200: 9.6% (+5.2)
Isamaa: 9.5% (-1.9)
SDE: 9% (-0.8 )

[Diouf]

The Ida-Viru constituency paper vote is all counted, and it seems like both an independent (Mihhail Stallnuhin, an MP who was thrown out of the Center Party after describing the government as fascist for the recent removal of the Soviet tank monument in Narva), and an United Left Party candidate (Aivo Peterson) are doing so well, that they would be elected if only paper votes counted. They are at 19.6% and 19.5% respectively. It's a six seat constituency, so if my math is correct, they would need above 16,66% to get a seat. It's the Eastern-most constituency, and the only one with a majority of Russian-speaking voters, whom both of them seem to primarily appeal to. My educated guess would be that they both would appeal more to the kind of voters who vote on election day, but let's see.

[Logical]

Just like Latvia last year, it appears that the local Russian speaking population has shifted hard towards parties and candidates that take a more overt pro-Kremlin line.

[Estrella]

Aivo Peterson, a candidate to the National Assembly, went to Moscow and occupied Donetsk to look for the "guilt of Estonians"

Just a few days ago, according to Delf, Peterson was also in Moscow. He also participated in the popular Kremlin propaganda show "Solovjov Live" together with his party colleague Oleg Ivanov, where he announced that an uprising or guerrilla war should be organized in Estonia to change the situation. In the past, among other things, Peterson has spread the narrative that Russians are fighting for Estonians in Ukraine.

Settler colonialism and fascism – a love affair as old as time.

[Logical]

Aivo Peterson, a candidate to the National Assembly, went to Moscow and occupied Donetsk to look for the "guilt of Estonians"

Just a few days ago, according to Delf, Peterson was also in Moscow. He also participated in the popular Kremlin propaganda show "Solovjov Live" together with his party colleague Oleg Ivanov, where he announced that an uprising or guerrilla war should be organized in Estonia to change the situation. In the past, among other things, Peterson has spread the narrative that Russians are fighting for Estonians in Ukraine.

Settler colonialism and fascism – a love affair as old as time.

He also called Bucha staged. Real nice guy!

[skbl17]

The online votes have been counted and added to the totals.

- Reform: 31.9%; 38 seats (+4)
- EKRE: 15.8%; 17 seats (-2)
- Centre: 14.3%; 15 seats (-11)
- Eesti 200: 13.6%; 14 seats (new)
- SDE: 9.4%; 9 seats (-1)
- Isamaa: 8.3%; 8 seats (-4)

[Logical]

Internet votes released
Seats:
Reform 38 (+4)
EKRE 17 (-2)
Center 15 (-11)
E200 14 (+14)
SDE 9 (-1)
Isamaa 8 (-4)

Almost final results. Neither Stallnuhin nor Peterson made it.

[icc]

Reform + E200 with a majority on those numbers.

If that holds then a terrible result for Centre (half expected) but also for EKRE.

[Diouf]

Almost final results. Neither Stallnuhin nor Peterson made it.

15.5% and 14.9% respectively, so about 330 and 510 votes from getting seats. Ida-Viru has lost a seat since 2019, going from 7 to 6 seats. Had it still had 7 seats, the threshold would have been 14.3%, so they would have both won a seat.

[Diouf]

Kaja Kallas having her celebratory speech. It seems like she has smashed Savisaar's personal vote record from 2015. Back then he recived 25 057, while she is now on 31 102 personal votes.

[Lief 🗽]

A country with three separate liberal parties, each in parliament? Beautiful!!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

EKRE really underperformed, especially compared to its polling highs less than half a year ago. Not that I am complaining.

[Cassius]

A country with three separate liberal parties, each in parliament? Beautiful!!

Centre isn’t a particularly liberal party, it’s a fairly ideologically flexible party that mostly serves as a representative for Russian-speaking voters these days.

[MRCVzla]

Result as expected, Reform huge win and Kesk/Centre falling, liberal-progressive E200 finally mades it, but the fun (or the troubles?) now goes to EKRE, who's leader Martin Helme it's questioning the results and the e-vote system, says they will challenge in court the results and also says "All of you who have voted for Reform, you will get even more inflation, even more poverty, even more sexual perversions now!"

[warandwar]

Aivo Peterson, a candidate to the National Assembly, went to Moscow and occupied Donetsk to look for the "guilt of Estonians"

Just a few days ago, according to Delf, Peterson was also in Moscow. He also participated in the popular Kremlin propaganda show "Solovjov Live" together with his party colleague Oleg Ivanov, where he announced that an uprising or guerrilla war should be organized in Estonia to change the situation. In the past, among other things, Peterson has spread the narrative that Russians are fighting for Estonians in Ukraine.

Settler colonialism and fascism – a love affair as old as time.

He also called Bucha staged. Real nice guy!

nice mittins

[Storr]

A country with three separate liberal parties, each in parliament? Beautiful!!

Centre isn’t a particularly liberal party, it’s a fairly ideologically flexible party that mostly serves as a representative for Russian-speaking voters these days.

Not coincidentally, Centre won (with 25% of the vote) the most ethnically Russian electoral district:  No. 7 in the northeast of Estonia. No. 7 includes Ida-Viru County, which is 73% Russian.

The Coalition including Aivo Peterson's party (with EÜV) only managed to get 14.5% of the vote in electoral district No. 7.

The well known youtuber Bald and Bankrupt visited the area a few years ago. He had a interesting talk with an older Russian gentleman (starting at 10:28 in the video) in Sillamae who moved there from Kalinin Oblast (now Tver) in 1973. He talked about how when he arrived he was amazed that town's main store was stocked full of meat, caviar, and salmon, because back where he was from they had to wait in lines for 2 to 3 hours starting at 5am just to get bread.

On the more political front, he had a talk with a local man (starting at 6:22) who drove him from the nearest train station in Johvi to Sillamae who complained about Estonia's EU accession leading to the destruction of the Estonia's fishing economy and shuttering of the local knitting factory.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is Kallas going to try to form a government with just Reform and E200? That would be the barest possible majority (51-50) but if party discipline is strong maybe it's worth a try.

[CumbrianLefty]

Aivo Peterson, a candidate to the National Assembly, went to Moscow and occupied Donetsk to look for the "guilt of Estonians"

Just a few days ago, according to Delf, Peterson was also in Moscow. He also participated in the popular Kremlin propaganda show "Solovjov Live" together with his party colleague Oleg Ivanov, where he announced that an uprising or guerrilla war should be organized in Estonia to change the situation. In the past, among other things, Peterson has spread the narrative that Russians are fighting for Estonians in Ukraine.

He has rather an Estonian name as well.

[Logical]

Aivo Peterson, a candidate to the National Assembly, went to Moscow and occupied Donetsk to look for the "guilt of Estonians"

Just a few days ago, according to Delf, Peterson was also in Moscow. He also participated in the popular Kremlin propaganda show "Solovjov Live" together with his party colleague Oleg Ivanov, where he announced that an uprising or guerrilla war should be organized in Estonia to change the situation. In the past, among other things, Peterson has spread the narrative that Russians are fighting for Estonians in Ukraine.

He has rather an Estonian name as well.

His birth name was Krolov