Georgia Dem Gerrymander

[Spectator]

With the chances of a Democrat trifecta in Georgia by the conclusion of the 2030 elections pretty high, I figured it would be worth looking into to see what an optimal map would look like. Below is a map with 9 solid Democrat seats, 4 solid Republican seats, and 1 swing seat that is flying left at a rapid pace. Worth noting that all Democrat seats in this seat experienced sharp swings to the left from 2016 to 2020, including even Sanford Bishop's successor district. The 10th, which is the only swing seat on here, went for Trump by 6% in 2016, then for Kemp by 1% in 2018, then for Biden by 4% in 2020. Warnock and Ossoff both won it as well.

[Sol]

Independent of VRA concerns, I'd have to think that the Democratic establishment in Southern Fulton and DeKalb would be unhappy with this map, given that it cracks them apart and weakens their influence.

[Spectator]

Independent of VRA concerns, I'd have to think that the Democratic establishment in Southern Fulton and DeKalb would be unhappy with this map, given that it cracks them apart and weakens their influence.

District 4 would be whoever they choose as the nominee. District 10 is the only one that cuts into south Fulton in my map, and honestly, it might not even be necessary at the end of the decade to do that if Forsyth County keeps shifting left.

VRA concerns wouldn't be an issue, I don't think. Black Democrats could nominate whoever the hell they want in 9 of these seats and win.

[Skill and Chance]

I have to think GA R's see the writing on the wall and have the sense to ask for a commission early enough that it won't look too desperate.  VA shows that enough Dems will likely go along with it to get one on the ballot. 

Anyway, I don't think the GA state senate is a sure thing for Dems at all in 2030.  If they have the LG it gets considerably easier, though.

[Schiff for Senate]

With the chances of a Democrat trifecta in Georgia by the conclusion of the 2030 elections pretty high, I figured it would be worth looking into to see what an optimal map would look like. Below is a map with 9 solid Democrat seats, 4 solid Republican seats, and 1 swing seat that is flying left at a rapid pace. Worth noting that all Democrat seats in this seat experienced sharp swings to the left from 2016 to 2020, including even Sanford Bishop's successor district. The 10th, which is the only swing seat on here, went for Trump by 6% in 2016, then for Kemp by 1% in 2018, then for Biden by 4% in 2020. Warnock and Ossoff both won it as well.

Could you redraw it in such a way that MTG's district (her hometown of Rome, at least) gets put into a safe D district? That way she'd be forced into retirement or have to be put in a primary against another GOPer, which would be very satisfying. I've done this myself, and of course, the key is to take Rome and surrounding areas, and then stretch the district southeast to take in ultra-blue parts of the Atlanta area.

In your map, it might mess around with the final configurations a bit, but you should do it. You should split MTG's GA14 district up, and put her hometown in a safe blue district, and the rest of the seat in a safe R district (Andrew Clyde's GA09) so she either has to challenge him or retire.

EDIT: https://districtr.org/plan/143108. This is kind of what I mean. Rome and surrounding areas are put into a Clinton+7 district that most likely went for Biden by 10 points if not more (though I might be wrong since it's not so much suburban as a mixture of deep-blue urban areas and more solidly Republican - and not particularly left-trending - exurbs and rurals, so it may not have had much of a D trend at all). The rest of her district, more or less, is in GA09 - which is similar to the IRL GA09 and probably has an incumbent Republican in 2030 (Andrew Clyde, or maybe he runs for something else and it's his successor).

[Sol]

Gerrymandering out MTG is probably not worth the wasted Democratic votes--she represents one of the most Republican regions of the country, so to do it effectively you have to waste a lot of Democratic votes which could be used more effectively elsewhere.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wouldn't it be pretty likely GA gains a House seat in 2030?

[Adam Griffin]

Gerrymandering out MTG is probably not worth the wasted Democratic votes--she represents one of the most Republican regions of the country, so to do it effectively you have to waste a lot of Democratic votes which could be used more effectively elsewhere.

Not to mention she is/was a lifelong Forsyth-Fulton-Cobb County resident - even at the point she declared for the district. She only bought property in the district after announcing her candidacy. She'd just carpetbag like both she & her Yankee ancestors did prior to another safe R district (or continue running in the NW GA one).

[Adam Griffin]

Topic-wise, it's not that you can't draw 10 (or more) Biden-leaning districts and the like in GA, but if you want to balance VRA concerns - especially those that will exist in the metro ca. 2031 assuming it isn't struck down - while balancing partisan stability, then going for a 9D, 5R map is probably the best bet. Relatively compact D districts, and carving the 5 R districts out of whatever's left while trying to make at least 2 or 3 make some sense.

4 majority-black VAP metro districts & a VRA-compatible SW GA district; 7 districts where Biden won by double digits & 2 where Biden won by 4-5 points (both of which are drifting leftward, both of which Abrams won & even Clinton won the coastal district). The 5 R districts are all Trump 67-74%:

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c611bc37-cbeb-4dd2-925a-526b82a939bd

[MillennialModerate]

With the chances of a Democrat trifecta in Georgia by the conclusion of the 2030 elections pretty high

This is an extreme exaggeration.

Yes demographic shifts have turned Georgia into Virginia-lite. But the idea that even with a gerrymandered map the Dems are highly likely to turn Georgia in a trifecta? Look at Pennsylvania - Democrats are the majority in that state and they haven’t had the PA Senate since 93, the PA HOR since ‘10. Many other examples of that.

In 2012 Georgia was a R+8, in 2016 it was R+5, 2020 it was D+0.23 but I think the left trend is going to slow somewhat… 2024 it’ll be a tossup still. By 2028 maybe D+3 or so. That doesn’t make it territory for a sure fire trifecta especially with a gerrymander

[OBD]

From my experience, is it not possible to drag the black seats pretty deep into Republican territory, opening up room for a 10-4 or even 11-3? Pretty simple to create 3-4 50% (or near 50%) Black VAP seats in this fashion that are far less packed than currently.

EDIT: Actually looks like I overestimated the potency of this strategy (as it also results in a 9-5 usually) but taken to the extreme it can go to 11-3, as seen here

[Skill and Chance]

From my experience, is it not possible to drag the black seats pretty deep into Republican territory, opening up room for a 10-4 or even 11-3? Pretty simple to create 3-4 50% (or near 50%) Black VAP seats in this fashion that are far less packed than currently.

EDIT: Actually looks like I overestimated the potency of this strategy (as it also results in a 9-5 usually) but taken to the extreme it can go to 11-3, as seen here

That might be reasonably possible to generate a non-MD-03 looking safe 10D/4R in 2031, but it isn't today. 

[Spectator]

From my experience, is it not possible to drag the black seats pretty deep into Republican territory, opening up room for a 10-4 or even 11-3? Pretty simple to create 3-4 50% (or near 50%) Black VAP seats in this fashion that are far less packed than currently.

EDIT: Actually looks like I overestimated the potency of this strategy (as it also results in a 9-5 usually) but taken to the extreme it can go to 11-3, as seen here

That might be reasonably possible to generate a non-MD-03 looking safe 10D/4R in 2031, but it isn't today. 

I think my map would probably be 10 safe D seats in 2031. I don’t think Biden maxed out in Forsyth County/north Fulton. If Democrats get up to 40% of the vote in Forsyth County, my 10th seat goes to a greater than 10% Dem margin on its own.

[Devils30]

Why do that when you could just go all out

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::eb07e40b-996a-4f60-b2bf-32f474a65ae7

[Adam Griffin]

Amending this again: for a 2030 map, might as well go for the gold. Assuming existing patterns do not reverse substantially, this will be a reliable 10-4 map by 2032 with 3 currently black-majority VAP districts (51.4%, 51.5% & 55.8%; 6, 5 & 7) and 2 black-plurality VAP districts (43.0% & 47.7%; 8 & 12). Districts 2, 4, 10 & 11 are all currently majority-white VAP.

2020-P Competitive Races:
CD-2: Biden +0.7
CD-4: Trump +1.0
CD-10: Biden +0.2
CD-11: Biden +7.2

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::2313d7ba-10ac-4e61-baaf-688743f47ef4

[patzer]

Borders that ugly won’t fly nowadays. Not to mention you want to keep incumbents happy.

You’d probably be looking at some more specific changes. Ways to alter the current map without drastic border redrawing:...

The 3rd and 13th. Give the Fulton bit of the 13th to the 3rd in return for moving the more eastern counties from the 3rd into the 13th, and you have two safe D districts which should be black plurality.

You probably want to make the 2nd safer by expanding in the Columbus/Macon suburbs in return for losing the increasingly Republican southern bit to the 8th.

With the 1st/12th situation, if Augusta is blue enough by 2030 to be able to make a reasonably safe Dem seat centered there, do that while leaving a tilt R 1st. If not you’d have to make an Augusta-to-Savannah seat with the leftovers in the other. Ugly but not many other options.

For the 10th: you’ll probably be able to flip it Dem by including all of Newton/Rockdale (shifting the 4th and 5th slightly west by making the former include most of DeKalb, probably pushing the 5th into Cobb)

The 14th and 9th can be the two northern Georgia vote sinks, letting you bring the 6th and 11th into the Atlanta metro enough to flip them Dem.

If there’s a new 15th district, that would be perfect to use to make a Hispanic opportunity one, in the most Hispanic bits of Gwinnett and Hall. If not, you could maybe instead bring the 9th in to do that, letting the 14th be a single northern Georgia vote sink, but I think even in 2030 the numbers would be very tight for that unless the northern Atlanta suburbs continue to trend left very rapidly. As for other minority access seats, the 6th could end up becoming an Asian one naturally, and the 10th and the Augusta one would probably be plurality black.

So yeah, ultimately there will be ways to make the map more Dem favourable without a wholesale ripping apart of the current map.

[Torie]

House members don't need to live in their districts, as long as they live in the state, and NYS has just demonstrated that living in the CD does not mean much. The Pub elected in NY-19 does not live in the district, nor do the incumbents in NY-20 and NY-24. Living in the district is just so yesterday. So drawing MTG's home out her district won't matter a wit. It might just add to her glamour.

[Adam Griffin]

Also worth noting that MTG carpetbagged into the 14th to run in the first place - literally announcing her candidacy before she relocated - so she obviously has no issue (nor would have any problem) in doing so again.