PA SEN Emerson Fetterman+2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2022-fettermans-lead-shrinks-in-us-senate-race-shapiros-lead-expands-for-governors-seat/

FETTERMAN 45
Oz 43
Someone else 5
Undecided 8

This isn't new TRAFALGAR has it 2 as well

[Person Man]

It’s as 2 point improvement for Ass.

[Spectator]

Oofda

[wbrocks67]

All of these 45-43 or 45-42 polls are going to drive me crazy, the amount of undecideds/someone else should not be growing here [8% last time, now 13% this time]

Independents will be key too. Reason for some of these varying polls is them as well - Marist had Fetterman leading by something like 20, Fox and/or F&M had him up by at least 10 I think.

This one has Oz up by 12 (46-34)

Also odd that Emerson does favorability in every poll but they didn't do it here.

[MT Treasurer]

Strongly suspect this will become part of a national trend, and it’s also why I haven’t written off Masters yet.

[Person Man]

Strongly suspect this will become part of a national trend, and it’s also why I haven’t written off Masters yet.

The question could be why then. Could Democrats be bad at campaigning, be seen as more change since passing their agenda, or are people just becoming more interested in tax cuts and abortion bans?

[Calthrina950]

Fetterman is still leading, but PA-SEN has tightened considerably in recent weeks. Oz is consolidating the Republican base and independents are moving his way.

[wbrocks67]

Strongly suspect this will become part of a national trend, and it’s also why I haven’t written off Masters yet.

Then why is Hassan still getting +9, Warnock +5, and Kelly keeping his 5-7% margin?

Bottom line is in WI and PA especially, the GOP is going all out in the ad wars which is likely having an effect.

Problem for Oz however is the margin shrunk here, but he *also* dropped - to 43% from 44%. Oz can't seem to get out of this 41-44% range.

Fetterman is usually 45-50, depending on how much people are pushed (48 in Fox, 47 in F&M, 51 in Marist, etc.)

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman is still leading, but PA-SEN has tightened considerably in recent weeks. Oz is consolidating the Republican base and independents are moving his way.

Marist, F&M, and Fox all have Fetterman leading with Independents. This is an outlier. If we're going to push a narrative, let's at least have it based in facts.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Strongly suspect this will become part of a national trend, and it’s also why I haven’t written off Masters yet.

The question could be why then. Could Democrats be bad at campaigning, be seen as more change since passing their agenda, or are people just becoming more interested in tax cuts and abortion bans?

Voters have incredibly short memories.

[HidingCommentary]

Strongly suspect this will become part of a national trend, and it’s also why I haven’t written off Masters yet.

The question could be why then. Could Democrats be bad at campaigning, be seen as more change since passing their agenda, or are people just becoming more interested in tax cuts and abortion bans?

Republicans finally waking up?

If it really is a neutral environment like the generic ballot polls say, states like Pennsylvania are going to be single point races regardless.

[HidingCommentary]

If Fetterman really is up about +5, a +2 poll seems perfectly reasonable.

[Calthrina950]

Fetterman is still leading, but PA-SEN has tightened considerably in recent weeks. Oz is consolidating the Republican base and independents are moving his way.

Marist, F&M, and Fox all have Fetterman leading with Independents. This is an outlier. If we're going to push a narrative, let's at least have it based in facts.

I didn't say that Oz was leading with independents. I said that he's gaining ground with them. Mind you, I still think Fetterman is going to win, but an Oz victory cannot be ruled out at this point.

[Senator Incitatus]

Need to strongly remind users here that most people don't tune into politics until around Labor Day (sometimes as a hard personal rule) and that the Fetterman campaign has been a disaster since then. This is a toss-up.

[Spectator]

Fetterman is still leading, but PA-SEN has tightened considerably in recent weeks. Oz is consolidating the Republican base and independents are moving his way.

Marist, F&M, and Fox all have Fetterman leading with Independents. This is an outlier. If we're going to push a narrative, let's at least have it based in facts.

Do you ever get tired of cherry picking? It has to be pretty labor intensive after a while.

[HidingCommentary]

Need to strongly remind users here that most people don't tune into politics until around Labor Day (sometimes as a hard personal rule) and that the Fetterman campaign has been a disaster since then. This is a toss-up.

Has it? Seems like Oz has stepped up his game finally but Fetterman hasn't had any huge missteps of note.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Need to strongly remind users here that most people don't tune into politics until around Labor Day (sometimes as a hard personal rule) and that the Fetterman campaign has been a disaster since then. This is a toss-up.

How so? Not being Snarky just wanted some updates. Is he still not on the airwaves?

[Senator Incitatus]

Need to strongly remind users here that most people don't tune into politics until around Labor Day (sometimes as a hard personal rule) and that the Fetterman campaign has been a disaster since then. This is a toss-up.

Has it? Seems like Oz has stepped up his game finally but Fetterman hasn't had any huge missteps of note.

I also think the Oz campaign has righted the ship and is doing a bang-up job, but the story of the past few weeks has been Fetterman dodging media and haggling over debates, failing to answer Oz's attacks, and one of his own biggest attacks ("Oz owns multiple properties") blowing up in his face.

[Calthrina950]

Need to strongly remind users here that most people don't tune into politics until around Labor Day (sometimes as a hard personal rule) and that the Fetterman campaign has been a disaster since then. This is a toss-up.

Has it? Seems like Oz has stepped up his game finally but Fetterman hasn't had any huge missteps of note.

I also think the Oz campaign has righted the ship and is doing a bang-up job, but the story of the past few weeks has been Fetterman dodging media and haggling over debates, failing to answer Oz's attacks, and one of his own biggest attacks ("Oz owns multiple properties") blowing up in his face.

How has this backfired on Fetterman? I haven't heard anything more about this.

[Senator Incitatus]

Need to strongly remind users here that most people don't tune into politics until around Labor Day (sometimes as a hard personal rule) and that the Fetterman campaign has been a disaster since then. This is a toss-up.

Has it? Seems like Oz has stepped up his game finally but Fetterman hasn't had any huge missteps of note.

I also think the Oz campaign has righted the ship and is doing a bang-up job, but the story of the past few weeks has been Fetterman dodging media and haggling over debates, failing to answer Oz's attacks, and one of his own biggest attacks ("Oz owns multiple properties") blowing up in his face.

How has this backfired on Fetterman? I haven't heard anything more about this.

Maybe it didn't hit the non-partisan press, though I remembered a Philadelphia station covering it—Fetterman himself owns several properties in Braddock which he failed to report on campaign disclosure forms. Republicans have made hay of this and I think it has shored up Oz with the base, which was his main challenge, and weakened Fetterman with independents. In any case, I haven't heard the attack as frequently in the past three weeks.

It would really be a non-issue if the Fetterman campaign had just stuck to calling Oz an out-of-touch rich guy, which he is, but they went weirdly specific with their "normal people don't have investment properties" line.

[HidingCommentary]

Need to strongly remind users here that most people don't tune into politics until around Labor Day (sometimes as a hard personal rule) and that the Fetterman campaign has been a disaster since then. This is a toss-up.

Has it? Seems like Oz has stepped up his game finally but Fetterman hasn't had any huge missteps of note.

I also think the Oz campaign has righted the ship and is doing a bang-up job, but the story of the past few weeks has been Fetterman dodging media and haggling over debates, failing to answer Oz's attacks, and one of his own biggest attacks ("Oz owns multiple properties") blowing up in his face.

Not sure I agree that that's been the story of the past few weeks but we obviously follow different media circles.

[Pollster]

The question could be why then.

Spending.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Fetterman needs to go hard on the abortion issue, like, yesterday.

I still think he pulls this out, though. I hope he sends Shapiro a big thank-you basket afterwards.

[HidingCommentary]

Also interesting that Biden is polling better in these swing states than nationally. In Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, his approval has been in the negative single digits. You'd think he'd be close to near even nationally if that were the case. Wouldn't be surprised if we get an exit poll shock like in 2020 where Trump had net even(or close to it) approval. Also could be the opposite and polling is over estimating Biden's numbers but I'd rather not think too hard on that reality.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's moving in the wrong direction, I'm starting to believe. Sure, Fetterman was never going to win by double digits or even high single digits, but the trendline starts to concern me. I have a feeling we're soon going to see at least a few polls with a slight Oz lead.