PA-SEN (F&M College): Fetterman +4

[wbrocks67]

Original ballot:
Fetterman (D) 42%
Oz (R) 37%
Gerhardt (L) 2%
Someone else 4%
Undecided 13%

With leaners:
Fetterman (D) 45%
Oz (R) 42%
Someone else 8%
Undecided 5%

LV:
Fetterman (D) 47%
Oz (R) 43%

Fetterman fav: 40/46 (-6)
Oz fav: 34/53 (-19)

Best understands the concerns of Pennsylvanians?
51% Fetterman, 29% Oz

Is closest to your views on social issues, such as gay marriage and abortion?
44% Fetterman, 33% Oz

Will change gov’t policies in a way that will improve your economic situation?
39% Oz, 32% Fetterman

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I-bWspYxBv4iiwV3SUPSkq8pS2DUw8VR/view

[BenjiG98]

While the race has tightened, I still think Fetterman pulls it off. Oz can't seem to break the 44-45% barrier while Fetterman easily hits the high 40s and crosses over 50 on occasion too. Of course, you can argue that undecideds will put Oz over the line, but I don't see that happening right now. Shame we're still 39 days away.

[wbrocks67]

Their last poll (with leaners) had Fetterman up by 9, 45-36. As expected, Oz is consolidating a lot of that GOP vote that wasn't there for him a few months ago.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Still an uphill battle for Oz with those awful favorabilities and not being “real Pennsylvania”, but it is starting to look like some momentum. This is no worse than seat 50 or 51 for R’s at this point. Someone had a good point that moderates could view Oz as a phony but in a harmless way and might pick him if they are fed up enough with Biden. Masters on the other hand comes across as creepy and like he’s hiding something.

[Boobs]

Fetterman stuck at 45% is the worrying thing, and I doubt that 8% will vote for “someone else” in the end.

[kwabbit]

Was Fetterman +9 in August. Definitely some Ozmentum happening. He seems to have buckled down and is campaigning seriously. The summer was disastrous, but Oz is a very intelligent man and is vastly more resourceful than someone like Herschel Walker. Definitely feeling like he has a better shot than Walker at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem with the polls is that there aren't any debates going on so voters have to make their minds up on TV ads

[Person Man]

Still an uphill battle for Oz with those awful favorabilities and not being “real Pennsylvania”, but it is starting to look like some momentum. This is no worse than seat 50 or 51 for R’s at this point. Someone had a good point that moderates could view Oz as a phony but in a harmless way and might pick him if they are fed up enough with Biden. Masters on the other hand comes across as creepy and like he’s hiding something.

I would say he's behind Laxalt and just after Masters and Walker.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Worrying for Fetterman that he can't hit 50 here, but Oz is in an even worse place than he is.

[wbrocks67]

Something to note - this is now the umpteenth poll I've seen to have Fetterman winning Whites. (he usually wins them by about 2-4 in most I've seen). That is *unprecedented* for PA. Biden lost them by 15 in 2020 and even Casey lost them by 1 in 2018 while winning 13% statewide.

If Fetterman even makes it close among Whites, then that's a huge deal for him.

[wbrocks67]

Will add to OP, there is a likely voter model in here as well and that's Fetterman +4, 47-43.

Seems like we're converging on a 4-5% race here

[kwabbit]

Something to note - this is now the umpteenth poll I've seen to have Fetterman winning Whites. (he usually wins them by about 2-4 in most I've seen). That is *unprecedented* for PA. Biden lost them by 15 in 2020 and even Casey lost them by 1 in 2018 while winning 13% statewide.

If Fetterman even makes it close among Whites, then that's a huge deal for him.

That should scare you more than encourage you. A Fetterman victory will be won through strong performances in Allegheny and Erie, but the polling industry has had its most acute problems with non educated Whites.

Most polls had Biden doing markedly better than Clinton among that demographic ,and that was what was fueling his huge polling leads in the Midwest. In the end, he only marginally overperformed Clinton, making all of his gains with educated Whites

If the polls show Fetterman blowing out Oz with educated Whites, improving over Biden, then that is a reason to be optimistic.

[wbrocks67]

Something to note - this is now the umpteenth poll I've seen to have Fetterman winning Whites. (he usually wins them by about 2-4 in most I've seen). That is *unprecedented* for PA. Biden lost them by 15 in 2020 and even Casey lost them by 1 in 2018 while winning 13% statewide.

If Fetterman even makes it close among Whites, then that's a huge deal for him.

That should scare you more than encourage you. A Fetterman victory will be won through strong performances in Allegheny and Erie, but the polling industry has had its most acute problems with non educated Whites.

Most polls had Biden doing markedly better than Clinton among that demographic ,and that was what was fueling his huge polling leads in the Midwest. In the end, he only marginally overperformed Clinton, making all of his gains with educated Whites

If the polls show Fetterman blowing out Oz with educated Whites, improving over Biden, then that is a reason to be optimistic.

Sure, but there's also more reason to believe that Fetterman *is* connecting with some of the non-college whites against Oz.

Fetterman is +20 with college+ whites here, on par with Casey (+22 in 2018) and better than Biden (+9 in 2020)

The reason Fetterman is not more ahead is the D+11 among non-whites (50-39), versus D+65 (81-16) in 2018 and D+67 (82-15) in 2020. But I suspect that's more of a low sample issue.

With that in tact, even if Fetterman did half as well among non-whites in reality as Casey and Biden did, that would still add an extra few % to his total.

[Person Man]

Something to note - this is now the umpteenth poll I've seen to have Fetterman winning Whites. (he usually wins them by about 2-4 in most I've seen). That is *unprecedented* for PA. Biden lost them by 15 in 2020 and even Casey lost them by 1 in 2018 while winning 13% statewide.

If Fetterman even makes it close among Whites, then that's a huge deal for him.

That should scare you more than encourage you. A Fetterman victory will be won through strong performances in Allegheny and Erie, but the polling industry has had its most acute problems with non educated Whites.

Most polls had Biden doing markedly better than Clinton among that demographic ,and that was what was fueling his huge polling leads in the Midwest. In the end, he only marginally overperformed Clinton, making all of his gains with educated Whites

If the polls show Fetterman blowing out Oz with educated Whites, improving over Biden, then that is a reason to be optimistic.

Sure, but there's also more reason to believe that Fetterman *is* connecting with some of the non-college whites against Oz.

Fetterman is +20 with college+ whites here, on par with Casey (+22 in 2018) and better than Biden (+9 in 2020)

The reason Fetterman is not more ahead is the D+11 among non-whites (50-39), versus D+65 (81-16) in 2018 and D+67 (82-15) in 2020. But I suspect that's more of a low sample issue.

With that in tact, even if Fetterman did half as well among non-whites in reality as Casey and Biden did, that would still add an extra few % to his total.

So a lot of undecideds are probably going to be Democrats unless this election marks the end of Democrats being able to rely on the Minority vote.

[wbrocks67]

Something to note - this is now the umpteenth poll I've seen to have Fetterman winning Whites. (he usually wins them by about 2-4 in most I've seen). That is *unprecedented* for PA. Biden lost them by 15 in 2020 and even Casey lost them by 1 in 2018 while winning 13% statewide.

If Fetterman even makes it close among Whites, then that's a huge deal for him.

That should scare you more than encourage you. A Fetterman victory will be won through strong performances in Allegheny and Erie, but the polling industry has had its most acute problems with non educated Whites.

Most polls had Biden doing markedly better than Clinton among that demographic ,and that was what was fueling his huge polling leads in the Midwest. In the end, he only marginally overperformed Clinton, making all of his gains with educated Whites

If the polls show Fetterman blowing out Oz with educated Whites, improving over Biden, then that is a reason to be optimistic.

Sure, but there's also more reason to believe that Fetterman *is* connecting with some of the non-college whites against Oz.

Fetterman is +20 with college+ whites here, on par with Casey (+22 in 2018) and better than Biden (+9 in 2020)

The reason Fetterman is not more ahead is the D+11 among non-whites (50-39), versus D+65 (81-16) in 2018 and D+67 (82-15) in 2020. But I suspect that's more of a low sample issue.

With that in tact, even if Fetterman did half as well among non-whites in reality as Casey and Biden did, that would still add an extra few % to his total.

So a lot of undecideds are probably going to be Democrats unless this election marks the end of Democrats being able to rely on the Minority vote.

Yeah, even Shapiro is only at 60-30 among non-whites, which at +30 would still be less than half of Casey and Biden's performances, which seems unlikely. PA did not see the same shift among voters of color as some other places did in 2020.

[kwabbit]

Something to note - this is now the umpteenth poll I've seen to have Fetterman winning Whites. (he usually wins them by about 2-4 in most I've seen). That is *unprecedented* for PA. Biden lost them by 15 in 2020 and even Casey lost them by 1 in 2018 while winning 13% statewide.

If Fetterman even makes it close among Whites, then that's a huge deal for him.

That should scare you more than encourage you. A Fetterman victory will be won through strong performances in Allegheny and Erie, but the polling industry has had its most acute problems with non educated Whites.

Most polls had Biden doing markedly better than Clinton among that demographic ,and that was what was fueling his huge polling leads in the Midwest. In the end, he only marginally overperformed Clinton, making all of his gains with educated Whites

If the polls show Fetterman blowing out Oz with educated Whites, improving over Biden, then that is a reason to be optimistic.

Sure, but there's also more reason to believe that Fetterman *is* connecting with some of the non-college whites against Oz.

Fetterman is +20 with college+ whites here, on par with Casey (+22 in 2018) and better than Biden (+9 in 2020)

The reason Fetterman is not more ahead is the D+11 among non-whites (50-39), versus D+65 (81-16) in 2018 and D+67 (82-15) in 2020. But I suspect that's more of a low sample issue.

With that in tact, even if Fetterman did half as well among non-whites in reality as Casey and Biden did, that would still add an extra few % to his total.

Fetterman’s probably doing worse among uneducated Whites and better with minorities than the poll shows. It’s not as if the uneducated Whites result is reliable but the minority result can be adjusted more Democratic.

The college educated result is unambiguously good for Fetterman though. Poling is much more reliable with that demographic.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems like Oz is somewhat catching up, especially consolidation of GOP voters that were reluctant about him back in summer. That's something I always expected and Fetterman wining by more than 2-3 pts. would be significant. That said, let's not get overconfident, despite the fact Fetterman remains a clear favorite.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is gonna be 1 debate and I told you guys relax Early voting is underway, if a David slightly behind or slightly AHEAD we can still win it it's VBM Pat Ryan came back from 8 pts in blue NY

[wbrocks67]

Seems like Oz is somewhat catching up, especially consolidation of GOP voters that were reluctant about him back in summer. That's something I always expected and Fetterman wining by more than 2-3 pts. would be significant. That said, let's not get overconfident, despite the fact Fetterman remains a clear favorite.

Yep, while Oz remains deeply unpopular, Fetterman's favorability dipped in this poll from the last one. So the negative attacks have had a bit of an affect. An outlier though since this is the first I've seen him in net negative territory.

[Mr.Phips]

This is the race that would end the chances of a Dem senate majority if they lost it.

[Senator Incitatus]

OZMENTUM is real.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the race that would end the chances of a Dem senate majority if they lost it.

The D's have way more pickup chances than WI and PA users act like since are behind in WI we are gonna lose everything, PA, plus NC and OH will end R chances in the Senate aside from WI, without McCormick this seat is lost to D, Oz hasn't lead in a single poll

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

OZMENTUM is real.

The #Populist backing of a multimillionaire with ten houses sure is something.

[Lief 🗽]

Tilt R at this point. These are just not the kind of polling numbers that result in a D victory.

[Eraserhead]

I'm starting to see some signs of Republicans bouncing back and beginning to worry about this race just a bit.