WI-SEN (PPP): tied

[wbrocks67]

Barnes (D) 47%
Johnson (R) 47%
Undecided 6%

Johnson fav: 41/50 (-9)
Barnes fav: 39/47 (-8)

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Wisconsin92822Poll.pdf

[2016]

Johnson is going to win this with Barnes now having the same Favorables/Unfavorables as him.

The Attacks against Barnes over the last few weeks seems to have worked.

Even PPP can't show a Barnes lead.

[SnowLabrador]

ELI5 why Barnes is such a terrible candidate. He probably won't win, but this would be a hard race for any Democrat.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I get the D pollsters mixed up. D4P, not this one, is the one that makes D internals but has been polling like an R internal? Great poll if true.

-65+ voters apparently don’t like Barnes or Johnson, and GCB R’s are outrunning Johnson (probably both a good and bad sign for him).


-Johnson’s job approval is slightly higher than his favorability. These may be “nice” republicans who don’t like him personally but think he’s fine otherwise.

-Democrats and non-whites are supporting Johnson a little bit higher than R GCB. Could be a few people who don’t like Biden/current brand of democrats but don’t want to call themselves regular republicans.

[Spectator]

Johnson is going to win this with Barnes now having the same Favorables/Unfavorables as him.

The Attacks against Barnes over the last few weeks seems to have worked.

Even PPP can't show a Barnes lead.

I told wbrocks weeks ago that Barnes wasn’t the appropriate candidate to run as a contrast to Johnson. It’s super easy to paint Barnes as an extremist based on his past comments and association with Ilhan Omar and the Squad.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

WI and NV always seem to tilt a little more R based on the results, while AZ and NC tend to go a little more D. Most of these toss-up polls will likely fall in the usual direction, especially with Johnson having an incumbency edge.

[wbrocks67]

Johnson is going to win this with Barnes now having the same Favorables/Unfavorables as him.

The Attacks against Barnes over the last few weeks seems to have worked.

Even PPP can't show a Barnes lead.

I told wbrocks weeks ago that Barnes wasn’t the appropriate candidate to run as a contrast to Johnson. It’s super easy to paint Barnes as an extremist based on his past comments and association with Ilhan Omar and the Squad.

I disagree; he's literally the Lt. Gov of the state, under Evers. 4 years of that and I don't think it's *that* easy to say he's some random extremist.

The way this forum reacts to tied polls in this race is wild.

[MT Treasurer]

(Strong) Lean R race remains (strong) Lean R. Barnes finishing at 47% is pretty believable, as is the Evers %.

[Spectator]

Johnson is going to win this with Barnes now having the same Favorables/Unfavorables as him.

The Attacks against Barnes over the last few weeks seems to have worked.

Even PPP can't show a Barnes lead.

I told wbrocks weeks ago that Barnes wasn’t the appropriate candidate to run as a contrast to Johnson. It’s super easy to paint Barnes as an extremist based on his past comments and association with Ilhan Omar and the Squad.

I disagree; he's literally the Lt. Gov of the state, under Evers. 4 years of that and I don't think it's *that* easy to say he's some random extremist.

The way this forum reacts to tied polls in this race is wild.

He didn’t win that race independently though, that was Evers’s win in his own right. Barnes has never run a real race in a competitive general

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

WI and NV always seem to tilt a little more R based on the results, while AZ and NC tend to go a little more D. Most of these toss-up polls will likely fall in the usual direction, especially with Johnson having an incumbency edge.

Isn't the conventional wisdom that undecided voters break for the challenger?

[GeorgiaModerate]

WI and NV always seem to tilt a little more R based on the results, while AZ and NC tend to go a little more D. Most of these toss-up polls will likely fall in the usual direction, especially with Johnson having an incumbency edge.

Isn't the conventional wisdom that undecided voters break for the challenger?

Yes, conditioned on (a) the general partisan lean of the state (e.g. in Massachusetts you'd expect undecideds to break D, in Alabama R), and (b) whether the incumbent is popular (if they are, they're more likely to get the benefit of the doubt).

[Ferguson97]

FYI PPP was spot on in 2018: their polls showed Baldwin+10 and Baldwin+12, final results were Baldwin+11

[Ferguson97]

Anyway the idea that Arizona is Lean D and Wisconsin is Lean R is extremely silly considering that the partisan leans of the two states are nearly identical and polling consistently shows Kelly having a decent lead while polling shows Wisconsin in a dead heat. I get that people have been burned by a lot of Wisconsin polling in the past, but it was fairly accurate in 2018 and there's nothing wrong with rating the race 'Tilt R'.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea Johnson was never ahead

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Not betting on winning this race, but would be nice if Barnes could pull it off.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2022-09-27

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, I: 0%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details