Am I the only one seeing a pattern here?
of just Maine or GOP governor candidates across the board?
I feel like Dobbs was likely the final nail in the coffin for most.
It is starting to seem like the gubernatorial map is narrowing rapidly for Republicans. As of now, there are only five states I see as potential or likely Republican pickups at the gubernatorial level: Kansas, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, and Wisconsin. And Democrats are probably favored in New Mexico and have a 50/50 shot of winning the other four states. Illinois, Minnesota, and Maine are completely off the board for Republicans, and Michigan and Pennsylvania appear to be as well.
I don't know if it's due to the significant shift in the political climate or the candidates themselves, but many Democratic incumbents seem to have been underestimated this year. And I'll cop to being one of those who initially thought that Evers, Kelly, and Whitmer would be goners while Mills and Walz would barely hang on, and others like Pritzker would significantly under-perform a la Murphy last year. But this does not seem to be the case. And maybe it was due to expectations being set by 2021 PTSD.
