ME GOV UNH MILLS +14
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Author Topic: ME GOV UNH MILLS +14  (Read 464 times)
Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« on: September 27, 2022, 10:52:09 AM »

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1574785160398209025?t=IMrrPDALinUFMG6tdsi-ZQ&s=19

GOV MILLS 53
LePage 39
Hunkler 1%
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2022, 10:55:24 AM »

Yup, it looks like LePage is crashing and burning. I thought this could be a competitive race, but as we've gotten numerous polls out of ME lately, it really doesn't look like. Even if the polls are off a few points, LePage isn't coming back. And that's a really good news.

Likely D.
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Person Man
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2022, 10:56:32 AM »

Am I the only one seeing a pattern here?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2022, 11:49:31 AM »

Am I the only one seeing a pattern here?

of just Maine or GOP governor candidates across the board?

I feel like Dobbs was likely the final nail in the coffin for most.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2022, 12:02:09 PM »

I was just in Maine and saw a ton of signs for various Republican candidates and a lot fewer for Democratic candidates, but this may just have been the Republicans staking out US-1. (Most of my time was in ME-01 rather than ME-02, so lots of Ed Thelander signs, and he is clearly not going to win.) Mills did seem to have the best sign representation among Democrats, many more than Pingree or Golden in their respective districts (didn't see a single Golden sign, come to think of it, though probably like my liberal relatives in Bangor many Democrats are embarassed of him but will vote for him anyway).
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2022, 12:10:57 PM »

This would be a result you would see if democrats were overperforming 2020. Not happening. I can see Golden outperforming 2020 but he has massive crossover appeal that not many democrats do. Mills is definitely favored though, and it's possible MN flips before this one does
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2022, 03:36:02 PM »

Am I the only one seeing a pattern here?

of just Maine or GOP governor candidates across the board?

I feel like Dobbs was likely the final nail in the coffin for most.

It is starting to seem like the gubernatorial map is narrowing rapidly for Republicans. As of now, there are only five states I see as potential or likely Republican pickups at the gubernatorial level: Kansas, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, and Wisconsin. And Democrats are probably favored in New Mexico and have a 50/50 shot of winning the other four states. Illinois, Minnesota, and Maine are completely off the board for Republicans, and Michigan and Pennsylvania appear to be as well.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2022, 04:30:02 PM »

Like I said, she's never truly been in danger. She would have won even if the election had been held in June.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2022, 05:14:08 PM »

Am I the only one seeing a pattern here?

of just Maine or GOP governor candidates across the board?

I feel like Dobbs was likely the final nail in the coffin for most.

It is starting to seem like the gubernatorial map is narrowing rapidly for Republicans. As of now, there are only five states I see as potential or likely Republican pickups at the gubernatorial level: Kansas, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, and Wisconsin. And Democrats are probably favored in New Mexico and have a 50/50 shot of winning the other four states. Illinois, Minnesota, and Maine are completely off the board for Republicans, and Michigan and Pennsylvania appear to be as well.

I don't know if it's due to the significant shift in the political climate or the candidates themselves, but many Democratic incumbents seem to have been underestimated this year. And I'll cop to being one of those who initially thought that Evers, Kelly, and Whitmer would be goners while Mills and Walz would barely hang on, and others like Pritzker would significantly under-perform a la Murphy last year. But this does not seem to be the case. And maybe it was due to expectations being set by 2021 PTSD.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2022, 05:18:00 PM »

Am I the only one seeing a pattern here?

of just Maine or GOP governor candidates across the board?

I feel like Dobbs was likely the final nail in the coffin for most.

It is starting to seem like the gubernatorial map is narrowing rapidly for Republicans. As of now, there are only five states I see as potential or likely Republican pickups at the gubernatorial level: Kansas, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, and Wisconsin. And Democrats are probably favored in New Mexico and have a 50/50 shot of winning the other four states. Illinois, Minnesota, and Maine are completely off the board for Republicans, and Michigan and Pennsylvania appear to be as well.

I don't know if it's due to the significant shift in the political climate or the candidates themselves, but many Democratic incumbents seem to have been underestimated this year. And I'll cop to being one of those who initially thought that Evers, Kelly, and Whitmer would be goners while Mills and Walz would barely hang on, and others like Pritzker would significantly under-perform a la Murphy last year. But this does not seem to be the case. And maybe it was due to expectations being set by 2021 PTSD.

I think it's a combination of all three factors. It's clear to me by now that Dobbs (along with the continuing Republican loyalty to Trump) has had an impact upon the national environment, energizing progressive and female Democratic voters. Republicans have nominated many god awful candidates (i.e. Dixon, Jensen, Mastriano, Bailey, Cox, Masters, Walker, etc.) and incumbents do tend to be structurally advantaged, even if they are not to the same extent as decades past.

I also think that presidential partisanship is influencing downballot races more heavily than before. So, even though most of these Democratic incumbents are seemingly favored, we are not going to see them (aside from Kelly in Kansas) running significantly ahead of Biden in 2020 - or at least, not on the scale of winning 60% or 70% landslides in closely divided states that would have been possible 30, 20, or even 10 years ago.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2022, 07:16:55 PM »

If only Dobbs had been decided a year earlier, TMAC would be governor of Virginia right now. Cry
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TML
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2022, 07:26:45 PM »

Am I the only one seeing a pattern here?

of just Maine or GOP governor candidates across the board?

I feel like Dobbs was likely the final nail in the coffin for most.

It is starting to seem like the gubernatorial map is narrowing rapidly for Republicans. As of now, there are only five states I see as potential or likely Republican pickups at the gubernatorial level: Kansas, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, and Wisconsin. And Democrats are probably favored in New Mexico and have a 50/50 shot of winning the other four states. Illinois, Minnesota, and Maine are completely off the board for Republicans, and Michigan and Pennsylvania appear to be as well.

I don't know if it's due to the significant shift in the political climate or the candidates themselves, but many Democratic incumbents seem to have been underestimated this year. And I'll cop to being one of those who initially thought that Evers, Kelly, and Whitmer would be goners while Mills and Walz would barely hang on, and others like Pritzker would significantly under-perform a la Murphy last year. But this does not seem to be the case. And maybe it was due to expectations being set by 2021 PTSD.

I think it's a combination of all three factors. It's clear to me by now that Dobbs (along with the continuing Republican loyalty to Trump) has had an impact upon the national environment, energizing progressive and female Democratic voters. Republicans have nominated many god awful candidates (i.e. Dixon, Jensen, Mastriano, Bailey, Cox, Masters, Walker, etc.) and incumbents do tend to be structurally advantaged, even if they are not to the same extent as decades past.

I also think that presidential partisanship is influencing downballot races more heavily than before. So, even though most of these Democratic incumbents are seemingly favored, we are not going to see them (aside from Kelly in Kansas) running significantly ahead of Biden in 2020 - or at least, not on the scale of winning 60% or 70% landslides in closely divided states that would have been possible 30, 20, or even 10 years ago.

Do you think LePage being a retread candidate is another factor thatís dragging him down?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2022, 07:29:44 PM »

Am I the only one seeing a pattern here?

of just Maine or GOP governor candidates across the board?

I feel like Dobbs was likely the final nail in the coffin for most.

It is starting to seem like the gubernatorial map is narrowing rapidly for Republicans. As of now, there are only five states I see as potential or likely Republican pickups at the gubernatorial level: Kansas, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, and Wisconsin. And Democrats are probably favored in New Mexico and have a 50/50 shot of winning the other four states. Illinois, Minnesota, and Maine are completely off the board for Republicans, and Michigan and Pennsylvania appear to be as well.

I don't know if it's due to the significant shift in the political climate or the candidates themselves, but many Democratic incumbents seem to have been underestimated this year. And I'll cop to being one of those who initially thought that Evers, Kelly, and Whitmer would be goners while Mills and Walz would barely hang on, and others like Pritzker would significantly under-perform a la Murphy last year. But this does not seem to be the case. And maybe it was due to expectations being set by 2021 PTSD.

I think it's a combination of all three factors. It's clear to me by now that Dobbs (along with the continuing Republican loyalty to Trump) has had an impact upon the national environment, energizing progressive and female Democratic voters. Republicans have nominated many god awful candidates (i.e. Dixon, Jensen, Mastriano, Bailey, Cox, Masters, Walker, etc.) and incumbents do tend to be structurally advantaged, even if they are not to the same extent as decades past.

I also think that presidential partisanship is influencing downballot races more heavily than before. So, even though most of these Democratic incumbents are seemingly favored, we are not going to see them (aside from Kelly in Kansas) running significantly ahead of Biden in 2020 - or at least, not on the scale of winning 60% or 70% landslides in closely divided states that would have been possible 30, 20, or even 10 years ago.

Do you think LePage being a retread candidate is another factor thatís dragging him down?

It very well could be. This may also be the main reason why Stacey Abrams is failing in Georgia. Voters generally do not look upon retread candidates favorably. One has to remember that LePage won his two prior gubernatorial races with pluralities thanks to the fractured opposition against him in those years.
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