Hobbs continues to have the best net fav out of all 4 candidates, while Lake has consistently been underwater.
Are Lake's ads attacking Hobbs specifically? While she may be a quieter candidate, people still seem to "like" her (or more, they don't strongly dislike her) like other candidates.
It's still kind of disappointing she hasn't been polling away since or reaching Kelly-levels leads. That said, I don't think these races will end that far apart. And a high single digit or double digit lead by Hobbs would be dismissed as unrealistic.
The range of possibilities here is anywhere between Lake +2 to Hobbs +4. Hobbs by around 2 pt. would be my bet as of today, similar to Kelly.
