AZ-GOV (Suffolk): Hobbs +1

[wbrocks67]

Hobbs (D) 46%
Lake (R) 45%
Undecided 8%

Hobbs fav: 44/32 (+12)
Lake fav: 41/46 (-5)

Was taken 9/21-25, so before much of the news about the new abortion ban.

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2022/9_27_2022_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=CCF4EBD1AB374306D62E429263030AD53F974576

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hobbs is definitely favorite, Trafalgar is definitely push poll Lake plus 5

[wbrocks67]

Hobbs continues to have the best net fav out of all 4 candidates, while Lake has consistently been underwater.

Are Lake's ads attacking Hobbs specifically? While she may be a quieter candidate, people still seem to "like" her (or more, they don't strongly dislike her) like other candidates.

[Devout Centrist]

I have not seen a single ad from Lake. I have heard the RGA is financing ads attacking Hobbs, but the Senate race has received 90% of people’s attention thus far.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The idea that people don't care about election truthing just needs to die. They clearly do

[wbrocks67]

I have not seen a single ad from Lake. I have heard the RGA is financing ads attacking Hobbs, but the Senate race has received 90% of people’s attention thus far.

Yeah, sorry i meant RGA ads. Lake is only starting her owns starting today, funny enough.

How are the Hobbs/DGA ads?

[Devout Centrist]

I have not seen a single ad from Lake. I have heard the RGA is financing ads attacking Hobbs, but the Senate race has received 90% of people’s attention thus far.

Yeah, sorry i meant RGA ads. Lake is only starting her owns starting today, funny enough.

How are the Hobbs/DGA ads?

I’ve seen digital ads for Hobbs, mostly about abortion and the border. Some anti-Lake ads scattered in there (she is a crazy woman, you see).

[Calthrina950]

This race remains a Tossup, although I maintain that Lake has a higher likelihood of winning than Masters does at this point.

[wbrocks67]

"Very likely to vote" a bit better for Hobbs, 48-45.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hobbs continues to have the best net fav out of all 4 candidates, while Lake has consistently been underwater.

Are Lake's ads attacking Hobbs specifically? While she may be a quieter candidate, people still seem to "like" her (or more, they don't strongly dislike her) like other candidates.

It's still kind of disappointing she hasn't been polling away since or reaching Kelly-levels leads. That said, I don't think these races will end that far apart. And a high single digit or double digit lead by Hobbs would be dismissed as unrealistic.

The range of possibilities here is anywhere between Lake +2 to Hobbs +4. Hobbs by around 2 pt. would be my bet as of today, similar to Kelly.

[Cyrusman]

The fact that this is an Arizona poll yet they do not include Immigration/border as one of the issues in section #9 is laughable. Still holding firmly that this will be a Kelly/Lake situation where the senate goes Democrat and governor goes Republican.

[Devout Centrist]

The fact that this is an Arizona poll yet they do not include Immigration/border as one of the issues in section #9 is laughable.

no one cares about this unless they are 1. a Republican or 2. live on the border

[Cyrusman]

The fact that this is an Arizona poll yet they do not include Immigration/border as one of the issues in section #9 is laughable.

no one cares about this unless they are 1. a Republican or 2. live on the border

That sounds like a pretty wide range of people considering AZ is a Border state with plenty of people who live there and the republicans are the party with the most registered voters in Arizona, but yea that translates to “ no one cares”

This forum is really disconnected from the average person.

[Mr.Phips]

The fact that this is an Arizona poll yet they do not include Immigration/border as one of the issues in section #9 is laughable. Still holding firmly that this will be a Kelly/Lake situation where the senate goes Democrat and governor goes Republican.

I’m seeing the same thing with the final result.  Lake will narrowly win, while Kelly wins by around two points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's good to see Hobbs leading at all, even if she is still significantly trailing Kelly.

Hopefully we can start seeing her improve if the relevancy of abortion in Arizona truly does end up being relevant enough to help her out.