OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[JMT]

Dolan officially made his announcement today:

https://twitter.com/dolan4ohio/status/1615340622600196096?s=46&t=dHTe5eSUIGk...

[SnowLabrador]

I don't see how Brown wins no matter what happens. Even after JD Vance barely campaigned at all and that poor 10-year-old girl had to travel out of state for an abortion, Ryan still lost by over 6 points. It's not happening. R+1.

[Sir Mohamed]

I don't see how Brown wins no matter what happens. Even after JD Vance barely campaigned at all and that poor 10-year-old girl had to travel out of state for an abortion, Ryan still lost by over 6 points. It's not happening. R+1.

You didn't see Shapiro and Fetterman winning either and suggested you'd leave the forum forever of they win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't see how Brown wins no matter what happens. Even after JD Vance barely campaigned at all and that poor 10-year-old girl had to travel out of state for an abortion, Ryan still lost by over 6 points. It's not happening. R+1.

Tbf, there were things working in Vance’s favor, most notably, low black turnout which is why counties like Moaning, Allen, and Montgomery counties swinging right from 2020 Pres.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Brown shouldn't be that difficult to dislodge, I maintain that the trickiest seat for the GOP is defeating Tester.

[Horus]

Pure tossup. Brown is a workhorse who knows his state very well. Almost Marcy Kaptur level I'd argue.

[wbrocks67]

I don't see how Brown wins no matter what happens. Even after JD Vance barely campaigned at all and that poor 10-year-old girl had to travel out of state for an abortion, Ryan still lost by over 6 points. It's not happening. R+1.

Tbf, there were things working in Vance’s favor, most notably, low black turnout which is why counties like Moaning, Allen, and Montgomery counties swinging right from 2020 Pres.

Not to mention, every other statewide GOPer won by at least like 13%, let alone DeWine's 25% coattails. Vance's 6% showing was pitiful in comparison.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown shouldn't be that difficult to dislodge, I maintain that the trickiest seat for the GOP is defeating Tester.

Do you know why Ds win it's because RS refuses to raise the Fed minimum wage to 13 an HR it's been stuck at 7.50 and Ryan lost because only due to DeWine pulling Vance over not the other way around DeWine won by 25 and he isn't on the ballot in 24, but tte Documents story is gonna factor in Biden commit a Misdemeanor not a felony due to negligence not intentional

Some users think Ds are gonna lose just because they are socialst yes because 50 M are in Poverty it's not a laughing matter

[TML]

I don't see how Brown wins no matter what happens. Even after JD Vance barely campaigned at all and that poor 10-year-old girl had to travel out of state for an abortion, Ryan still lost by over 6 points. It's not happening. R+1.

Tbf, there were things working in Vance’s favor, most notably, low black turnout which is why counties like Moaning, Allen, and Montgomery counties swinging right from 2020 Pres.

Ryan made some of the same mistakes that Joe Donnelly did in 2018 - namely, campaigning as Republican-lite and using Republican rhetoric against the Democratic base, which was a major contributing factor in both of their losses (due to depressed Democratic base turnout). On the other hand, I don't see evidence of Brown having campaigned as Republican-lite in the same way that Donnelly & Ryan did, and as long as Brown continues to avoid doing that, he should be fine as long as he runs a competent campaign and is popular enough.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Brown shouldn't be that difficult to dislodge, I maintain that the trickiest seat for the GOP is defeating Tester.

You’re not wrong about Tester, but Brown is going to be a stubborn boulder to move, especially since the GOP primary voters refuse to nominate anyone with an ounce of likability

If republicans really want to get rid of Brown they should lobby DeWine to run, but honestly I don’t know if he could win a primary

[MT Treasurer]

Imagine unironically believing that Republicans need Mike DeWine to beat Sherrod Brown or that Sherrod Brown will overperform by as much as Nancy Kaptur (when he’s never done that in the past and there are absolutely no indications the OH GOP is going to nominate someone like Majewski).

This isn’t any better than a Lean R race for Democrats.

Ryan made some of the same mistakes that Joe Donnelly did in 2018 - namely, campaigning as Republican-lite and using Republican rhetoric against the Democratic base, which was a major contributing factor in both of their losses (due to depressed Democratic base turnout).

Cenk Uygur, is that you?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Imagine unironically believing that Republicans need Mike DeWine to beat Sherrod Brown or that Sherrod Brown will overperform by as much as Nancy Kaptur (when he’s never done that in the past and there are absolutely no indications the OH GOP is going to nominate someone like Majewski).

This isn’t any better than a Lean R race for Democrats.

Ryan made some of the same mistakes that Joe Donnelly did in 2018 - namely, campaigning as Republican-lite and using Republican rhetoric against the Democratic base, which was a major contributing factor in both of their losses (due to depressed Democratic base turnout).

Cenk Uygur, is that you?

He did beat Mike DeWine in 2006 and no it's not Lean R until we see a poll

[Unelectable Bystander]

Dolan would not have any problems with turnout considering it’s a presidential year. He would probably even run ahead of the R ticket honestly.

The NBC exit polls had non-whites making up a similar amount of the electorate in 2022 vs 2022 (16 and 17%). Non-college whites went from 53% in 2020 to 46% in 2022. This was a huge factor working against Vance.

There is no such thing as a senator riding a governor’s coattails. Vance winning by 6 when everybody else won by 15-25% is only evidence of Vance being a bad candidate, Ryan being perhaps a titan, and Vance riding the coattails of Ohio being a red state.

I don’t buy that Ryan somehow lost votes by being palatable to moderate R’s in a state where the generic ballot is double digits in the other direction.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 2 yrs to Eday folk's

[Canis]

Dolan would be a formidable opponent should he get the nomination but that's a big IF.

[Suburbia]

Brown should retire, why go down losing.

Ohio has changed. Ed Schultz would be rolling in his grave.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Brown is an underdog but he certainly isn't DOA as some seem to think.

Even though OH has become pretty stubbornly R overall, it's still a relatively close race with; Trump "only" won it by 8 points.

And to those who point to Vance's 6 point win, consider that was with a relatively decent national environment and low black turnout in Ohio. Ryan was still able to outrun Biden by nearly 10 points throughout much of rural Ohio.

Obviously, any Brown winning coalition would be very different than his 2018 win. Basically no matter what, his support in Northeastern Ohio is going to erode due to the race being more federalzie, general political shifts, and 6 years worth of population decline.

Brown would need to outrun his 2018 performance in densely populated SW OH around Cinci. His performance was only barely better than Biden's, and Butler, Warren, and Clermont have historically been the biggest vote nets for Ohio Rs. He'd also need to do a bit better in Columbus likely.

Still, I think Brown should be considered an underdog at this point given Ohio's overall lean and the fact this race will be heavily polarized. He still has a path (but it could def erode if he has some huge scandal or if it's clear 2024 will be a good year for the GOP and Ds divert money).

Ds would be foolish to pull out of OH-Sen though, particularly because there's a good chance it's the tipping point seat for the chamber

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the congressional map actually does a good job at showing Ds problem in Ohio. Unlike states like Michigan and Minnesota, urban areas alone are not enough to outvote the rest of the state. Of the 15 congressional districts, only 3 can truly be considered urban, whereas the rest are a mix of suburban/rural or almost purely rural.

And rmbr too, at this point, mid-sized communities like Akron and Toledo barely outvote their surrounding communities in a normal election. The 3 Cs are the only true vote net for Ds

[S019]

Imagine unironically believing that Republicans need Mike DeWine to beat Sherrod Brown or that Sherrod Brown will overperform by as much as Nancy Kaptur (when he’s never done that in the past and there are absolutely no indications the OH GOP is going to nominate someone like Majewski).

This isn’t any better than a Lean R race for Democrats.

Ryan made some of the same mistakes that Joe Donnelly did in 2018 - namely, campaigning as Republican-lite and using Republican rhetoric against the Democratic base, which was a major contributing factor in both of their losses (due to depressed Democratic base turnout).

Cenk Uygur, is that you?

I feel like lots of people forget that Brown didn’t actually overperform in 2012 and basically ran even with Obama (back when Ohio was a swing state), he’s probably going to need to outperform Biden by 5 to have a realistic chance of winning and I just don’t see that happening, also there will probably be a non-neglible amount of Biden/R voters in places like Delaware County (there are some towns there that voted Renacci/Biden). I honestly think this is a Likely R race, and there’s a realistic chance that it ends up right of the tipping point.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Is Majewski going to run? I saw it mentioned.

[Matty]

I just don't see brown winning on a same night biden will be losing the state by 7+

[Xing]

Brown is definitely an underdog, but he has a chance. If the Republican nominee wins Ohio by 10+, it’s very hard to see how he wins, but if it’s more like a 5-6 point win, then it’s certainly easy to see how he could win. His brand is stronger than in 2012 (as 2018 showed), and there’s absolutely no way he runs behind the Democratic ticket. My guess is he loses by 3-4% for now.

[GALeftist]

Don't forget that despite Ryan's 2022 overperformance he had an obvious problem in a lot of urban areas. I don't think that this will be the case for Brown; he has a very strong relationship with the Ohio black community, from what I understand. That is to say, there is obviously room for Brown to grow on Ryan's performance. The real issue for Brown is that it seems like the GOP might nominate someone who isn't a total weirdo (i.e. LaRose); we'll see.

Also I feel like people are being excessively harsh on Brown's 2012 performance. 3 points above Obama 2012 in the Midwest is nothing to sneeze at, especially since Mandel wasn't such a joke back then. Casey Jr. did 4 points better than Obama and Baldwin ran behind him by a little bit, I think it would be silly to conclude that they are therefore mediocre candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as this document story continues to unfold most red states are gonna Lean R anyways, Biden was seen as some Working class D he isn't one now because he is seen as corrupted just like Bill Clinton was a Working class D and won the S well when Lewinsky scandal happened he lost the S

[S019]

Don't forget that despite Ryan's 2022 overperformance he had an obvious problem in a lot of urban areas. I don't think that this will be the case for Brown; he has a very strong relationship with the Ohio black community, from what I understand. That is to say, there is obviously room for Brown to grow on Ryan's performance. The real issue for Brown is that it seems like the GOP might nominate someone who isn't a total weirdo (i.e. LaRose); we'll see.

Also I feel like people are being excessively harsh on Brown's 2012 performance. 3 points above Obama 2012 in the Midwest is nothing to sneeze at, especially since Mandel wasn't such a joke back then. Casey Jr. did 4 points better than Obama and Baldwin ran behind him by a little bit, I think it would be silly to conclude that they are therefore mediocre candidates.

If this was right, you would have a valid point but Brown basically ran even with Obama, Mandel underperformed Romney by 2-3 pts. Casey Jr. I think will be fine unless Republicans win PA by like 3, but I don't think it's a stretch to say that Baldwin is in a tossup race (Gallagher is also sending clear signs that he's running).