PA-GOV (InsiderAdvantage): Shapiro +15

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro (D) 52%
Mastriano (R) 37%
Hackenberg (L) 3%
Undecided 7%

https://www.fox29.com/election/insideradvantage-fox-29-poll-shows-fetterman-leading-oz-shapiro-in-double-digit-lead-over-mastriano

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction: this will be closer to the final result than the Shapiro+3 poll.

[MT Treasurer]

If there’s any race in the country where I expected an abnormally wide (even by today's standards) range of poll results, it’s this one. Not surprised at all that we got a Shapiro +15 on the same day we got a Shapiro +3 one.

[wbrocks67]

If there’s any race in the country where I expected an abnormally wide (even by today's standards) range of poll results, it’s this one. Not surprised at all that we got a Shapiro +15 on the same day we got a Shapiro +3 one.

I'm very unsure of how this one will play out. You could make an argument for either. On one hand, it would make sense for Shapiro to win bigly considering Mastriano is barely running a campaign and has no money. On the other hand, given the history of Trump voters showing up even when they're unexpected, it could still make this a close race purely bc of big GOP turnout.

It is funny how lately it's either been Shapiro +2/3 or double digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If there’s any race in the country where I expected an abnormally wide (even by today's standards) range of poll results, it’s this one. Not surprised at all that we got a Shapiro +15 on the same day we got a Shapiro +3 one.

It's not a red wave no more R nut maps

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Mastriano's decision to campaign solely on Facebook and with far-right, no-press rallies is looking more and more insane by the day.

Granted, he would likely be losing regardless because he's a nut, but he's losing by a larger margin than he otherwise would be.

[President Johnson]

If there’s any race in the country where I expected an abnormally wide (even by today's standards) range of poll results, it’s this one. Not surprised at all that we got a Shapiro +15 on the same day we got a Shapiro +3 one.

What's your prediction here? I guess the truth is somewhere in the middle between these two. Maybe even exactly in between these margins.