WA-SEN (Trafalgar): Murray +2.2

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/robertcahaly/status/1574418029781274625?s=46&t=UXaAEVa3D...
Again, could be closer than many here expect, but no way it’s THAT close. Still expecting a 9-10 point victory for Murray at the end of the day.

[wbrocks67]

So Kari Lake can hit 50% in Arizona in a tossup race, but Patty Murray can't even get past 49% in... Washington? Okay.

[Gass3268]

Trashfalger strikes again

[soundchaser]

If this and their Vermont poll don't set off alarm bells about Trafalgar, I don't know what will. Absolutely ridiculous.

[Sir Mohamed]

#Everyraceisatossup

If we were to believe recent polls, Murray and OK Gov. Stitt are endangered to lose reelection at the same time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am glad it's wave insurance OK Gov, I will take it👍

[wbrocks67]

This continues the trend of every recent Trafalgar poll showing momentum towards Rs. Every one.

[Real Texan Politics]

I am glad it's wave insurance OK Gov, I will take it👍

I’ve got some beachfront property in Wyoming to sell you if you truly believe Oklahoma is competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not really they have Fetterman and Shapiro+2

[GeorgiaModerate]

They're a joke.

[It’s so Joever]

This continues the trend of every recent Trafalgar poll showing momentum towards Rs. Every one.

And what does that tell you?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

They need to f*** off with this nonsense. They're really suggesting Washington state is going to be to the right of Pennsylvania? When Murray already got 52% of the vote in the blanket primary, with a nearly 20 point lead over the closest Republican?

I know they got a bunch of states close in 2020 and so people are inclined to trust them, but give me a break with this crap. There is no universe where that happens.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don’t get why polls like this are viewed to be favorable to the GOP as in actuality they can cause Republicans to invest money in a Safe D state which should be going to a battleground state

[Minnesota Mike]

Nope. Not with the party spread in the primary 14 points. A 2% spread would literally be unprecedented movement.

[wbrocks67]

Nope. Not with the party spread in the primary 14 points. A 2% spread would literally be unprecedented movement.

Not just that, but national GOP would be spending much more here if they were seeing it within 2%.

[wbrocks67]

Also interesting they never poll the GOV race, just the SEN race.

[Calthrina950]

Also interesting they never poll the GOV race, just the SEN race.

Inslee is not up for reelection this year. Why would they be polling that race?

[MaxQue]

I don’t get why polls like this are viewed to be favorable to the GOP as in actuality they can cause Republicans to invest money in a Safe D state which should be going to a battleground state

Republicans have their own internal pollsters to take those decisions.

[Yoda]

Trafalgar is trolling us at this point. Next they're going to say Schumer's race is within 2 points.

[soundchaser]

I don’t get why polls like this are viewed to be favorable to the GOP as in actuality they can cause Republicans to invest money in a Safe D state which should be going to a battleground state

Republicans have their own internal pollsters to take those decisions.

Really - if Republican internal polling isn't more competent than Trafalgar's, they've got much, much bigger problems.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Nope. Not with the party spread in the primary 14 points. A 2% spread would literally be unprecedented movement.

So the NH primary is good news for Republicans then? If you want to play this game, at least be consistent

[soundchaser]

Nope. Not with the party spread in the primary 14 points. A 2% spread would literally be unprecedented movement.

So the NH primary is good news for Republicans then? If you want to play this game, at least be consistent

The WA primary is historically far more of a signpost than the NH one. That doesn't mean it's infallible, but you'd be foolish not to at least consider it in your overall picture of November.

[Minnesota Mike]

Nope. Not with the party spread in the primary 14 points. A 2% spread would literally be unprecedented movement.

So the NH primary is good news for Republicans then? If you want to play this game, at least be consistent

Apples and Oranges. Top 2 primaries where everyone is on the same ballot have proven to be very predictive, open primaries where voters choose which separate party primary to vote in have not.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nope. Not with the party spread in the primary 14 points. A 2% spread would literally be unprecedented movement.

So the NH primary is good news for Republicans then? If you want to play this game, at least be consistent

Apples and Oranges. Top 2 primaries where everyone is on the same ballot have proven to be very predictive, open primaries where voters choose which separate party primary to vote in have not.

Beat me to it.  I was about to ask him when NH started having a primary with all candidates running together.

[wbrocks67]

Also interesting they never poll the GOV race, just the SEN race.

Inslee is not up for reelection this year. Why would they be polling that race?

Ugh, my bad. Was thinking of OR with Wyden also on the ballot.