Will Gallups History Prevail?

[mddem2004]

In looking at Gallups polling trends since the 1948 election, it is apparent that in every INCUMBANT election where the race for the White House was fairly tight (1976, 1980, 1992), if the incumbant fell behind the challenger in Gallops polls......even briefly....during the summer months, the incumbant lost the election.

The only exception to this is the 1948 election.

In every other INCUMBANT election since 1948 (ie 1956, 1964, 1972, 1984, and 1996) the challenger never closed on the incumbant and resulted in large landslides for the incumbant party.

Although Bush appears to have closed the gap with Kerry in Gallup's latest poll (48 Bush - 47 Kerry on 6/22), Bush has already fallen behind Kerry twice (Bush 46 - Kerry 47 on May 21) and (44 Bush - 50 Kerry on 6/3) in Gallops polls.

Gallups next poll is due out in the next few days, possibly during the news of Kerrys running mate selection.

If Bush falls behind Kerry in Gallups early July poll, will history prevail and Bush be defeated or will Bush pull a Truman and a 1948 style comeback?

 

[TeePee4Prez]

LET'S HOPE SO!!

[Beet]

The fashionable comparisons of this year have run more back into the late 19th century elections than mid-20th century ones.

[Gustaf]

It's Gallup...

This is a close election, like all such elections rules of thumb point in different directions. So it's hard to tell, IMHO, both sides can name a lot of such factors in their favour.

[King]

History has never repeated itself and it never will.

[mddem2004]

It's Gallup...

This is a close election, like all such elections rules of thumb point in different directions. So it's hard to tell, IMHO, both sides can name a lot of such factors in their favour.

Always was a rotten speller!!! I agree on the conflicting factors both sides can point to. Bush did break a historical trend in the 2002 mid terms after all by actually gaining seats in Congress in his first mid term election.

Its interesting to compare Gallup's 1960 election graph to this year....very similar, but it wasn't an incumbant election.

[The Vorlon]

Since 1948, no President with an approval rating higher than 43% in June has ever lost

But seriously...

All these statements that "No President since.... etc... etc...."

We are talking about a sample size of like 6 races...

The polls gallup did 30 years ago were also done very much differently than those done today, so the results are not comparable anyway...

2004 is like 2004..