WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Johnson +2

[Pericles]

It's a Tossup race based on the polls, it's only Lean R if you assume the polls will swing to Johnson or underestimate him.

[Pericles]

Feeling very good about WI/NC/NV (all Lean R), but it’s going to come down to AZ/GA/PA. Republicans need one of those three races to win the majority, and unfortunately, they’ve nominated candidates likely to underperform generic R by a few points in all three states. However, I still think they can win one of those states (probably PA?), maybe two on a really good night, but they’ll need a favorable environment to pull it off.

Republicans are down by more than 2020 in AZ and PA, Masters and Oz have choked and it looks unlikely to happen there. So it could come down to GA again but Walker will struggle to win a majority or a runoff. Democrats are more likely to win, even though an upset is possible.

[Pericles]

Feeling very good about WI/NC/NV (all Lean R), but it’s going to come down to AZ/GA/PA. Republicans need one of those three races to win the majority, and unfortunately, they’ve nominated candidates likely to underperform generic R by a few points in all three states. However, I still think they can win one of those states (probably PA?), maybe two on a really good night, but they’ll need a favorable environment to pull it off.

Republicans are down by more than 2020 in AZ and PA, Masters and Oz have choked and it looks unlikely to happen there. So it could come down to GA again but Walker will struggle to win a majority or a runoff. Democrats are more likely to win, even though an upset is possible.

I don’t really trust polls showing Republicans in a much better position in GA than in PA/AZ. I could see the GA race going to a runoff, but it’s much more likely one of Masters/Oz wins in November than that Walker wins a runoff election in which turnout dynamics dramatically favor Democrats. I think a runoff in GA-SEN would look a lot like those special elections (it could be closer if the race were to decide Senate control, but even then it would be a major uphill battle for Walker).

My point was that it's hard to see Oz and Masters actually winning. I'm not saying Walker does or doesn't have a strong chance. If he doesn't, then obviously the Senate is going to stay Democratic.