WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Johnson +2
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  WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Johnson +2
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Author Topic: WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Johnson +2  (Read 1013 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: September 23, 2022, 02:47:29 PM »

Trafalgar put out a new poll of Wisconsin's Senate race:



Wisconsin remains a close race, with Johnson holding a slight advantage in most recent polls.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2022, 02:50:45 PM »

Toss Up remains Toss Up.

If Republicans win in Nevada and hold Wisconsin but lose Pennsylvania the Senate would remain at 50/50.

A GOP House + a 50/50 is best case scenario for Republicans now.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2022, 02:53:44 PM »

Lean R, sadly
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2022, 02:54:43 PM »

Given the source, a pretty good poll for Barnes.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2022, 02:56:10 PM »

Given the source, a pretty good poll for Barnes.

Opinions on "Trashfalgar" (as you call it) are set in stone at this point, but should we then disregard Marquette, Civiqs, and Emerson, all of which have shown Johnson leading? Especially Marquette, which most consider to be "the gold standard" of Wisconsin here?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2022, 02:59:13 PM »

Given the source, a pretty good poll for Barnes.

Opinions on "Trashfalgar" (as you call it) are set in stone at this point, but should we then disregard Marquette, Civiqs, and Emerson, all of which have shown Johnson leading? Especially Marquette, which most consider to be "the gold standard" of Wisconsin here?

Marquette is really the only poll in Wisconsin I take seriously.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2022, 03:00:21 PM »

Given the source, a pretty good poll for Barnes.

Opinions on "Trashfalgar" (as you call it) are set in stone at this point, but should we then disregard Marquette, Civiqs, and Emerson, all of which have shown Johnson leading? Especially Marquette, which most consider to be "the gold standard" of Wisconsin here?

Marquette is really the only poll in Wisconsin I take seriously.

Even they don't have a perfect record, and no pollster does. But we have now had four polls showing Johnson leading, so I think it's hard not to say that he has the advantage at this point.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2022, 03:01:16 PM »

He isn't down by 4 like the other polls but Barnes will ultimately win
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2022, 03:07:07 PM »

Toss Up remains Toss Up.

If Republicans win in Nevada and hold Wisconsin but lose Pennsylvania the Senate would remain at 50/50.

A GOP House + a 50/50 is best case scenario for Republicans now.

That's definitely not the best case scenario. I'd call that probably the most realistic. Best case Scenario for the GOP would be winning GA, AZ and holding PA too, OR at the very least adding GA to their win column along with NV.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2022, 03:13:27 PM »

Given the source, a pretty good poll for Barnes.

Opinions on "Trashfalgar" (as you call it) are set in stone at this point, but should we then disregard Marquette, Civiqs, and Emerson, all of which have shown Johnson leading? Especially Marquette, which most consider to be "the gold standard" of Wisconsin here?

Marquette is really the only poll in Wisconsin I take seriously.

Yeah, some specific pollsters really know how to nail their states. In Wisconsin, that's Marquette. In Iowa, you have Ann Selzer (I don't think anyone here has to bring up her final poll before the 2020 election). California used to have the Field Poll, but that unfortunately shut down a few years ago.

With that said, I think most of us expected a result like this from this poll, especially considering their previous one. I don't expect this race to break one way or the other in polling. It'll likely be a toss-up to the end, perhaps slightly tilting one way or the other.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2022, 03:20:06 PM »

If we win OH or NC and lose WI then we still have 52seats Data 4 Progress has Laxalt +1 not 3 pts his lead isn't that big Beasley and Ryan are good candidates

Also Lombardo is tied didn't Molinaro have an 8 pt lead and 2016 posted it on the web and Pat Ryan win yes I know do
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Pericles
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2022, 03:21:07 PM »

It's a Tossup race based on the polls, it's only Lean R if you assume the polls will swing to Johnson or underestimate him.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2022, 03:21:42 PM »

Feeling very good about WI/NC/NV (all Lean R), but it’s going to come down to AZ/GA/PA. Republicans need one of those three races to win the majority, and unfortunately, they’ve nominated candidates likely to underperform generic R by a few points in all three states. However, I still think they can win one of those states (probably PA?), maybe two on a really good night, but they’ll need a favorable environment to pull it off.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2022, 03:22:32 PM »

It's a Tossup race based on the polls, it's only Lean R if you assume the polls will swing to Johnson or underestimate him.

You know exactly what happened in NY Molinaro had 8 pt lead and he lost take these polls with a grain of salt this close to EDay we are gonna vote very soon just because an R has a lead in a purple state doesn't mean it's over for D
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2022, 03:23:25 PM »

Feeling very good about WI/NC/NV (all Lean R), but it’s going to come down to AZ/GA/PA. Republicans need one of those three races to win the majority, and unfortunately, they’ve nominated candidates likely to underperform a generic R by a few points in all three states. However, I still think they can win one of those states (probably PA?), maybe two on a really good night.

Lol, /Molinaro had an 8 pt lead in NY 19 and he Lost we still have to vote oh and you guys are down in OH
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Pericles
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« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2022, 03:27:14 PM »

Feeling very good about WI/NC/NV (all Lean R), but it’s going to come down to AZ/GA/PA. Republicans need one of those three races to win the majority, and unfortunately, they’ve nominated candidates likely to underperform generic R by a few points in all three states. However, I still think they can win one of those states (probably PA?), maybe two on a really good night, but they’ll need a favorable environment to pull it off.

Republicans are down by more than 2020 in AZ and PA, Masters and Oz have choked and it looks unlikely to happen there. So it could come down to GA again but Walker will struggle to win a majority or a runoff. Democrats are more likely to win, even though an upset is possible.
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windjammer
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« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2022, 03:29:13 PM »

Feeling very good about WI/NC/NV (all Lean R), but it’s going to come down to AZ/GA/PA. Republicans need one of those three races to win the majority, and unfortunately, they’ve nominated candidates likely to underperform generic R by a few points in all three states. However, I still think they can win one of those states (probably PA?), maybe two on a really good night, but they’ll need a favorable environment to pull it off.
While I'm much more optimistic regarding democrats chance than you overall.

I definitely agree this is all going to come down to Pennsylvania and that republicans have a sh**t. Oz is unpopular but he's not perceived as unhinged lol
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2022, 03:30:10 PM »

He has an R nut map with NM going R c'mon
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2022, 03:30:13 PM »

Feeling very good about WI/NC/NV (all Lean R), but it’s going to come down to AZ/GA/PA. Republicans need one of those three races to win the majority, and unfortunately, they’ve nominated candidates likely to underperform generic R by a few points in all three states. However, I still think they can win one of those states (probably PA?), maybe two on a really good night, but they’ll need a favorable environment to pull it off.

Republicans are down by more than 2020 in AZ and PA, Masters and Oz have choked and it looks unlikely to happen there. So it could come down to GA again but Walker will struggle to win a majority or a runoff. Democrats are more likely to win, even though an upset is possible.

I don’t really trust polls showing Republicans in a much better position in GA than in PA/AZ. I could see the GA race going to a runoff, but it’s much more likely one of Masters/Oz wins in November than that Walker wins a runoff election in which turnout dynamics dramatically favor Democrats. I think a runoff in GA-SEN would look a lot like those special elections (it could be closer if the race were to decide Senate control, but even then it would be a major uphill battle for Walker).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2022, 03:39:35 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2022, 03:43:41 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

It says Warning on Impact poll Highly D partisan poll and on TRAFALGAR highly R partisan poll so that's that

They underpolled Kathy Hochul numbers 47/43 that proves they aren't accurate and Kathy Hochul is leading 50/35
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politicallefty
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« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2022, 03:44:07 PM »

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2022, 03:46:48 PM »

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

Yes, it used to be that state-level runoffs were four weeks after Election Day while federal race runoffs had the longer delay.  Now they're both four weeks after.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2022, 03:52:44 PM »

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

Yes, it used to be that state-level runoffs were four weeks after Election Day while federal race runoffs had the longer delay.  Now they're both four weeks after.

That’s very interesting, didn’t know that. Wasn’t the 2008 runoff four weaks after Election Day, though?

I still don’t see why a *shortened runoff* would benefit Republicans, though.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2022, 03:58:29 PM »

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

Yes, it used to be that state-level runoffs were four weeks after Election Day while federal race runoffs had the longer delay.  Now they're both four weeks after.

It seems like they mess with the runoff law a lot. The Senate runoff in 2008 was four weeks after the general election and only three weeks after in 1992.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #24 on: September 23, 2022, 03:59:59 PM »

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

Yes, it used to be that state-level runoffs were four weeks after Election Day while federal race runoffs had the longer delay.  Now they're both four weeks after.

That’s very interesting, didn’t know that. Wasn’t the 2008 runoff four weaks after Election Day, though?

I still don’t see why a *shortened runoff* would benefit Republicans, though.

Yes, it was at three or four weeks generally until around 2013, when a federal judge ruled that this wasn't enough time for military/overseas ballots and ordered a longer period.  But that ruling only applied to federal races, hence the split.  However, last year's voting law change solved that problem by sending ranked choice ballots to military/overseas voters, so they don't need to send in another set for a runoff, so both types of races are now back together at four weeks.
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