Early Voting thread.

[MikeIrvine]

I don't think anyone can decipher what is going anymore with Clark's mail at this point. Is the tweet above trying to say that there ended up being more in the 11/1 total so there may end up being more ballots that got added that were supposed to be in 11/2? I'm having a hard time keeping up.

It looks like there were additional ballots from 11/1 that didn't make it before reporting. With that in mind, I'd wager the same is likely true for 11/2. Also worth noting for the Clark watchers is that in person early vote ends tomorrow. Which means there's ballots over the weekend and Monday that won't have Rs in person edge chipping into the buffer

[bilaps]

I don't think anyone can decipher what is going anymore with Clark's mail at this point. Is the tweet above trying to say that there ended up being more in the 11/1 total so there may end up being more ballots that got added that were supposed to be in 11/2? I'm having a hard time keeping up.

Last three batches were 16-18k. Really doesn't matter what is their number by day at this point, it's how much is gonna be until tuesday. They say there is no backlog, so that's not good for Dems. Also, percentages are bad for them too. Maybe we could see after the last day of IPEV more batches that will be huge and good in percentages for Dems. If we don't see that, it's game over for them before election day.

[bilaps]

I have wondered when we'll see in AZ what we're seeing in NV and FL

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1588197382574833666

[MikeIrvine]

I don't think anyone can decipher what is going anymore with Clark's mail at this point. Is the tweet above trying to say that there ended up being more in the 11/1 total so there may end up being more ballots that got added that were supposed to be in 11/2? I'm having a hard time keeping up.

Last three batches were 16-18k. Really doesn't matter what is their number by day at this point, it's how much is gonna be until tuesday. They say there is no backlog, so that's not good for Dems. Also, percentages are bad for them too. Maybe we could see after the last day of IPEV more batches that will be huge and good in percentages for Dems. If we don't see that, it's game over for them before election day.

11/1 initially reported like 18k. It got revised up to 23-24k on 11/2. About 6k of the ballots initially reported from 11/2 were actually 11/1 ballots. Stands to reason that if there were 6k from 11/1 that never got reported until the next day...same could apply for those from 11/2.

[bilaps]

I don't think anyone can decipher what is going anymore with Clark's mail at this point. Is the tweet above trying to say that there ended up being more in the 11/1 total so there may end up being more ballots that got added that were supposed to be in 11/2? I'm having a hard time keeping up.

Last three batches were 16-18k. Really doesn't matter what is their number by day at this point, it's how much is gonna be until tuesday. They say there is no backlog, so that's not good for Dems. Also, percentages are bad for them too. Maybe we could see after the last day of IPEV more batches that will be huge and good in percentages for Dems. If we don't see that, it's game over for them before election day.

11/1 initially reported like 18k. It got revised up to 23-24k on 11/2. About 6k of the ballots initially reported from 11/2 were actually 11/1 ballots. Stands to reason that if there were 6k from 11/1 that never got reported until the next day...same could apply for those from 11/2.

How many were reported on 10/31 and 10/30?

[Eraserhead]

PA, NH, GA, AZ SEN are Lean D
WI, OH, NC, FL, UT are Tossups

I never bought users saying like Devil's and Eraserhead saying Red states are gone

Yesterday had DEMINGS down 2/4 pts and now NC is tied

Haha, wait what did I do? I try to be somewhat realistic but I definitely wouldn't put myself in the doomer category.

That said, Florida isn't happening. Come on, guy.

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1588205676643262465

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1588205676643262465

Ralston is pretty sensitive to minute changes. The tone of his blog has completely changed in the last 3-4 days, despite things only really moving a point or two towards the GOP.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’d rather be the GOP in Nevada right now, and if ED ends up being strongly pro-R (as it has been in most cycles, 2018 notwithstanding) then Rs should pretty much sweep the competitive races. If it’s fairly even, things will be close and it will come down to Indy voters and Washoe.

Bear in mind that Rosen won by about 50k votes in 2018, so while Dems are gonna fall 10-15k short (if not 20+) of their EV result in 2018, there’s still room for them to fall off as long as they do ok with Is and the ED vote. Historical precedent would suggest those are unlikely saviors in a D presidential midterm, however, so I’d rate NV as Lean R at this point for both senate and governor.

[Eraserhead]

Eh, I'm almost starting to feel better about our chances in Wisconsin than Georgia or Nevada (which isn't to say I feel great about them).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-polls-election-far-over-080003381.html

This article says forget the poll Ds are more pathways to win than Rs due, die to 303 map

[soundchaser]

Forgive me if I don’t trust a word of what Donna Brazile says.

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1588205676643262465

Ralston is pretty sensitive to minute changes. The tone of his blog has completely changed in the last 3-4 days, despite things only really moving a point or two towards the GOP.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’d rather be the GOP in Nevada right now, and if ED ends up being strongly pro-R (as it has been in most cycles, 2018 notwithstanding) then Rs should pretty much sweep the competitive races. If it’s fairly even, things will be close and it will come down to Indy voters and Washoe.

Bear in mind that Rosen won by about 50k votes in 2018, so while Dems are gonna fall 10-15k short (if not 20+) of their EV result in 2018, there’s still room for them to fall off as long as they do ok with Is and the ED vote. Historical precedent would suggest those are unlikely saviors in a D presidential midterm, however, so I’d rate NV as Lean R at this point for both senate and governor.

Qualitatively describing a race is a lot different than quantitatively describing it. Laxalt has maybe gone from a 50% chance to a 75% chance during the last week. If Ralston could assign probabilities, then it wouldn't sound so extreme, but in words that's going from "I can't pick who's the favorite" to "If I had to pick who's the favorite it's Laxalt every time". People go to him for a concise, mostly qualitative assessment about who's the favorite, not for measured uncertainty.

You can see the same thing in polls here when users are asked to predict a race. As soon as a candidate gets above maybe 60% in the 538 model, almost everyone will choose that person as the favorite if they have a binary who's gonna win choice.

[Lief 🗽]

Hate to say I told you so… but it’s not surprising that one of the country’s best Democratic turnout operations immediately collapsed after the state party was hijacked by a bunch of communist LARPers.

[Mr.Phips]

Hate to say I told you so… but it’s not surprising that one of the country’s best Democratic turnout operations immediately collapsed after the state party was hijacked by a bunch of communist LARPers.

Yep, they are on their way to turning Nevada into another Florida for Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

The Clark firewall is only 7.4 percent, more than 2 points under the Dem reg lead there. It was 47,000 at the end of early voting in 2018; it’s very unlikely the Dems get even close to that by the end of tomorrow.

Isn't this an apples to oranges comparison though? With much less mail voting, the Friday before Election Day in 2018 was essentially the final early vote. With mail still coming in all this weekend, Monday, Tuesday, etc., and Early IP done tomorrow, that would theoretically pad Dems total "early vote" lead, correct?

What I'm saying is, if mail comes in Sat, Sun, Mon, and Tue, at the rate that it has been, that could literally pad Dems lead pre-Election Day another ~15K at least.

(also he says Washoe is about even in the tweet but in the story says Dems have the same 3% lead they've had for days...)

[Duke of York]

Hate to say I told you so… but it’s not surprising that one of the country’s best Democratic turnout operations immediately collapsed after the state party was hijacked by a bunch of communist LARPers.

What a self own by them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1588187392501915651

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1588187392501915651

If Fetterman ends up winning by 5% or more, the absolute panic/elation (depending on your party) over this race is going to look so funny in hindsight.

[Hope For A New Era]

Really strange mixed picture we're getting. Nevada really not looking good for Dems at all by this point and looking worse every day, but Pennsylvania and Michigan are the complete opposite. Even Ohio is looking strong, though it's still probably not enough to win. Mail ballots up to this point in all three states are far more D than both 2018 and 2020, and a little more D in Wisconsin as well.

I can't help but think of Forumlurker's YouTube comment method prediction from a while back: D enthusiasm in the east, R enthusiasm in the west.


As a peculiar side note, apparently Iowa votes so far are like D+21? I can't help but think there must be some kind of error, because that just seems impossible to me. For comparison it was D+5 at the same point in 2018 and at D+9 at the same point in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

Really strange mixed picture we're getting. Nevada really not looking good for Dems at all by this point and looking worse every day, but Pennsylvania and Michigan are the complete opposite. Even Ohio is looking strong, though it's still probably not enough to win. Mail ballots up to this point in all three states are far more D than both 2018 and 2020, and a little more D in Wisconsin as well.

I can't help but think of Forumlurker's YouTube comment method prediction from a while back: D enthusiasm in the east, R enthusiasm in the west.


As a peculiar side note, apparently Iowa votes so far are like D+21? I can't help but think there must be some kind of error, because that just seems impossible to me. For comparison it was D+5 at the same point in 2018 and at D+9 at the same point in 2020.

I think NV is still up for debate. Early in person ends tomorrow, while we get mail-in ballots for the next week, so what will be interesting is what the D total is on Election Day, since you're gonna have at least 4 days (Sat, Sun, Mon, Tue) of only mail-in ballots contributing to the "early vote" total (the one that had D+47k in 2018)

Iowa seems wonky where it's possible you just have a ton of Ds that are voting by mail this year? The total is only like 250k, so it's a pretty low # still compared to the whole total.

[Minnesota Mike]

... Iowa seems wonky where it's possible you just have a ton of Ds that are voting by mail this year? The total is only like 250k, so it's a pretty low # still compared to the whole total.

For whatever reason Dems always dominate early voting in Iowa. It has not had much predictive power in the past.

BTW the absentee vote in Iowa includes in person early voting. Voters technically request, fill out and return an absentee ballot all in one stop. That is why Iowa's absentee return rates are so high.

[Hope For A New Era]

I think NV is still up for debate. Early in person ends tomorrow, while we get mail-in ballots for the next week, so what will be interesting is what the D total is on Election Day, since you're gonna have at least 4 days (Sat, Sun, Mon, Tue) of only mail-in ballots contributing to the "early vote" total (the one that had D+47k in 2018)

Do not give me false hope.
As far as I'm concerned Nevada is now an R-flip-in-waiting. I've accepted it now, and if we somehow end up in the unlikely scenario of it not happening, I'll be that much happier.

Iowa seems wonky where it's possible you just have a ton of Ds that are voting by mail this year? The total is only like 250k, so it's a pretty low # still compared to the whole total.

Why though? Why would a ton of voters of one party in one state vote by mail this year while nothing like that is happening anywhere else? It really seems like it must be either some kind of data error or a stunning upset on the way, and as much as it saddens me to say it, I hope I don't have to spell out which one of those two possibilities is more likely.

[wbrocks67]

Haha look, Nevada may totally fall. But from a data perspective, Ralston is acting like if Dems won't hit 47K by *tomorrow* then it's totally off from 2018, which completely disregards that a huge factor in the early vote is mail, which is allowed to come in for *another week*

Just saying, if the #s happen to go as they are, the total EV could be like D+40,000 by Tuesday morning since we're gonna have 4 mail-only dumps that are going to pad Dems margins.

Also, it still feels ilke Dems being +3% in Washoe at this point is a pretty good sign, no? What was the final EV in Washoe in 2018?

[It’s so Joever]

Don't worry guys, there definitely will be 20,000 votes by mail that magically appear in Clark County...yes totally

[wbrocks67]

Don't worry guys, there definitely will be 20,000 votes by mail that magically appear in Clark County...yes totally

I'm not saying there will be... but you literally said this the other day and then late in the day... they did. Who knows what the hell is going on with the mail there.