Early Voting thread.

[Unelectable Bystander]

@Unelectable Bystander,
I think Ohio & North Carolina is locked in for Republicans too.

The current D-R Spread in Ohio is 45-41 and in North Carolina if you believe the NC State Board of Elections it's 39-31 D-R down from 43-27 D-R in 2020.

The LAZY North Carolina Republican Party trends to get their Early Voters more out during the Final Week of EV.

I am pretty comfortable that those Spreads in OH & NC are not good enough to safe Tim Ryan and Cheri Beasley.

You keep saying this; it's not true. The final EV (in person + mail) was D+5, 37-32 in 2020

Both are right, it’s just different metrics. They’re not quite at what D’s finished 2020 with, but they are on pace if the pattern holds.

[soundchaser]

RALSTON HAS RURALS

He doesn’t think they’re enough to outpace the Clark freiwal yet.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

TX Day 4 EV Update:

Republican Primary voters - 47%
Democratic Primary voters - 32%
Voters with no primary election history - 21%

[wbrocks67]

@Unelectable Bystander,
I think Ohio & North Carolina is locked in for Republicans too.

The current D-R Spread in Ohio is 45-41 and in North Carolina if you believe the NC State Board of Elections it's 39-31 D-R down from 43-27 D-R in 2020.

The LAZY North Carolina Republican Party trends to get their Early Voters more out during the Final Week of EV.

I am pretty comfortable that those Spreads in OH & NC are not good enough to safe Tim Ryan and Cheri Beasley.

You keep saying this; it's not true. The final EV (in person + mail) was D+5, 37-32 in 2020

Both are right, it’s just different metrics. They’re not quite at what D’s finished 2020 with, but they are on pace if the pattern holds.

Huh? There's only one factual # here - it's the D+5 final. Where is the 43-27 coming from?

[Unelectable Bystander]

@Unelectable Bystander,
I think Ohio & North Carolina is locked in for Republicans too.

The current D-R Spread in Ohio is 45-41 and in North Carolina if you believe the NC State Board of Elections it's 39-31 D-R down from 43-27 D-R in 2020.

The LAZY North Carolina Republican Party trends to get their Early Voters more out during the Final Week of EV.

I am pretty comfortable that those Spreads in OH & NC are not good enough to safe Tim Ryan and Cheri Beasley.

You keep saying this; it's not true. The final EV (in person + mail) was D+5, 37-32 in 2020

Both are right, it’s just different metrics. They’re not quite at what D’s finished 2020 with, but they are on pace if the pattern holds.

Huh? There's only one factual # here - it's the D+5 final. Where is the 43-27 coming from?

That was their lead with 11 days to go. It implies that republicans will gain between then and Election Day. Not a guarantee, but that was the 2020 pattern

[Adam Griffin]

Day 12 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 150,815 voters cast ballots Friday, for a grand total of 1,533,675 votes.

Friday's batch was less white and less black than Thursday's, with the other 3 groupings gaining ground. Slightly less female than Thursday as well. Total vote drops below 30% black for the first time this cycle.

Breakdown of Friday's voters:

Code:

91263 	White	60.51%
39208 	Black	26.00%
2884         Asian	1.91%
2807 	Latino	1.86%
14653 	Other	9.72%

84217	Female	55.84%
66169 	Male	        43.87%	
429          Other         0.29%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

886555	White	57.81%
459450	Black	29.96%
24514	Asian	1.60%
23892       Latino	1.56%
139264	Other	9.07%

843330	Female	54.99%
687395	Male	        44.82%	
2950	        Other	0.19%

[UncleSam]

Day 12 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 150,815 voters cast ballots Friday, for a grand total of 1,533,675 votes.

Friday's batch was less white and less black than Thursday's, with the other 3 groupings gaining ground. Slightly less female than Thursday as well. Total vote drops below 30% black for the first time this cycle.

Breakdown of Friday's voters:

Code:

91263 	White	60.51%
39208 	Black	26.00%
2884         Asian	1.91%
2807 	Latino	1.86%
14653 	Other	9.72%

84217	Female	55.84%
66169 	Male	        43.87%	
429          Other         0.29%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

886555	White	57.81%
459450	Black	29.96%
24514	Asian	1.60%
23892       Latino	1.56%
139264	Other	9.07%

843330	Female	54.99%
687395	Male	        44.82%	
2950	        Other	0.19%

Any chance somebody has the corresponding numbers for Day 12 in 2020? I know someone posted the numbers for the runoff at some point but those aren't quite as comparable (though still appreciated as a point of reference!).

[Adam Griffin]

Any chance somebody has the corresponding numbers for Day 12 in 2020? I know someone posted the numbers for the runoff at some point but those aren't quite as comparable (though still appreciated as a point of reference!).

I have the data - but only for in-person votes cast in those elections.

*Obviously that likely has a big impact on the 2020 figures given the sheer number of people who cast ballots by mail each day during that election (26% of the final statewide vote), and the fact that those ballots were skewed heavily-Democratic.

The figures for 2018 would be much more in line given that the percentage of votes cast by mail in that election (6%) is very close to the current figures for 2022 (9%):

2020*: 62.2% White, 23.0% Black
2018: 61.7% White, 27.2% Black

The white-black margin for 2018 Day 12 is identical down to the tenth (34.5 points) - though again, even the 2018 figures omit the relative handful of votes cast by mail that day.


EDIT: I found my update for Day 12 in 2020, but I didn't do breakdowns by race. 24% of all votes received on Day 12 (which in reality was Day 11 in 2020, as we only had 1 day of Saturday EV statewide in 2020 - today's) were mail ballots.

Georgia, Final Friday Update:, 214,549 votes were cast on Friday.

This includes 163,820 in-person votes and 50,729 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,625,250 in-person & 919,703 by mail, for a grand total of 2,544,953 (61.10% of 2016 total vote).

[bilaps]

Washoe 3,5k dems, 3,4 reps. Total +1400 dems. Percentages 41,0 vs 38,2. If I'm republican in Nevada, I sure hope election day turnout is going to be huge

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Washoe 3,5k dems, 3,4 reps. Total +1400 dems. Percentages 41,0 vs 38,2. If I'm republican in Nevada, I sure hope election day turnout is going to be huge

Doesn't the universal mail-ins make that harder?

[Skill and Chance]

Washoe 3,5k dems, 3,4 reps. Total +1400 dems. Percentages 41,0 vs 38,2. If I'm republican in Nevada, I sure hope election day turnout is going to be huge

Doesn't the universal mail-ins make that harder?

In this case, what is meant by election day turnout?  Handing them in?

[wbrocks67]

Was curious what Washington was looking like on TargetSmart, since they don't have party reg. Their comparison to 2018 has about the same votes as 2022 does now, and both 'estimated' leads are D+16. I have no idea if their model is correct or not, but I was curious given the polls being all over the place there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am pumped and excited they say 47/35 overalls Ds outvote Rs early voting that's not a red wave 🎃🎃🎃

That's a 303 with wave insurance I can make an R nut map but what if my Fav candidates win, no I am a Secularist not an R and don't care if I get R wins wrong

[soundchaser]

Ralston’s summation of where things stand in Nevada right now:

“Bottom line: I think the Dems have reason to be happy because these do not look at all like red wave numbers after a week. But Repubs also must be content that after a week, the mail is not as voluminous as 2020 and the Dem margins also are not as great. That is: It’s close.”

(My hunch is mail is moving very slowly this cycle and things will look better for Dems next week, but it being close at all is perfectly unsurprising.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ralston’s summation of where things stand in Nevada right now:

“Bottom line: I think the Dems have reason to be happy because these do not look at all like red wave numbers after a week. But Repubs also must be content that after a week, the mail is not as voluminous as 2020 and the Dem margins also are not as great. That is: It’s close.”

(My hunch is mail is moving very slowly this cycle and things will look better for Dems next week, but it being close at all is perfectly unsurprising.)

Ds outnumbering Rs in Early voting anyways 47/35 except for FL which DeSantis is gonna win anyways, but I am not gonna believe it until he is declared the winner along with Vance, it's a 303 map we're not losing WI, PA and GA neither or AZ or NV

[Unelectable Bystander]

There are two things right now that could use some further explanation:

A) What’s causing the difference between the modeled early vote and the peripheral numbers? Target smart has the modeled vote overall similar to 2020, except every Republican demographic is up by at least 2-3%. Whites, rural voters, men, married voters, older voters, and even registered republicans are all significantly increasing their share of the early vote. In Georgia for example, the top 10 turnout counties are all rural, yet the modeled vote is very democrat friendly. The map above is a good graphic showing this. What gives?

I’d like to say that the models are bad, but if that’s the case then it was probably equally bad in 2020. There has to be a different explanation. Are democrats with republican-leaning demographics disproportionately voting, and vice versa?

B) there’s a lot of discussion on RV vs LV. If there is a democratic turnout boost from Dobbs, would we be seeing it now or will they show up on Election Day? Was there precedence for an Election Day surge in the specials where Dems performed well?

Has anybody seen anything on these topics? If not, would there be interest in researching them? Recommend if so.

I did some preliminary research into these.

A) I still don’t see a clear answer on this. One idea was to look at it by county vs overall turnout, to see if there’s anything obvious. For example, when we say “suburban”, are the more D-leaning counties turning out more than the R-leaning ones? So far I’ve looked at Ohio. Relative to the state:
3 C’s: Cuyohoga is near the state average, the other two are lagging far behind (this was surprising to me)
Trumbull and Lorain: Monster turnout so far. I think one of them is even approaching 2020 pace, while the state average is about 30% of 2020 EV.
Lucas: Around average
Warren/Butler: Very strong
Delaware: Around average

Nothing there answers the question for me on why the model has R’s underperforming. Hopefully more to come on other states.

B) Unfortunately, I don’t think that Kansas has results by vote method. This would have been very informative.

I was able to find results for Nebraska. They do not have vote method by party, but they have it broken out by county. Remember that most of the counties actually swung right here. The big difference was that Lancaster shifted slightly left while accounting for more vote share. My idea was to compare Lancaster to the random rurals which swung right. Did Lancaster have a huge jump in election day votes compared to the others?

The average rural county voted maybe 50-60% E-day in 2020, jumped to around 80% in the 2022 primary, then dropped slightly to around 75% for the special.

Lancaster was about 45% E-day in 2020, 50% in the primary, and 55% for the special. So there was a jump from the primary to the special in Lancaster compared to the others, but not really a disproportional jump from 2020 to the special.

Based on this, I don’t think I can prove or disprove a “hidden” Election Day Dem vote after Dobbs. I’m hoping to look at New York eventually also.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1586347489128419328

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1586312003722756101

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1586312003722756101

Yeah, folks better mentally prepare themselves for Dr. Oz to be up by 30 points on election night.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1586312003722756101

Yeah, folks better mentally prepare themselves for Dr. Oz to be up by 30 points on election night.

It won't be *as* bad because we only half about half mail-in this year as we did in 2020, but yeah, there will still be a considerable red mirage on election night.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Will even Mastriano lead on Election Night?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Will even Mastriano lead on Election Night?

Yep. He'll probably declare victory then, too.

It will then be funny when he loses by 10 points.

[wbrocks67]

Will even Mastriano lead on Election Night?

He may, I think Trump led as much as like 14% on election night? (with quite a few votes in)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Will even Mastriano lead on Election Night?

Yep. He'll probably declare victory then, too.

It will then be funny when he loses by 10 points.

It'll be funny but the insufferable Doomer takes here will not be. We should tempban SnowLabrador, The Trump Virus, MillennialModerate and GoTfan in the interim.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1586312003722756101

Yeah, folks better mentally prepare themselves for Dr. Oz to be up by 30 points on election night.

Other folks better prepare themselves when all the mail-in ballots are counted and it ends with Fetterman winning by 2% so they can claim it's another stolen election