Early Voting thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What does the early vote tell us about this year’s midterm election?

Many people are voting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Turnout continues to run below 2018 levels in Texas

Didn't Texas make it harder to vote early this year, or am I misremembering?

[soundchaser]

What does the early vote tell us about this year’s midterm election?

Many people are voting.

Except where they aren't.

[pantsaregood]

What does the early vote tell us about this year’s midterm election?

Many people are voting.

Except where they aren't.

*There exists at least one person who is voting.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia

Day 11 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 127,087 voters cast ballots Thursday, for a grand total of 1,382,860 votes.

Similar trends compared to Wednesday, albeit a larger drop-off in whites & greater increase in black and other non-white vote. White margin among the total electorate increased by 0.7 points (compared to 1.1 points between Tuesday & Wednesday).

If history is any indicator, then we're likely reaching the zenith of white EV share - typically the second week of EV is the strongest among white voters, while black voters post their best turnout rates in Weeks 1 & 3.

Breakdown of Thursday's voters:

Code:

77333 	White	60.85%
33636 	Black	26.47%
2261         Asian	1.78%
2060 	Latino	1.62%
11797 	Other	9.28%

71802	Female	56.50%
55058 	Male	        43.32%	
227          Other         0.18%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

795292	White	57.51%
420242	Black	30.39%
21630	Asian	1.56%
21085       Latino	1.52%
124611	Other	9.02%

759123	Female	54.90%
621226	Male	        44.92%	
2511	        Other	0.18%

[Tekken_Guy]

Another Ralston update. Dems appear to be doing well in the competitive NV house races so far.

Dems will be in for a rude awakening as more votes come in and a tidal wave sweeps over on the 8th.

[Hollywood]

Another Ralston update. Dems appear to be doing well in the competitive NV house races so far.

Dems will be in for a rude awakening as more votes come in and a tidal wave sweeps over on the 8th.

I'm not celebrating just yet, but I'm getting close. The last two weeks were amazing for Republicans.
Every Democrat I watched debate came off like an @$$clown (Hobbs, Hochul, Fetterman, Demings).  Even the media looked real stupid concocted excuses for Democrats, especially Fetterman.  It's not a good thing when Democrats defend John Fetterman's performance by claiming he was too mentally impaired to string a single sentence together.

[soundchaser]

Another Ralston update. Dems appear to be doing well in the competitive NV house races so far.

Dems will be in for a rude awakening as more votes come in and a tidal wave sweeps over on the 8th.

Not sure what you’re basing this on. If anything, the Dem vote in Nevada should continue to build over the next week and a half.

[Tekken_Guy]

Another Ralston update. Dems appear to be doing well in the competitive NV house races so far.

Dems will be in for a rude awakening as more votes come in and a tidal wave sweeps over on the 8th.

Not sure what you’re basing this on. If anything, the Dem vote in Nevada should continue to build over the next week and a half.

I don’t think they’ll be able to withstand the beating they’re going to be taking with indies or the defections we’ll see with many working class Hispanics.

[soundchaser]

Another Ralston update. Dems appear to be doing well in the competitive NV house races so far.

Dems will be in for a rude awakening as more votes come in and a tidal wave sweeps over on the 8th.

Not sure what you’re basing this on. If anything, the Dem vote in Nevada should continue to build over the next week and a half.

I don’t think they’ll be able to withstand the beating they’re going to be taking with indies or the defections we’ll see with many working class Hispanics.

Check out Ralston’s models. Indies are going to have to break VERY hard for Republicans if the firewall stays where it is, percentage-wise. I don’t see it happening, but I could be wrong.

[Tekken_Guy]

Another Ralston update. Dems appear to be doing well in the competitive NV house races so far.

Dems will be in for a rude awakening as more votes come in and a tidal wave sweeps over on the 8th.

Not sure what you’re basing this on. If anything, the Dem vote in Nevada should continue to build over the next week and a half.

I don’t think they’ll be able to withstand the beating they’re going to be taking with indies or the defections we’ll see with many working class Hispanics.

Check out Ralston’s models. Indies are going to have to break VERY hard for Republicans if the firewall stays where it is, percentage-wise. I don’t see it happening, but I could be wrong.

I have a feeling a lot of registered Dems are going to be crossing over this year.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Wisconsin doesn’t have party registration, but so far their early vote is much stronger than 2018, and even more heavily femaie (and much more female than 2020):

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22gender%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=WI&view_type=state

[The Mikado]

Turnout continues to run below 2018 levels in Texas

Didn't Texas make it harder to vote early this year, or am I misremembering?

TX went back to two weeks of EV (like in 2018) rather than three weeks (like in 2020).

[Dani Rose]

Wisconsin doesn’t have party registration, but so far their early vote is much stronger than 2018, and even more heavily femaie (and much more female than 2020):

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22gender%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=WI&view_type=state

I'm posting from the throes of insomnia just for the sake of fervently praying this into reality and that it means what I hope it means.

Please, cheeseheads. Please.  

[bilaps]

Republicans gaining 1800 votes IP in Clark, but still waiting for mail update.

In Washoe, total is net gain of 90 votes for Dems. Still a 1348 vote lead in total. Percentages little better for Rs but still Dems lead 41,2 vs 38,1.

In total, if trend continues for Dems in Clark that mail vote is so big in the same margin with leading in Washoe as well, it's good news for them. Republicans could offset this with big turnout on election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said many times the polls underestimate the blk vote not the gender gap the Rs never closes the racial gap they close the gender gap like Trump did with Biden in OH but there is still a racial gap with Ryan and Vance and he's not getting all the female vote that Trump gotten either that's why it's called voting and we won upsets, the only upset was VA and it was by 2 we won AK and NY 19

That's why Steve Konraki said don't give up on Ds especially in OH, WI, PA, NC and FL Senate until all the races are CALLED

[bilaps]

Mail came in Clark. 28k votes, Dems netted more than 6k.

Now total vote in Clark is +17k Dems. 10,3% advantage over Republicans

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1585959269404327936

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1585959269404327936

So yet another way of saying "we can't extrapolate a lot of meaningful information from early voting in Nevahhda."

[bilaps]

Repubs now +32k in Florida. 2.1mn have voted

[2016]

OH & NC are looking good as well.

Consider this: In 2020 in NC the D-R Spread of the EV was 43-27. This year it's 39-31 and Republicans in NC if they vote early usually do that in the Final Week before E-Day.

I dunno what the Polls in OH are cooking. Ryan isn't ahead.

[2016]

Repubs now +32k in Florida. 2.1mn have voted

Yeah, I think FL barring a Major Surge for D's is locked up for Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1585982103094640644

[Eraserhead]

Repubs now +32k in Florida. 2.1mn have voted

Yeah, I think FL barring a Major Surge for D's is locked up for Republicans.

I'm not sure that anyone has thought Florida could be seriously competitive in months.

[wbrocks67]

OH & NC are looking good as well.

Consider this: In 2020 in NC the D-R Spread of the EV was 43-27. This year it's 39-31 and Republicans in NC if they vote early usually do that in the Final Week before E-Day.

I dunno what the Polls in OH are cooking. Ryan isn't ahead.

The total early vote (in person + mail) in NC was D 37-32 in 2020

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html