Early Voting thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's politics blog:

Democrats fire up ground game as early voting surges

Early voting continues to soar in Georgia, with data indicating that higher proportions of Black voters are casting ballots so far than in the last two election cycles.

One reason behind the rising totals is a coalition of grassroots organizations that styles itself as the “closers” of election cycles.

The coalition, under the umbrella of the left-leaning America Votes Georgia, has knocked more than 1.3 million doors in key districts. They and their allies are what Gov. Brian Kemp refers to when he says Republicans are playing catch-up to the Democrats’ robust pre-election ground game.

[It’s so Joever]

From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's politics blog:

Democrats fire up ground game as early voting surges

Early voting continues to soar in Georgia, with data indicating that higher proportions of Black voters are casting ballots so far than in the last two election cycles.

One reason behind the rising totals is a coalition of grassroots organizations that styles itself as the “closers” of election cycles.

The coalition, under the umbrella of the left-leaning America Votes Georgia, has knocked more than 1.3 million doors in key districts. They and their allies are what Gov. Brian Kemp refers to when he says Republicans are playing catch-up to the Democrats’ robust pre-election ground game.

Low key almost reminds me of Nevada in the early 2010s with the Reid Machine.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 4,906,606 (+1,255k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 17,109,643 39,309,649(+22,220k)

[BenjiG98]

TargetSmart has a handy visualization of ballot returns.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022

Compared to this same point out in 2020, Democrats are actually doing 3.6% better in terms of returned ballots

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota update:
Applications submitted (10/20/22): 467,902
Accepted ballots (10/20/22): 172,520

37.22% from Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

TargetSmart has a handy visualization of ballot returns.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022

Compared to this same point out in 2020, Democrats are actually doing 3.6% better in terms of returned ballots

Yeah. 2020 was D+2/3 and 2022 is supposed to be R+5-7 so the Republicans shouldn't be down by this much.

[Lief 🗽]

Georgia is looking grim.
https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1583180701217984512?s=21&t=aqKKZz5SipC...

[BenjiG98]

What the hell is with all the dooming? One datum means nothing one way or the other. Get a grip, Christ.

[Brittain33]

Georgia is looking grim.
https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1583180701217984512?s=21&t=aqKKZz5SipC...

The same exact drop happened in 2018 and 2020 if I read the comments and the graphs posted correctly. In no sense is this “grim.”

[UncleSam]

Georgia is looking grim.
https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1583180701217984512?s=21&t=aqKKZz5SipC...

The same exact drop happened in 2018 and 2020 if I read the comments and the graphs posted correctly. In no sense is this “grim.”

What did this end up at? I feel like I keep seeing numbers with no reference of comparison.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Georgia is looking grim.
https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1583180701217984512?s=21&t=aqKKZz5SipC...

The same exact drop happened in 2018 and 2020 if I read the comments and the graphs posted correctly. In no sense is this “grim.”

What did this end up at? I feel like I keep seeing numbers with no reference of comparison.

That target smart graphic says that the early vote ended up right around 30% in 2020. They somehow have it at 37% right now though.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Georgia is looking grim.
https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1583180701217984512?s=21&t=aqKKZz5SipC...

The same exact drop happened in 2018 and 2020 if I read the comments and the graphs posted correctly. In no sense is this “grim.”

It can't be a bad sign the Dems are in line with 2020 numbers, either.

[Minnesota Mike]

Georgia is looking grim.
https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1583180701217984512?s=21&t=aqKKZz5SipC...

The same exact drop happened in 2018 and 2020 if I read the comments and the graphs posted correctly. In no sense is this “grim.”

What did this end up at? I feel like I keep seeing numbers with no reference of comparison.

According to Michael McDonald's 2020 early vote tracker the Georgia total Non-Hispanic Black early vote (absentee + in person) was 27.7% in the general and 30.9% in the senate runoffs.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Unless the downward daily trend continues for awhile I don't see what the cause for concern for Democrats is.

[wbrocks67]

Georgia is looking grim.
https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1583180701217984512?s=21&t=aqKKZz5SipC...

If you're not gonna even interpret results correctly, please just stay out of this thread. Not to mention I can't even with JMC saying "plunging", yet not surprised, since he always tries to concoct some type of GOP-friendly narrative.

The black share is not going to stay at 38% every single day. The runoff share after 500K votes was about 33% black, and it looks like with todays update, we'll settle right around 33%, which bolds pretty damn well for Democrats.

People need to stop trolling.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Georgia was 32.3% black as of the last census and probably smaller than that in terms of VAP%. So that means black turnout was higher than the state numbers for two days and only slightly lower the third.... that's not grim at all.

[wbrocks67]

Georgia was 32.3% black as of the last census and probably smaller than that in terms of VAP%. So that means black turnout was higher than the state numbers for two days and only slightly lower the third.... that's not grim at all.

Especially when Joe Biden won in 2020 when the final black % was 27.7%, and Dems won by 2% in 2021 when it was 30.9%.

[wbrocks67]

518,000+ in 4 days

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1583247370027835392

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Georgia was 32.3% black as of the last census and probably smaller than that in terms of VAP%. So that means black turnout was higher than the state numbers for two days and only slightly lower the third.... that's not grim at all.

Folks are forgetting about "Souls to the Polls". It's very normal for Black turnout to plummet on weekdays. What happens is that when "Souls to the Polls" drops, Black turnout ends up being insane.

[wbrocks67]

Georgia was 32.3% black as of the last census and probably smaller than that in terms of VAP%. So that means black turnout was higher than the state numbers for two days and only slightly lower the third.... that's not grim at all.

Folks are forgetting about "Souls to the Polls". It's very normal for Black turnout to plummet on weekdays. What happens is that when "Souls to the Polls" drops, Black turnout ends up being insane.

Also, it's not that hard to think that black turnout may have been the largest on the *very first day of voting*. People are really trying way too hard to find some type of narrative here that doesn't even exist.

[wbrocks67]

GA update - another 140K early votes + mail-in votes counted today.

GA 2020
Total EV (Mail + in person): 4.01M (56.5% white - 27.7% black) —> +28.8 white

GA 2021
Total EV (mail + in-person): 3.15M (55.5% white - 30.9% black) —> +24.6 white

GA 2022
Total EV (mail + in person): 574K (55.3% white - 33.4% black) —> +21.9 white

For reference, this is how the total early vote for the runoff progressed

12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white

[Brittain33]

This link has interactive charts for this and the past two elections.

https://www.georgiavotes.com/graphs.php

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The fact that the Black % outpaces previous years and we still haven't had Souls To The Polls Sunday yet.

[bilaps]

Has anyune thought that there are two black candidates on the ballot this year or you automatically assume there are no black voters who will choose Walker?

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1583406389522595840

[bilaps]

FL now at over 1m mail ballots submitted.

Dems at 38k lead (was at 34k yesterday), 42% dems 38,3 reps

Not great for Dems