IN-SEN 2024: Money in the Banks

[oldtimer]

In the last week or so it has become increasingly likely that Daniels will jump in. It will be a tough race but I don’t see how Banks can prevail. We’ve seen that Trump endorsements aren’t enough against popular republicans and Mitch Daniels is probably the most popular and consequential political figure of the 21st century in Indiana.

Why not the most consequencial figure for the next 1000 years ?

Aside from the humourous hyperbole, it will either go like Coats or like Bayh.

I don't rate Daniels's chances high.
This is a Senate election which is more ideologically polarized than a Governor's one, there might be too many conservatives in the Indiana GOP for Daniels to win.

[oldtimer]

In the last week or so it has become increasingly likely that Daniels will jump in. It will be a tough race but I don’t see how Banks can prevail. We’ve seen that Trump endorsements aren’t enough against popular republicans and Mitch Daniels is probably the most popular and consequential political figure of the 21st century in Indiana.

Why not the most consequencial figure for the next 1000 years ?

Aside from the humourous hyperbole, it will either go like Coats or like Bayh.

I don't rate Daniels's chances high.
This is a Senate election which is more ideologically polarized than a Governor's one, there might be too many conservatives in the Indiana GOP for Daniels to win.

Indiana has plurality primaries, so Daniel’s best hope is the extra conservatives splinter the vote

It's also not 2009 anymore, even Lugar lost his primary in 2012 getting just under 40% as an incumbent.

Daniels's strategy also sounds like the failed NeverTrump's of Ohio and Pennsylvania whose local GOPs are less conservative than Indiana's.

Indiana looks currently like a bad fit for someone like Daniels, he should run in Illinois.

[oldtimer]

Why is the party coalescing around Banks so early? This is a safe R seat and there’s no worries about electability. How do you think Rokita or Spartz feel about being thrown under the bus.

Why wouldn't they ?

Banks will probably follow the party line, so why risk it with a messy primary ?

[oldtimer]

Disappointing as he’s a great guy who would’ve been a net positive, but continues the trend from 2022 of the highest-tier Republican recruits not running simply out of contempt for the idea of being in the Senate.

They are not running mostly because they don't think they could win the primary.

And even if they did they would have to spend 6 years of vitriol from their own voters, because they would vote for liberal legislation, omnibuses, bipartisan deals, ect.

Things that voters see as betrayal if they belong to the opposition party.

So why ruin their reputation ?