IN-SEN 2024: Money in the Banks

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/22/mike-braun-likely-running-for-indiana-governor-in-2024-00058350

Indiana Sen. Mike Braun is leaning toward running for governor in 2024, a move that would open up a GOP-held seat in what’s become a reliably red state, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The loquacious first-term senator said on Thursday that he’s not making an official statement at this point.


“Where’d you hear that? I’ll make my mind up here down the road, probably before the end of the year. I’ve been talking about it though since I’ve got here,” Braun said in a brief interview. “I’ll make a formal announcement somewhere probably late November, early December.”


Indy Politics reported on Thursday that Braun is informing Republicans in the state about his plans to run for governor and that he will announce after the midterm election, a move typical of lawmakers who are eyeing new offices. Braun’s office declined further comment.

Should Braun take the plunge, I'd expect a crowded GOP primary for the seat. Don't completely rule out Mike Pence passing on a Presidential bid to return to Indiana and run for Senate either.

For the Democrats, I bet Pete Buttigieg is kicking himself over moving to Michigan right now. Here's a likely open seat, a Democratic Primary field that would clear for him if he ran (which is probably not true in Michigan), and depending on the GOP nominee/political environment, a plausible pickup for Democrats too.

[Kleine Scheiße]

Its over

[Calthrina950]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/22/mike-braun-likely-running-for-indiana-governor-in-2024-00058350

Indiana Sen. Mike Braun is leaning toward running for governor in 2024, a move that would open up a GOP-held seat in what’s become a reliably red state, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The loquacious first-term senator said on Thursday that he’s not making an official statement at this point.


“Where’d you hear that? I’ll make my mind up here down the road, probably before the end of the year. I’ve been talking about it though since I’ve got here,” Braun said in a brief interview. “I’ll make a formal announcement somewhere probably late November, early December.”


Indy Politics reported on Thursday that Braun is informing Republicans in the state about his plans to run for governor and that he will announce after the midterm election, a move typical of lawmakers who are eyeing new offices. Braun’s office declined further comment.

Should Braun take the plunge, I'd expect a crowded GOP primary for the seat. Don't completely rule out Mike Pence passing on a Presidential bid to return to Indiana and run for Senate either.

For the Democrats, I bet Pete Buttigieg is kicking himself over moving to Michigan right now. Here's a likely open seat, a Democratic Primary field that would clear for him if he ran (which is probably not true in Michigan), and depending on the GOP nominee/political environment, a plausible pickup for Democrats too.

Indiana is now unwinnable for Democrats at the federal level. Even Richard Mourdock would probably win there now. Buttigieg himself is not highly regarded in Indiana, and the only previous time that he ran for statewide office there - in 2010, ironically against Mourdock - he lost by more than 20%. Buttigieg knows that his electoral prospects in his home state are poor, and that is probably a reason why he moved to Michigan, a state where he might have a chance at winning political office.

[JMT]

Interesting. If Braun goes for Governor, that gives Eric Holcomb an opening to remain in office as well. Holcomb and Braun could attempt to swap offices by running for each other’s seats. Holcomb likely has some interest in running for Senate, given that he briefly ran for Senate in 2016 before dropping out.

Braun could theoretically clear the field for Governor, as other Republicans considering a Gubernatorial run may find it easier to run for an open Senate seat. While Holcomb would be a strong contender for Senate, I don’t think he’d clear the field. Candidate(s) could try to run to Holcomb’s right; the Libertarian candidate for Governor in 2020 got 11% of the vote, and Holcomb is not enormously popular (but he’s also not unpopular, so he would stand a chance especially in a crowded field).

As for Democrats, this race (and the race for Governor) will not be competitive, even if a high profile candidate like Buttigieg were to run. Indiana is too conservative nowadays, and if Evan Bayh and Joe Donnelly couldn’t win, no Democrat can.

[Pollster]

Maybe Dr. Oz can move here next.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It would take some pretty insane circumstances for this seat to be competitive. Safe R until proven otherwise.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/22/mike-braun-likely-running-for-indiana-governor-in-2024-00058350

Indiana Sen. Mike Braun is leaning toward running for governor in 2024, a move that would open up a GOP-held seat in what’s become a reliably red state, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The loquacious first-term senator said on Thursday that he’s not making an official statement at this point.


“Where’d you hear that? I’ll make my mind up here down the road, probably before the end of the year. I’ve been talking about it though since I’ve got here,” Braun said in a brief interview. “I’ll make a formal announcement somewhere probably late November, early December.”


Indy Politics reported on Thursday that Braun is informing Republicans in the state about his plans to run for governor and that he will announce after the midterm election, a move typical of lawmakers who are eyeing new offices. Braun’s office declined further comment.

Should Braun take the plunge, I'd expect a crowded GOP primary for the seat. Don't completely rule out Mike Pence passing on a Presidential bid to return to Indiana and run for Senate either.

For the Democrats, I bet Pete Buttigieg is kicking himself over moving to Michigan right now. Here's a likely open seat, a Democratic Primary field that would clear for him if he ran (which is probably not true in Michigan), and depending on the GOP nominee/political environment, a plausible pickup for Democrats too.

I think he's pretty content.

Maybe Dr. Oz can move here next.

That's the only way Buttigieg could win.

[SnowLabrador]

It's not happening for Democrats. Safe R. Even if polls show it as somewhat competitive, don't be fooled: Joe Donnelly was leading in the polling average in 2018 before losing to Mike Braun.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Sounds like someone doesn’t think Republicans are retaking control of the Senate.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/23/hoosier-free-for-all-spartz-eyes-senate-run-in-2024-as-braun-pursues-gov-race-00058598

Spartz will likely run for Senate if Braun goes for Governor.

[Spectator]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/22/mike-braun-likely-running-for-indiana-governor-in-2024-00058350

Indiana Sen. Mike Braun is leaning toward running for governor in 2024, a move that would open up a GOP-held seat in what’s become a reliably red state, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The loquacious first-term senator said on Thursday that he’s not making an official statement at this point.


“Where’d you hear that? I’ll make my mind up here down the road, probably before the end of the year. I’ve been talking about it though since I’ve got here,” Braun said in a brief interview. “I’ll make a formal announcement somewhere probably late November, early December.”


Indy Politics reported on Thursday that Braun is informing Republicans in the state about his plans to run for governor and that he will announce after the midterm election, a move typical of lawmakers who are eyeing new offices. Braun’s office declined further comment.

Should Braun take the plunge, I'd expect a crowded GOP primary for the seat. Don't completely rule out Mike Pence passing on a Presidential bid to return to Indiana and run for Senate either.

For the Democrats, I bet Pete Buttigieg is kicking himself over moving to Michigan right now. Here's a likely open seat, a Democratic Primary field that would clear for him if he ran (which is probably not true in Michigan), and depending on the GOP nominee/political environment, a plausible pickup for Democrats too.

Indiana is now unwinnable for Democrats at the federal level. Even Richard Mourdock would probably win there now. Buttigieg himself is not highly regarded in Indiana, and the only previous time that he ran for statewide office there - in 2010, ironically against Mourdock - he lost by more than 20%. Buttigieg knows that his electoral prospects in his home state are poor, and that is probably a reason why he moved to Michigan, a state where he might have a chance at winning political office.

Agreed with Indiana being unwinnable for Dems at the federal level. Statewide level I’m not so sure a Dem couldn’t win a Governor race under the right circumstances. As for Buttigieg running for something statewide in Michigan, that would be an excellent way to piss away a Senate or Governor seat to Republicans.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/22/mike-braun-likely-running-for-indiana-governor-in-2024-00058350

Indiana Sen. Mike Braun is leaning toward running for governor in 2024, a move that would open up a GOP-held seat in what’s become a reliably red state, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The loquacious first-term senator said on Thursday that he’s not making an official statement at this point.


“Where’d you hear that? I’ll make my mind up here down the road, probably before the end of the year. I’ve been talking about it though since I’ve got here,” Braun said in a brief interview. “I’ll make a formal announcement somewhere probably late November, early December.”


Indy Politics reported on Thursday that Braun is informing Republicans in the state about his plans to run for governor and that he will announce after the midterm election, a move typical of lawmakers who are eyeing new offices. Braun’s office declined further comment.

Should Braun take the plunge, I'd expect a crowded GOP primary for the seat. Don't completely rule out Mike Pence passing on a Presidential bid to return to Indiana and run for Senate either.

For the Democrats, I bet Pete Buttigieg is kicking himself over moving to Michigan right now. Here's a likely open seat, a Democratic Primary field that would clear for him if he ran (which is probably not true in Michigan), and depending on the GOP nominee/political environment, a plausible pickup for Democrats too.

Indiana is now unwinnable for Democrats at the federal level. Even Richard Mourdock would probably win there now. Buttigieg himself is not highly regarded in Indiana, and the only previous time that he ran for statewide office there - in 2010, ironically against Mourdock - he lost by more than 20%. Buttigieg knows that his electoral prospects in his home state are poor, and that is probably a reason why he moved to Michigan, a state where he might have a chance at winning political office.

Agreed with Indiana being unwinnable for Dems at the federal level. Statewide level I’m not so sure a Dem couldn’t win a Governor race under the right circumstances. As for Buttigieg running for something statewide in Michigan, that would be an excellent way to piss away a Senate or Governor seat to Republicans.

You're right. Michigan is a state where he might have a chance, but there is no guarantee that he would win. Assuming that he got through a primary, Buttigieg certainly would be in for a tough battle. A good Republican opponent could credibly attack him as a carpetbagger, and Buttigieg, as the primary showed, is not popular with, nor does he inspire enthusiasm among, black voters - who are a critical component of the Democratic coalition in Michigan.

[NewYorkExpress]

Sounds like someone doesn’t think Republicans are retaking control of the Senate.

Honestly, I think Braun just doesn't like being a Senator and would rather be Governor.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sounds like someone doesn’t think Republicans are retaking control of the Senate.

Honestly, I think Braun just doesn't like being a Senator and would rather be Governor.

McConnell basically hosts a hostile work environment in the Senate, and that is really handicapping the Republican Party, especially as it concerns recruitment, at least from what I perceive. Had he not made it such an agonizing place to work where a Senator has to be McConnell's flunky to do their job, maybe better candidates like Reschenthaler or Sununu would have run for the Senate this year instead of the dinguses they actually got.

[NewYorkExpress]

Sounds like someone doesn’t think Republicans are retaking control of the Senate.

Honestly, I think Braun just doesn't like being a Senator and would rather be Governor.

McConnell basically hosts a hostile work environment in the Senate, and that is really handicapping the Republican Party, especially as it concerns recruitment, at least from what I perceive. Had he not made it such an agonizing place to work where a Senator has to be McConnell's flunky to do their job, maybe better candidates like Reschenthaler or Sununu would have run for the Senate this year instead of the dinguses they actually got.

Might explain why Spartz is interested. Who else do you think will run for the Republicans? Greg Pence? Todd Rokita? Suzanne Crouch?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sounds like someone doesn’t think Republicans are retaking control of the Senate.

Honestly, I think Braun just doesn't like being a Senator and would rather be Governor.

McConnell basically hosts a hostile work environment in the Senate, and that is really handicapping the Republican Party, especially as it concerns recruitment, at least from what I perceive. Had he not made it such an agonizing place to work where a Senator has to be McConnell's flunky to do their job, maybe better candidates like Reschenthaler or Sununu would have run for the Senate this year instead of the dinguses they actually got.

Might explain why Spartz is interested. Who else do you think will run for the Republicans? Greg Pence? Todd Rokita? Suzanne Crouch?

I have no idea, it could be anyone. There is not a shortage of recruits for the GOP here. It all depends on whether they actually want to be Senator or not.

[Biden 2024]

Any way Mike Pence runs? Would be a smarter bet than a futile presidential campaign.

[2016]

If Democrats retain the Senate & House this year, Country goes into Recession. Then we are looking at a 1980 landslide for Republicans 2024.

I really hope should the Democrats retain Congress the Country does go into a Recession. This is the only way to get rid of these woke Democrats once and for all.

[SnowLabrador]

Any way Mike Pence runs? Would be a smarter bet than a futile presidential campaign.

Call me crazy, but I don't see it happening. Vice President to Senator is a pretty big step down. Plus I don't think he could win a primary after he certified the election.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/22/mike-braun-likely-running-for-indiana-governor-in-2024-00058350

Indiana Sen. Mike Braun is leaning toward running for governor in 2024, a move that would open up a GOP-held seat in what’s become a reliably red state, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The loquacious first-term senator said on Thursday that he’s not making an official statement at this point.


“Where’d you hear that? I’ll make my mind up here down the road, probably before the end of the year. I’ve been talking about it though since I’ve got here,” Braun said in a brief interview. “I’ll make a formal announcement somewhere probably late November, early December.”


Indy Politics reported on Thursday that Braun is informing Republicans in the state about his plans to run for governor and that he will announce after the midterm election, a move typical of lawmakers who are eyeing new offices. Braun’s office declined further comment.

Should Braun take the plunge, I'd expect a crowded GOP primary for the seat. Don't completely rule out Mike Pence passing on a Presidential bid to return to Indiana and run for Senate either.

For the Democrats, I bet Pete Buttigieg is kicking himself over moving to Michigan right now. Here's a likely open seat, a Democratic Primary field that would clear for him if he ran (which is probably not true in Michigan), and depending on the GOP nominee/political environment, a plausible pickup for Democrats too.

Indiana is now unwinnable for Democrats at the federal level. Even Richard Mourdock would probably win there now. Buttigieg himself is not highly regarded in Indiana, and the only previous time that he ran for statewide office there - in 2010, ironically against Mourdock - he lost by more than 20%. Buttigieg knows that his electoral prospects in his home state are poor, and that is probably a reason why he moved to Michigan, a state where he might have a chance at winning political office.

I absolutely agree. Buttigieg is hardly some political titan - he's not even been elected to any statewide office, just a local race for a local office! - and IN is now Safe Republican. No chance Buttigieg would win if he ran in IN.

That said, this is quite interesting - for a senator to want to run for governor. Typically, the converse is MUCH more common, and in cases where a senator chooses to run for governor (rather than the opposite), it's almost always in very populous states where being governor has quite an impact - states like TX and OH.

So Braun running for Governor would be quite interesting. Although it's worth noting that before being elected to the Senate, he had no Washington experience (serving in the Indiana Senate, and painting his two opponents in the GOP primary, Congressmen Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, as swamp/DC insiders indistinguishable from one another, and himself as an outsider businessman). Perhaps he's disenchanted/disillusioned by the Senate and has concluded it's not that good a job, and has figured being governor will be more impactful (and honestly, it's not like he's wrong, necessarily).

[Schiff for Senate]

Interesting. If Braun goes for Governor, that gives Eric Holcomb an opening to remain in office as well. Holcomb and Braun could attempt to swap offices by running for each other’s seats. Holcomb likely has some interest in running for Senate, given that he briefly ran for Senate in 2016 before dropping out.

Braun could theoretically clear the field for Governor, as other Republicans considering a Gubernatorial run may find it easier to run for an open Senate seat. While Holcomb would be a strong contender for Senate, I don’t think he’d clear the field. Candidate(s) could try to run to Holcomb’s right; the Libertarian candidate for Governor in 2020 got 11% of the vote, and Holcomb is not enormously popular (but he’s also not unpopular, so he would stand a chance especially in a crowded field).

As for Democrats, this race (and the race for Governor) will not be competitive, even if a high profile candidate like Buttigieg were to run. Indiana is too conservative nowadays, and if Evan Bayh and Joe Donnelly couldn’t win, no Democrat can.

I agree with this analysis. And the governor/senator swapping positions would be quite an interesting development (I am reminded of how in DE, which like many other states limits governors to two consecutive terms, two guys kept alternating between governor and representative and representative and governor).

EDIT: It was Mike Castle (R) and Tom Carper (D). And I remember incorrectly - they didn't *keep* switching, they only switched offices once - in 1992, Castle, who had served two terms as governor, was ineligible for a third term, ran for Carper's seat in Congress (Carper represented DE-AL from 1983-1993), and Carper ran for governor instead (winning, and serving from 1993 to 2001). And I also remembered DE's term limits incorrectly - it actually limits governors to two terms for life, not two terms consecutively (so Castle could not, after being elected in 1984 and 1988, run for governor of DE ever again, not in 1992, nor in any election after it).

[NewYorkExpress]

Any way Mike Pence runs? Would be a smarter bet than a futile presidential campaign.

Call me crazy, but I don't see it happening. Vice President to Senator is a pretty big step down. Plus I don't think he could win a primary after he certified the election.

Plus he wasn't that popular in Indiana to begin with. He would have lost his reelection campaign in 2016 if Trump hadn't put him on the ticket.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think it's highly possible Braun and Holcomb aim a job switch. The latter could just run for the senate seat here. He's still in his mid 50s.

[Senator Incitatus]

I think it's highly possible Braun and Holcomb aim a job switch. The latter could just run for the senate seat here. He's still in his mid 50s.

How many times has this happened? I know about the disastrous 1958 California attempt but that’s all.

[Bismarck]

I think it's highly possible Braun and Holcomb aim a job switch. The latter could just run for the senate seat here. He's still in his mid 50s.

That would be interesting. Holcomb did briefly enter the senate primary against Todd Young in 2016 before dropping to become Lt. Governor. I still would rather see Daniels run for governor though. Braun doesn’t seem to do much besides talk on Fox News.