How many Rs will be left in the CA State Senate after November?

[Хahar 🤔]

My guess is that Democrats pick up two seats. Obviously the Modesto/Sierra district is locked in as a Democratic gain, and the coastal district between Orange County and San Diego also looks very favorable considering that Democratic candidates got much more than 50% in the primary. The Escondido district is also a possible pickup opportunity (it's a Biden district), but I'm not expecting it. The only Republican opportunity is the Mexican district in the southern San Joaquin Valley; that's a seat that one would historically expect to elect a Republican, but the Democrat being an incumbent is enough for me to keep it in the Democratic column.

[Хahar 🤔]

This thread gave me flashbacks to when folks were all verklempt about California because it swung 2 points to Trump in 2020

I mean it's obviously not going to flip statewide, but especially when you consider that Harris was from CA, it's likely that 2018 was the Dem peak for the foreseeable future .

Why is that likely?