How many Rs will be left in the CA State Senate after November?
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  How many Rs will be left in the CA State Senate after November?
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
0
 
#2
1
 
#3
2
 
#4
3
 
#5
4
 
#6
5
 
#7
6
 
#8
7
 
#9
8
 
#10
9 (Current number)
 
#11
10+
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 11

Author Topic: How many Rs will be left in the CA State Senate after November?  (Read 658 times)
Pedocon Theory is not a theory
CalamityBlue
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« on: September 17, 2022, 03:35:38 PM »

Inspired by this tweet from Vance.

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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2022, 05:36:35 PM »

Still probably around 8 but it was funny how Rs got locked of the top two in SD-04 (a Trump district)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2022, 02:03:06 PM »

Still probably around 8 but it was funny how Rs got locked of the top two in SD-04 (a Trump district)

Are there any pick-up opportunities to make up for that?  CA is a place where I would expect stealth R gains at the district level this year. 
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2022, 02:24:22 PM »

Still probably around 8 but it was funny how Rs got locked of the top two in SD-04 (a Trump district)

Are there any pick-up opportunities to make up for that?  CA is a place where I would expect stealth R gains at the district level this year. 

Based on primary results, probably just the Central Valley district.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2022, 02:36:37 PM »
« Edited: September 18, 2022, 06:12:16 PM by Interlocutor »

This thread gave me flashbacks to when folks were all verklempt about California because it swung 2 0.8 points to Trump in 2020
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2022, 03:42:10 PM »

My guess is that Democrats pick up two seats. Obviously the Modesto/Sierra district is locked in as a Democratic gain, and the coastal district between Orange County and San Diego also looks very favorable considering that Democratic candidates got much more than 50% in the primary. The Escondido district is also a possible pickup opportunity (it's a Biden district), but I'm not expecting it. The only Republican opportunity is the Mexican district in the southern San Joaquin Valley; that's a seat that one would historically expect to elect a Republican, but the Democrat being an incumbent is enough for me to keep it in the Democratic column.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2022, 04:20:07 PM »

This thread gave me flashbacks to when folks were all verklempt about California because it swung 2 points to Trump in 2020

I mean it's obviously not going to flip statewide, but especially when you consider that Harris was from CA, it's likely that 2018 was the Dem peak for the foreseeable future .
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2022, 04:26:25 PM »

This thread gave me flashbacks to when folks were all verklempt about California because it swung 2 points to Trump in 2020

I mean it's obviously not going to flip statewide, but especially when you consider that Harris was from CA, it's likely that 2018 was the Dem peak for the foreseeable future .

Why is that likely?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2022, 06:00:24 PM »

This thread gave me flashbacks to when folks were all verklempt about California because it swung 2 points to Trump in 2020

I think that had more to do with the GOP flipping four House seats. It probably won't be long though until those are all gained back now.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2022, 06:38:44 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2022, 01:44:36 AM by Interlocutor »

This thread gave me flashbacks to when folks were all verklempt about California because it swung 2 points to Trump in 2020

I mean it's obviously not going to flip statewide, but especially when you consider that Harris was from CA, it's likely that 2018 was the Dem peak for the foreseeable future .

1. Harris wasn't even doing well in CA primary polls before she dropped out. I bet most folks didn't even know she was our Senator (Much like Padilla). The only statewide political figures that most CA voters know are Newsom & Feinstein.

2. It's just as likely Newsom improves his 2018/2021 numbers and the CA GOP holds a smaller percentage of Sacramento/House seats by 2028 compared to 2018.
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