Who wins each competitive governor’s race? (Part 2)

[Tekken_Guy]

And here’s the “second tier” governors races. Who wins these and do you think there are any surprises?

[Senator Incitatus]

The only potential upsets even on my radar are Bailey and Jensen; I voted for them just to give the poll some flavor. I think Zeldin will amount to the best losing Republican performance in New York since 1982, but that's not saying too much.

I don't actually think Jensen would be too massive an upset; perception of that race is skewed by just two polls, albeit the only two taken after Dobbs.

[coloradocowboi]

Jensen I could see. Bailey is going nowhere lol.

[Calthrina950]

The only potential upsets even on my radar are Bailey and Jensen; I voted for them just to give the poll some flavor. I think Zeldin will amount to the best losing Republican performance in New York since 1982, but that's not saying too much.

I don't actually think Jensen would be too massive an upset; perception of that race is skewed by just two polls, albeit the only two taken after Dobbs.

Bailey has no chance, and at the rate his campaign has been proceeding at, he would be lucky to keep the margin to single digits. As for Jensen, he is not the weakest Republican candidate running, and I could easily see him coming within single digits also. But Walz is popular and Minnesota continues to have a stubborn Democratic lean. It's hard for me to envision a Republican victory there this year.

I do agree with you about Zeldin though. I believe he is going to clear 40%, and if he overperforms expectations, could even get into the mid-40s. Hochul has clearly been hurt by her association with Cuomo (even though she and Cuomo weren't close, she was part of his administration for several years), and issues such as the coronavirus pandemic, crime, and inflation probably haven't helped her either. Zeldin will also benefit from pro-Republican trends among minorities and in Upstate, and will be boosted by his "native son" status in Suffolk County.

[Real Texan Politics]

I wish you could’ve allowed us to remove our vote because I accidentally voted O’Rourke in this poll despite repeatedly saying on this site that he has no chance.

But aside from that, the only person here who really has a serious shot at an upset is Jensen, but that’ll depend on how much damage the weed parties inflict on Walz and the rest of the dems.

[wesmoorenerd]

Basically none of these have any real upset potential. If you're looking for an upset, look at Abrams or Drazan.

[Skill and Chance]

Outside chance of O'Rourke or Zeldin.  There's a limit to how much you can pander to the base. 

[Burke Bro]

Hot take: Klaus is the most likely gubernatorial candidate on this list to win in an upset. McKee was never elected governor in his own right, barely won his own primary, and his administration is  under investigation by the FBI. Rhode Island is a smaller state that makes it prone to greater electoral swings and its demographic profile is a lot more favorable to republicans than it’s recent presidential record would suggest. It also helps that while Klaus is by no means a liberal Republican, she’s intentionally distanced herself from Trump/election lies and has chosen to run a campaign that’s almost entirely focused on economic problems.